Duke needs Jalen Johnson to play like a lottery pick in order to make NCAA tournament
By this point, like so many Duke freshmen in recent years, Jalen Johnson was expected to be in conversations for ACC player of the year and first-team All-America.
Yet there the athletic 6-foot-9 forward was Saturday night, out of the Blue Devils’ starting lineup for a game with North Carolina that Duke lost, 91-87.
Johnson played well in the game, stuffing the box score with 14 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists, plus a block and a steal.
His talents are so wide-ranging NBA draft analysts still project him to be a top-10 pick this summer if he turns pro.
The disconnect between that future and the player deemed not worthy of starting for Duke against a fierce rival says plenty about why the Blue Devils (7-7, 5-5 ACC) are out of the rankings and out of NCAA tournament projections.
A foot injury, which Duke hasn’t provided any specificity about, sidelined Johnson for three Duke games and all but four minutes of another between Dec. 15 and Jan. 12. He wore a protective boot and missed weeks of important practice time.
“It really hurt him to miss that much time,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said Monday. “Not just conditioning, although he’s not in that bad of condition. Just to learn about the physicality of the game and just how hard it is. Especially because he’s guarding big guys.”
Johnson averages 12.3 points and leads Duke with 7.2 rebounds per game. He’s also blocked 1.4 shots per game, tops on the Blue Devils.
But his play hasn’t been consistent and his time away due to the injury is part of it.
Though he’s medically cleared to practice and play, the foot injury remains something Duke’s medical staff is monitoring closely. Johnson’s pro career could be negatively impacted if the injury isn’t handled properly.
He had another MRI exam Sunday night, which showed good news.
“We take precautions,” Krzyzewski said. “We had him do an MRI last night, just to make sure everything’s OK. Not because he was having problems. And it actually showed really good stuff, a lot better than it was in December. But you’ve got to be careful. The thing that we’re monitoring for him is, if it’s not done right — and it is being done right — it could be a major factor in his career.”
Johnson playing to his full potential could certainly cure a lot of what’s ailing the Blue Devils this season.
He looked like an NBA lottery pick and an All-American Jan. 19 at Pittsburgh in his first full game back from the foot injury. Johnson came off the bench to score 24 points with 16 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 blocked shots and no turnovers in 33 minutes.
Duke lost 79-73 but it looked like the team could be a force in the ACC with Johnson playing like that.
Unfortunately for Johnson and the Blue Devils, he scored 9 points with 6 turnovers in a 70-65 loss at Louisville four days later.
He had 18 points and six rebounds, but three turnovers, when Duke beat Georgia Tech 79-68 on Jan. 26. He turned in another 9-point performance Jan. 30 when Duke blasted Clemson, 79-53, in the team’s best game of the season. Johnson also contributed eight rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals with just one turnover in 28 minutes.
Again, it looked like Johnson and Duke were ready to take off.
“He’s a really good talent who is trying to become a really good player,” Krzyzewski said that day. “He sees himself growing in that regard, especially the physicality of the game.”
Since then, he scored 13 when Duke lost 77-75 at Miami on Feb. 1, and 14 points when the Blue Devils lost to North Carolina on Saturday.
The Miami game was particularly problematic, though. Johnson started but turned the ball over three times in the game’s first 14 minutes and finished with four turnovers.
Krzyzewski removed him from the starting lineup, although Johnson did play 24 minutes with only two turnovers against the Tar Heels.
“Jalen has come along well,” Krzyzewski said.
But, clearly, Johnson has not impacted this Duke team like recent freshmen stars Marvin Bagley, Wendell Carter, Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish and Vernon Carey have. The first five on that list became NBA Draft Lottery picks while Carey, the ACC’s freshman of the year in 2020, went in the second round to the Charlotte Hornets in 2020.
Duke is running out of games and time this season for Johnson to reach his potential in a Blue Devils uniform. Including Tuesday night’s game with Notre Dame, Duke has just eight regular-season games left on the schedule.
The Blue Devils would have to win most, if not all, of them to be in consideration for a 25th consecutive NCAA tournament bid. A fully functioning Johnson could make that probable, but college basketball has yet to see that from him game-to-game this season.