If Duke is going to beat UNC, here’s what the Blue Devils are going to have to do
Duke’s ability to run the ball so well this season is the major reason why the Blue Devils have already surpassed last season’s win total.
Now, the challenge is for that strength to help them swing their rivalry with North Carolina back in their favor.
Duke enters Saturday’s noon game with the Tar Heels with the ACC’s No. 1 rushing offense in a number of statistical areas, including total rushing yards, average per carry, rushing touchdowns and rushing yards per game.
Preseason all-ACC running back Mataeo Durant, quarterback Gunnar Holmberg and what’s proven to be a solid offensive line have thrived while leading Duke to a 3-1 record thus far.
“I think the offensive staff, in their research in the offseason, their work in the spring, I think they’ve done a really good job of elevating our approach to running the football,” Duke coach David Cutcliffe said. “And I think that’s going to continue to grow.”
Duke has been on the wrong end of games with UNC the last two seasons, including a 56-24 hammering last November at Wallace Wade Stadium.
Duke’s players had to relive that game this week, an admittedly “painful” process in scouting the Tar Heels.
Tough memories from Chapel Hill
But an even more stinging loss occurred a year earlier at Chapel Hill when the Tar Heels held on to win 20-17. That win, secured only when the Tar Heels intercepted a Duke pass in the end zone with 14 seconds left, ended Duke’s three-game winning streak in the rivalry.
Yes, an ill-fated halfback option pass when it looked like Duke would get either the game-winning touchdown or a field goal to force overtime, flipped the rivalry back in UNC’s direction.
And that brings the conversation back to Duke’s top-rated rushing game this season, because it means taking a gamble on such a play in that situation doesn’t have to happen again.
How a team performs offensively in the red zone can make all the difference in winning and losing games. Settling for field goals, or, worse, turning the ball over, rather than scoring touchdowns upon reaching the opponent’s 20 usually comes back to bite a team.
That was the case for Duke during its 2-9 season a year ago. On 35 possessions that reached the red zone, the Blue Devils scored 28 times (80%). Duke’s touchdown percentage, 51.4% with 18 touchdowns, was 13th in the ACC.
Now, compare that to this season where Duke, through four nonconference games, has points on 18 of its 20 red-zone possessions. That 90% efficiency is second in the ACC.
Duke has 14 touchdowns for a 70% efficiency that’s No. 6 in the ACC.
Confident play calling
That ability to rely on the run gives Cutcliffe and co-offensive coordinator and game-day play-caller Jeff Faris confidence to call plays that are less risky and more reliable in red zone situations when the field shrinks and gets crowded.
This scenario already played out for Duke this season.
Late in the first half of a game with N.C. A&T, Duke moved to the Aggies 2 with five seconds to play in a tie game. Rather than kick the field goal, the Blue Devils executed a running play where Durant rushed up the middle for the 2-yard touchdown.
That’s one of 17 rushing touchdowns the Blue Devils have through four games this season. Only one other ACC team (Syracuse, 13) has more than 12 rushing touchdowns.
All but four of Duke’s rushing touchdowns have come on red-zone plays. Duke’s next rushing touchdown from the red zone will match the 14 such rushing scores the Blue Devils had last season.
Here’s why: Duke averaged 1.97 yards per rush in the red zone last season. This season, that average is 4.37 yards.
For the season, in all situations, Duke averages an ACC-best 5.31 yards per carry. Durant, the ACC’s No. 2 rusher with 525 yards (131.3 per game), is a major factor there.
Holmberg has six rushing touchdowns, including four in last Saturday’s 52-33 win over Kansas.
And they are running behind what Cutcliffe said “is one of our better offensive lines.”
That commitment to the run even extends to the tight ends and wide receivers.
“We have a phrase for it here: body on body,” Duke senior wide receiver Jake Bobo said. “Not looking back when you know the ball is moving, especially with 21 (Durant) because you know he’s going to make something shake out of nowhere.”
Duke enters Saturday’s game at UNC as essentially a three-touchdown underdog (20.5 points).
It’s ability to run the ball from everywhere on the field, particularly in the red zone, is the Blue Devils best chance to flip those odds in their favor. A solid rushing offense will only increase its productivity if Holmberg maintains his 72% completion rate.
“If we have success throwing the ball, and particularly when it’s a high percentage, that helps you run game,” Cutcliffe said. “Because balance is still critical in football.”
This story was originally published October 1, 2021 at 5:50 AM.