If Duke basketball wants to play deep into March, here’s one area Blue Devils need to fix
One impediment that has kept Duke from scoring more points this season has, predictably, shown up in the Blue Devils’ worst performances.
In an 81-59 loss at Miami last Monday and in N.C. State’s 84-60 win over Duke on Jan. 4, the Blue Devils turned the ball over 21 times in each game.
At Miami, a whopping 30.4% of Duke’s possessions ended with a turnover, according to KenPom.com. At N.C. State, Duke’s turnover percentage was 29.6%.
In between those games, Duke kept its turnover percentage far lower for the most part. That includes a 15.9% rate when the Blue Devils beat Miami, 68-66, at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Jan. 21 and even a 10.9% rate when they lost 78-75 at Virginia Tech two nights later.
In both of those games, Duke’s turnover rate was lower than the national average (18.5%).
That’s what made Monday night’s performance so maddening, Duke coach Jon Scheyer said.
“It’s something we’ve been doing a great job of,” Scheyer said Thursday as his team prepared to play at No. 8 Virginia on Saturday. “We’ve really taken great care of the ball.”
Yep, sure enough, Duke had just 12 turnovers (18.2% turnover rate) while beating North Carolina, 63-57, two nights prior to losing at Miami. The game before UNC, a 75-73 home win over Wake Forest, Duke’s turnover rate was a tick higher at 20% to produce 14 turnovers.
It led Scheyer and the Blue Devils (17-7, 8-5 ACC) to believe they could be counted upon to take care of the ball and create more scoring chances. That belief proved unfounded at Miami.
“Sometimes you feel like you’re there,” Scheyer said, “and then all of a sudden you get knocked back and it’s, well, we’re not there. We have to take another jump.”
Both at Miami and at N.C. State, the Blue Devils fell behind by double-digits in the game’s first five minutes and scrambled, in futility, to catch up.
“We panicked a little bit,” Scheyer said, “and when you’re down, especially on the road, when things aren’t going as well, that’s when you need to stick even more with your habits. Trusting the game plan and trusting each other.”
Duke freshman point guard Tyrese Proctor, who had five turnovers at Miami, said the way the Blue Devils gave it away to the Hurricanes was the problem.
“I think it was just being careless with the ball,” Proctor said. “We’ve always said we’re fine with turnovers if they’re aggressive turnovers. I feel like turnovers that we had (at Miami) were sloppy and turnovers that we could we could control. Just being loose with the ball, just slightly passive, stuff like that.”
Relying on its solid defense and strong rebounding that have been superior to many opponents, Duke has not been a consistently strong scoring team this season.
In ACC play, Duke’s scoring offense (71 points per game) is No. 9 in the league. It’s shooting percentage of 44.2% is also No. 9 in the 15-team league.
In terms of turnovers per ACC game, Duke is No. 14 in the league with 13 per game. Only last-place Louisville (15.8 per game) has turned it over more than the Blue Devils in ACC games.
Duke strung together three consecutive wins prior to losing at Miami. In those three games, the Blue Devils had three of their better shooting games of the season, hitting a season-best 55.7% of their shots while beating Georgia Tech, 86-43, on Jan. 28, before making 52.3% while beating Wake Forest three nights later.
Duke’s shooting dipped to 39.3% while beating UNC.
But the Blue Devils turned the ball over at a lower rate in those three games than they had for the season.
Duke must improve its offensive efficiency to find the kind of success in March to make this season a special one. Hitting shots at a higher clip is one way to do that. The other way is to limit turnovers.
That job lies not only with ball-handling guards like Proctor and junior Jeremy Roach, but also with interior players like Kyle Filipowski, Dereck Lively and Ryan Young because the Blue Devils run their offense inside-out.
“It’s just valuing the ball and not getting set up,” Young said. “You’re obviously catching the ball in the post with a lot of defenders around, especially with double teams. Just allowing yourself to remain poised in that situation is gonna be the most important thing. Staying calm and not getting sped up by defenses.”
This story was originally published February 10, 2023 at 6:00 AM.