Three things to watch as Duke and Texas Tech battle in NCAA tournament Sweet 16
Duke scores at a high level, and Texas Tech is adept at stopping teams from scoring.
Thus a clash of wills is in the offing Thursday night when the teams meet in the NCAA tournament’s West Regional semifinals at Chase Center.
The Blue Devils (30-6) are No. 4 in the nation in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, producing 1.203 points per possession. Texas Tech (27-9) is No. 1 in defensive efficiency, having allowed 0.844 points per possession.
Duke scores 80.3 points per game, Texas Tech allows 60.2 points per game.
Whichever team prevails Thursday night moves on to the regional final, one win from the Final Four.
There’s plenty on the line and plenty of fight on both sides.
“We know what it takes to win,” Duke sophomore center Mark Williams said, “and we’re willing to do that.”
Here are three areas that could decide the game
Duke’s ball movement
Spending the game trying to win one-on-one battles won’t serve Duke well on offense. Instead, a way to monitor how well things are going for the Blue Devils is to see how many assists they pick up in relation to field goals made.
The Red Raiders like to clog the middle and collapse their defense when opponents get the ball there. Thus, Duke has to keep the ball moving to find open shooters and then hit the shots.
“They swarm the ball,” Duke freshman Paolo Banchero said Wednesday. “There’s two, three guys at the ball as soon as you get in the paint. So really not just trying to go one-on-one and isolate. There’s not going to be a lot of opportunities for that really with the way they play, so it’s really just going to come down to moving the ball, playing together and taking quality shots as a team.”
For example, when Gonzaga beat Texas Tech, 69-55, back on Dec. 18, the Zags picked up assists on 66.7% of their field goals. They hit 13 3-pointers and scored 1.08 points per possession.
“We’re going to have to make a lot of connecting plays,” Duke junior forward Wendell Moore said. “This can really be a game where you have a lot of assists, a lot of made shots. We all just have to be shot-ready because they leave people open sometimes, like around the perimeter, around the three. We’re ready to shoot, knock down some shots, then I think we’ll be in a good spot.”
The turnover battle
As mentioned above, Texas Tech is adept and swarming and knocking the ball away from players who don’t focus on protecting it. Red Raiders opponents have committed 16 turnovers per game this season, turning over on 23.5% of their possessions, per KenPom.com. Texas Tech is No. 11 in the country in that defensive category.
Watch Banchero here. He turned it over five times in Duke’s 85-76 win over Michigan State last Sunday.
But the Red Raiders aren’t particularly strong with the ball themselves when they are on offense. They’ve turned it over 13.6 times per game, doing so on 20% of their possessions. That rate, 1 of every 5 times they have the ball, leaves them No. 255 nationally.
Their best player, Bryson Williams, is good here, not turning the ball over much at all. But point guard Adonis Arms, forward Marcus Santos-Silva and small forward Davion Warren have been susceptible here as they’ve all turned it over 20% of the time or more.
Offensive rebounds
Anyone who has watched Duke all season knows the Blue Devils get in trouble when they fail to secure defensive rebounds, which create second-chance opportunities for opposing offenses.
Fittingly, Texas Tech’s tough, physical players are very good at grabbing offensive rebounds. The Red Raiders have rebounded 33.1% of their missed shots, No. 40 nationally. The national average is 28.1.
Duke has allowed its opponents to rebound 28.9% of their missed shots. That leaves the Blue Devils No. 217 nationally as a defense.
Michigan State rebounded 32.4% of its misses last Sunday against Duke. Cal State Fullerton secured 30% of its. Of course, Duke beat both teams so failure here isn’t lethal to the Blue Devils. But that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t strive to be better.
This story was originally published March 23, 2022 at 6:20 AM.