Coach K and Tom Izzo meet again. Here’s a breakdown of Duke, Michigan State matchup
Since NCAA tournament bracketing principles are designed to avoid regular-season rematches in early rounds, scouting is a crash course because of unfamiliarity.
Though they haven’t played this season, that still won’t be the case for Duke and Michigan State when they play a West Region second-round game at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on Sunday at 5:15 p.m.
Because they’re so often paired up in the annual Champions Classic and ACC-Big Ten Challenge events, this is the sixth consecutive season the Blue Devils and Spartans have played.
Clearly, coaching titans Mike Krzyzewski of Duke and Tom Izzo of Michigan State know what they are facing in each other’s teams.
“I like the game,” Izzo said Friday night after the Spartans edged Davidson, 74-73. “I just don’t like the record in that matchup over the years.”
Yes, Krzyzewski’s Blue Devils are 12-3 against Izzo’s Spartans since Izzo replaced Jud Heathcote as Michigan State’s head coach in 1995. But Izzo has topped Krzyzewski in two of the past three seasons, including a 68-67 win in their most recent NCAA tournament appearance in the 2019 East Region final.
Izzo and Krzyzewski’s teams have met six times in the NCAA tournament, more than any other coaching pairing in tournament history.
But enough of that history. Here’s what to expect from this season’s Spartans as they face Duke with a Sweet 16 berth on the line.
What has Michigan State accomplished thus far?
The Spartans (23-12) started the regular season on the same night, in the same venue, as Duke. Back on Nov. 9 in the Champions Classic at New York’s Madison Square Garden, Michigan State lost 87-74 to Kansas before Duke beat Kentucky 79-71.
The Spartans responded well, though, sprinting to a 14-2 start by early January. A month later, at 17-4 and 8-2 in Big Ten play, Michigan State hit a rut and sputtered for the next four weeks. But while going 2-7, all of those losses but one (Penn State) were to teams that made the NCAA tournament.
Michigan State went 11-9 in Big Ten play and beat Maryland and Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament before losing 75-70 to Purdue in the semifinals.
The Spartans entered the NCAA tournament as the No. 7 seed in the West and advanced with their win over No. 10 seed Davidson on Friday night.
Izzo’s veteran team
Unlike Duke’s team that relies heavily on freshmen Paolo Banchero, A.J. Griffin and Trevor Keels, Michigan State started three seniors against Davidson in 6-8 Gabe Brown, 6-9 Joey Houser and 7-0 Marcus Bingham.
Brown leads the Spartans in scoring at 11.4 points per game. Bingham contributes 9.1 points and a team-best 6.1 rebounds. Though Houser averages a modest 7.3 points per game, he poured in 27 points against Davidson.
Michigan State does have a talented freshman starter in Max Christie, a 6-6 guard who averages 9.3 points per game. Sophomore A.J. Hoggard, a 6-4 guard, rounds out the starting five. Hoggard leads the Spartans in assists at 4.9 per game.
Juniors Malik Hall, a 6-8 forward, and Tyson Walker, a 6-0 guard, are Michigan State’s top reserves.
Targeting turnovers
For the season, Michigan State averaged 13.1 turnovers per game, struggling often to take care of the ball. According to KenPom.com, the Spartans turn the ball over on 19% of their possessions to rank No. 224 nationally. The national average is 18.4%.
Despite turning the ball over 16 times (22.9% of possessions) in their Big Ten tournament second-round game with Maryland, Michigan State won 76-72.
But the Spartans are trending in the right direction entering their game with Duke. Over the last three games, Michigan State’s largest amount of turnovers has been seven. That’s how many the Spartans had against Davidson, when they turned it over on just 10.9% of their possessions.
Duke has not been great at forcing turnovers of late. Fullerton only turned it over eight times in losing 78-61 to the Blue Devils on Friday night. Virginia Tech, in beating Duke 82-67 in the ACC championship game, committed just nine turnovers.
Conversely, Michigan State defensively has been poor at forcing turnovers. KenPom shows Spartan opponents have turned it over on just 15.3% of possessions, which is No. 330 nationally.
Duke averages 10.3 turnovers per game, committing them on just 15.1% of possessions.
So as long as the Blue Devils aren’t overly careless with the ball, they should be able to get enough shots to be successful. The key will be making them, of course.
Guard the shooters
Michigan State is a solid 3-point shooting team, having made 37.4% of them this season to rank No. 22 nationally. The Spartans beat Davidson despite hitting just 7 of 26 (26.9%) on Friday night.
Three Michigan State players have hit 40% or better from behind the arc in Walker (47.8%), Hall (43.3%) and Houser (41.5%). Brown, the team’s leading scorer, has hit a strong 37.3%.
Duke has only allowed teams to hit 31.4% of their 3-pointers this season.
So this battle will help determine who wins and advances on Sunday.
This story was originally published March 19, 2022 at 12:56 PM.