One big key to Duke’s recent success? Taking care of the basketball
Taking better care of the basketball, cherishing each possession, goes a long way toward explaining why Duke is posting wins where losses were the result earlier this season.
As the Blue Devils prepare to face Louisville pn Saturday night at Cameron Indoor Stadium, a quick glance to the last time the two teams met this season shows Duke’s improvement.
In losing 70-65 at Louisville on Jan. 23, the Blue Devils turned the ball over 15 times or a whopping 22.7% of their possessions in the game. The Cardinals converted those turnovers into 17 points to pull out the five-point win.
During the three-game losing streak earlier this month that saw Duke saddled with a losing record, the Blue Devils averaged 13.1 turnovers per game in losing 77-75 at Miami, 91-87 to North Carolina and 93-89 to Notre Dame.
UNC turned Duke’s 15 turnovers into 30 points.
Fewer turnovers equals more wins
But during the four-game winning streak that has vaulted Duke (11-8, 9-6 ACC) back into NCAA tournament consideration, the Blue Devils have averaged 11 turnovers per game.
Virginia managed just 12 points off Duke’s 10 turnovers when the Blue Devils beat the Cavaliers 66-65 last Saturday.
When the Blue Devils beat Wake Forest 84-60 in Winston-Salem on Feb. 17, they committed a season-low six turnovers and the Demon Deacons scored just two points off of them.
“Our team, in general, it’s been great attention to detail,” Duke associate head coach Jon Scheyer told the News & Observer Thursday. “Just understanding the value of a possession, the value of not turning the ball over. When you trade giving them layups with getting a good shot off, even if you don’t make all of them, I was never a math major but you do the math and it really swings in your favor dramatically.”
It’s part of the team’s growth and development through experience, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. A play or two here and there, a layup the other way after a turnover, perhaps, marked the difference between winning and losing.
Now, the Blue Devils are making the plays needed to win.
“We’ve been in a lot of tough games,” Krzyzewski said. “When we were 7-8, you’re two possessions from being 5-10 but you’re a couple possessions from being 9-6. It’s not like they were horrible … we lost close games. They’ve learned from that without losing confidence. I’m really proud of them. They’ve been good the whole year and even when we lost, I told you they were good kids and they were working hard. We just wanted to play one game at a time and work to get better. We are getting better and, hopefully, we don’t get anybody hurt.”
Youngsters in backcourt adjusting
The Blue Devils start freshmen DJ Steward and Jeremy Roach in the backcourt. Naturally, they’ve had to adjust to college play.
Steward, for example, turned the ball over four times while scoring 10 points in 22 minutes of play in Duke’s loss to Notre Dame on Feb. 9.
Since then, he’s committed four turnovers combined while playing 118 minutes during Duke’s four-game winning streak. He averaged 14.5 points per game during that stretch.
He played 27 turnover-free minutes against Virginia, a team known first and foremost for its defense.
Steward and Roach did each commit three turnovers against the Syracuse zone on Monday night, but they also each had seven assists. That 2-to-1 turnover ratio is something coaches welcome.
“Jeremy and DJ, the strides they’ve taken have been huge,” Scheyer said. “We feel like those guys should be as good of a starting backcourt as there is.”
It’s not just the guards, though. Turnovers were an area where Jalen Johnson struggled before he decided on Feb. 15 to end his college career and prepare for the NBA Draft.
Johnson turned the ball over 23.6% of his possessions, according to KenPom.com. That included six turnovers in Duke’s earlier loss at Louisville.
Roach is still at 22.8% but Steward has lowered his turnover percentage to 17.6%. Sophomore Wendell Moore’s turnover percentage is down to 18.2%.
As such, Duke’s turnover rate as a team, which was 21.5% in December, is now 18.6%. That’s No. 148 nationally and slightly better than the national average of 19.1%.
The Blue Devils turned it over at a 16.4% rate against Virginia and 9.8% when beating Wake Forest.
“Their turnover rate has definitely gone down,” ACC Network basketball analyst Dalen Cuff told the News & Observer on Thursday. “Over the course of the season it’s still in the bottom half of the league. But it has been much better as of late. That’s a key part. You cannot give teams easy baskets and expect to win, especially when their margin is still thin. They are not going to blow teams away with talent like Duke teams of the past that overwhelm you.”
A step backward against Syracuse
Duke’s turnovers did creep back up to 14, at a 20.6% clip, against Syracuse on Monday night. So all is not fixed, of course.
It also must be pointed out that the Orange is highly adept at forcing turnovers with its zone defense. Syracuse forces opponents into turnovers 21.1% of the time.
But, still, the Blue Devils have shown the ability to take care of the ball better and that will serve them well as they seek an NCAA tournament berth.
This story was originally published February 26, 2021 at 8:00 AM.