On the verge of bowl eligibility, Duke football aims to ‘get greedy in November’
Saturday’s resounding win changed the outlook on Duke’s football season.
Already a surprise through the season’s first seven games, the Blue Devils’ 45-21 win at Miami left them one win from bowl game eligibility.
After going 5-18 over the past two seasons combined, Duke (5-3, 2-2 ACC) needs just one win in its final four games to qualify for college football’s postseason.
It caused Mike Elko, Duke’s first-year head coach who has won as many games in eight games this season as David Cutcliffe did in 23 games over the previous two seasons, to think beyond mere bowl eligibility.
“Let’s go get greedy in November,” Elko said he told the players in the postgame locker room at Miami on Saturday. “Let’s see what we can really get done.”
The last time Duke won five games in a season was 2019, when the Blue Devils went 5-7. They stumbled 2-9 and 3-9 records over the past two seasons, losing 17 of 18 ACC games during 2020 and 2021.
Now, with a week to go in October, Pro Football Focus projects Duke to win seven games and has the Blue Devils’ chances of winning six games to play in a bowl game at 94%.
ESPN’s Football Power Index ratings put Duke’s bowl chances at 97.8% while predicting at least seven wins.
Thus, Duke finds itself included in the various bowl matchup projections, such as one by CBSSports.com, which has the Blue Devils facing Minnesota in the Dec. 29 Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in New York.
Athlonsports.com also projects that Pinstripe Bowl matchup.
ESPN’s projections have Duke playing either Purdue in the Pinstripe Bowl or Oregon State in the Dec. 30 Sun Bowl at El Paso, Texas.
ProFootballNetwork.com has Duke playing Oklahoma in the First Responder Bowl at Dallas on Dec. 27.
The more games Duke wins in November, the better its bowl destination will be in the team’s first postseason trip since 2018.
The Blue Devils don’t have a game this week as they enjoy their open week. Of Duke’s four remaining games, two are against teams with losing records before the last two are against the teams that played in the ACC championship game last season.
Two are at home and two are on the road.
Here’s the rest of Duke’s schedule:
NOV. 4, AT BOSTON COLLEGE
Record: 2-5, 1-4 ACC
So far: The Eagles stumbled out of the gate this season, losing 22-21 at home to Rutgers before dropping a 27-10 game at Virginia Tech. Things haven’t gotten much better and the Eagles have lost three of their past four games. Boston College averages 19.3 points per game while allowing 31 points per game. Both statistics rank in the bottom four of the ACC. Only four ACC teams have more turnovers (11) than BC. Zay Flowers is an all-ACC wide receiver. Other than that, the Eagles are struggling.
Duke success meter: The Blue Devils are in line to clinch bowl eligibility in this one. Duke could even be a road favorite here to celebrate in the Boston suburbs on a crisp, fall night.
NOV. 12, VIRGINIA TECH
Record: 2-5, 1-3 ACC
So far: The Hokies are on a four-game losing streak entering Thursday night’s game at N.C. State, as Brent Pry’s first season as their head coach is not going well. Another struggling offense (19.1 points per game) leaves Virginia Tech near the bottom of the ACC in scoring offense. Only Virginia and Georgia Tech have fewer touchdowns than the Hokies’ 16.
Duke success meter: Looking stronger by the week. The Hokies average only 107.3 rushing yards per game. Among ACC teams only Boston College is worst at 67.6 yards a game. Duke has the league’s No. 1 rushing attack (205.1 yards per game). The Blue Devils just might hold the ball most of the game and send the large number of Virginia Tech fans who normally pack Wallace Wade Stadium’s visiting side home unhappy.
NOV. 19, AT PITTSBURGH
Record: 4-3, 1-2
So far: Last year’s ACC champions, Pittsburgh is also struggling on offense despite having one of the league’s best running backs. Israel Abanikanda, producing 137 yards per game, is the only ACC back averaging more than 99 yards. But starting quarterback Kedon Slovis has five interceptions to go with five touchdowns. The Panthers’ 12 turnovers are twice as many as Duke (six) has committed.
Duke success meter: History says not great. Duke hasn’t defeated Pittsburgh since 2014, going 1-7 against the Panthers in ACC play. Elko has changed Duke’s recent history. Still, Pitt figures to be the favorite.
NOV. 26, WAKE FOREST
Record: 6-1, 2-1 ACC
So far: The No. 10 Demon Deacons are ranked in the top 10 for just the second time. The previous ranking came a year ago. That’s the tremendous job Dave Clawson has done, putting the win in Winston-Salem lately. A double-overtime loss to Clemson is Wake’s lone blemish but it will likely keep the Deacs from playing in the ACC title game for the second season in a row. Still, Wake is headed for an attractive bowl appearance, something that’s becoming a regular thing.
Duke success meter: Still can’t see a win coming from this one. Wake owns a three-game winning streak in the series with wins in four of the past five games. Wake quarterback Sam Hartman and his collection of big-play receivers figure to be too much for the Blue Devils.
This story was originally published October 25, 2022 at 6:40 AM.