How did loss to Virginia impact Duke’s NCAA tournament seeding? Here’s a look
With the exception of last season’s pandemic-altered reality, Duke is among teams that regularly are assured of NCAA tournament inclusion when the calendar turns to February.
So while other teams look for wins to boost a resume and get them off the bubble and, hopefully, in the field, the Blue Devils are angling for seeding.
With that in mind, Virginia’s 69-68 win over Duke Monday night offered a little bit of both.
The Cavaliers entered the game No. 88 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ratings. That’s a long way from the bubble.
Duke was No. 10 in the NET, riding a five-game winning streak and still had hopes for a top 2 seed in an NCAA tournament regional.
Virginia gained the edge, proving the more physical and resilient team, walking out of Cameron Indoor Stadium with an upset win.
“What my guys don’t understand,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said, “is that these teams are fighting for NCAA bids. “Virginia has such a rich tradition. They’re an outstanding program. And they play really well, but teams are hungry and we’ve got to be hungry after we’ve eaten. We had a big meal, but we have to be hungry again, and I thought they were hungrier than we were.”
We know what the result meant to Virginia (15-9, 9-5 ACC). The Cavaliers moved up eight spots to No. 80 in Tuesday’s updated NET ratings. They have much work left to do to dig out of the hole their early season doldrums left them in. But Monday was a big help.
How does Virginia loss impact Duke?
As for Duke (19-4, 9-3 ACC), the quest to prove worthy of one of the top eight seeds nationally, either No. 1 or No. 2 in a regional, just got tougher.
Yes, the Blue Devils have impressive wins over two teams currently among the NET’s top four. Duke topped No. 1 Gonzaga, 84-81, in Las Vegas on Nov. 26 after opening the season Nov. 9 in New York beating No. 4 Kentucky, 79-71.
But the Blue Devils fell from No. 10 to 13 in the NET on Tuesday. The Virginia loss is currently the worst of Duke’s four setbacks, an unsightly Quad 3 loss since it came at home to a team rated worse than No. 75. Of course, if the Cavaliers continue to play like they did against Duke the rest of the season, they could easily improve to within 31 and 75 in the NET ratings to make this a Q2 loss for the Blue Devils.
But, until then, Duke now joins only LSU and UCLA among teams in the NET top 20 with a Q3 loss.
And Duke’s Q3 losses could double. Miami beat Duke, 76-74, at Cameron on Jan. 8. The Hurricanes (16-7, 8-4 ACC) are currently No. 72 in the NET, perilously close from a Duke perspective from falling below 75 to turn what’s now a Q2 loss into a Q3.
No. 24 Alabama, with a 6-2 record in Q3 games, is the only team among the NET top 35 with two Q3 losses.
What tournament seed is Duke in line for?
Duke’s current resume, even with those wins over Gonzaga and Kentucky, is not one of a No. 1 seed.
The Blue Devils are 5-1 in Q1 games, which are against top 30 teams at home, top 75 teams on the road and top 50 teams in neutral site games.
That compares favorably to the top four NET teams: Gonzaga is 5-2 in Q1, while Houston is 2-2, Arizona is 4-2 and Kentucky is 5-4.
The problem for Duke is those teams are unbeaten in games that fall in the other three quadrants. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are 2-2 in Q2 to go with their current 6-1 in Q3.
Duke’s other two losses, 71-66 at Ohio State on Nov. 30 and 79-78 in overtime on Jan. 18 at Florida State, aren’t currently as damaging as the Virginia and Miami results.
Ohio State is No. 17 so the Buckeyes would have to completely collapse for that to fall out of the Q1 category.
Florida State (13-9, 6-6 ACC), though, has lost four in a row and is currently No. 85 in the NET. So that game is part of Duke’s 2-2 record in Q2 games. The Seminoles could win a few games to get above 75 and move it back into Q1 for Duke.
But the Blue Devils also play Florida State at Cameron on Feb. 19. At this point, that will be a Q3 result on Duke’s record.
And that exposes the problems with the ACC not having its usual array of top-rated teams. Duke could overcome its lower quad losses with more Q1 wins. But they simply aren’t available this season with Duke at No. 13 and the next two best ACC teams at No. 42 (North Carolina) and No. 43 Virginia Tech.
What does Duke have left on schedule?
The Blue Devils are done with Virginia Tech in the regular season. UNC comes to Durham March 5 but that would be a Q2 result at this point.
Duke still has road games at Clemson on Thursday, Boston College on Saturday, Virginia Feb. 23, Syracuse Feb. 26 and Pittsburgh March 1.
No. 78 Clemson, No. 80 Virginia and No. 86 Syracuse are all Q2 games currently while Boston College (No. 170) and Pitt (No. 201) fall into Q3.
Duke’s January losses to Miami and Florida State already had it projected as a No. 2 seed, at best, by the various NCAA tournament bracket prognosticators. Many had Duke as a No. 3 seed.
The loss to Virginia likely killed any hopes Duke had for a No. 1 seed. Snagging a No. 2 seed would require heavy lifting from here on out. That would mean keeping the hunger Krzyzewski referenced for every game winning most if not all of them.
That leaves Duke most likely looking at a No. 3 seed at best. That is unless they lack the hunger and suffer more losses like Monday.
After the Blue Devils went 13-11 last season to miss the tournament for the first time since 1995, no one with the team will complain about a No. 3 seed.
But if the team wants to add another Final Four and national championship to Krzyzewski’s remarkable career before it ends after this season, a strong finish to perhaps grab a No. 2 seed would help.
This story was originally published February 9, 2022 at 5:20 AM.