Where Duke basketball would be if NCAA tournament started now. Can Blue Devils improve?
The NCAA men’s basketball tournament bracket will be finalized and announced two weeks from Sunday.
In its first full season without Mike Krzyzewski as its head coach since 1980, Duke may not be in the running for a top seed, but the Blue Devils have done enough at this point to be solidly in the field of 68.
With three regular-season games remaining prior to the ACC tournament, Duke (20-8, 11-6 ACC) has enough high-quality wins along with a lack of bad losses to expect NCAA tournament inclusion.
Duke coach Jon Scheyer, a regular participant in the tournament as a Blue Devils player from 2006-10, and an assistant coach from 2013-22, knows nothing is guaranteed in mid-February. The Blue Devils can’t go on a season-ending losing streak and feel comfortable.
So, barring that unlikely occurrence, where can Duke expect to be seeded and sent for NCAA tournament play?
In a rare situation, it certainly appears the Blue Devils will be heading out of the area for the tournament’s first weekend.
Though Greensboro is one of eight sites for first- and second-round games, Duke isn’t in position for a top-four regional seed (top 16 overall) and thus is vulnerable to being shipped to any of the other seven sites.
Speaking of the top 16, the NCAA men’s basketball committee revealed its first peek at who it considers those teams on Feb. 18. Virginia, with a No. 3 seed, was the only ACC team included. Miami was listed among the first four out, indicating the Hurricanes would be a No. 5 regional seed.
Here’s a look at where Duke stands through 28 games, looking at metrics and tournament bracket projections, along with how the Blue Devils’ remaining regular-season schedule can help or hurt its NCAA tournament seed.
The Metrics
As of Friday, Duke sat No. 29 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), a sorting apparatus the committee uses that gives value to each win and loss and places them in one of four quadrants.
Quad 1 games are home games against teams ranked 1-30, neutral site games against teams 1-50 and road games against teams 1-75.
Quad 2 games are home games against 31-75, neutral against 51-100 and away against 76-135.
Quad 3 games are home vs 76-160, neutral vs 101-200 and away vs. 135-240
Quad 4 games are home vs 161-363, neutral vs 201-363 and away vs. 241-363
Entering Saturday’s game with Virginia Tech, the Blue Devils are 3-6 in Quad 1 games, 4-2 against Quad 2, 3-0 vs Quad 3 and 10-0 against Quad 4.
Two of Duke’s losses -- 81-70 at Wake Forest on Dec. 20 and 72-64 at Clemson on Jan. 14 -- continue to fluctuate between quads 1 and 2.
Clemson (20-8, 12-5) is now at No. 76, while Wake Forest (17-11, 9-8) has tumbled to No. 80. Thus those two losses have switched from Quad 1 to Quad 2 on Duke’s resume.
That loss to the No. 80 team represents Duke’s worst loss, which is better than many of its NET peers. Among the top 30 teams, 13 of them have at least one Quad 3 or Quad 4 loss. Duke has two outside of Quad 1 and none lower than Quad 2.
Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency-based statistical analysis has the Blue Devils No. 36 nationally.
With those numbers, Duke has a safe spot in the tournament field barring a season-ending losing streak.
The seed projections
The nation’s various bracket projectors all have Duke included in their fields of 68. Bracket Matrix’s list of 107 projections shows Duke’s average projected seed at 7.43, ranging from 6-10.
The only ACC teams with better average projected seeds are Virginia (3.22) and Miami (4.79).
Bart Torvik’s analytics projection looks at what he thinks each team’s resume will be when the bracket is released on March 12, not where they stand now.
His T-Ranketology assigns Duke a No. 9 seed, along with N.C. State, Missouri and Rutgers. The system projects Duke to go 2-1 over its final three regular-season games to enter the ACC tournament at 22-9.
The schedule
Duke’s three regular-season games include two more games at Cameron Indoor Stadium, where the Blue Devils are 14-0 this season, plus a road game at UNC.
Virginia Tech
Saturday, 8 p.m.
Duke’s 78-75 loss at Virginia Tech on Jan. 23 is rare in that it’s a Quad 1 result against a team likely to be playing on Tuesday at the ACC tournament. The Hokies (16-12, 6-11), who are No. 64 in the NET, have split their last eight games after losing 76-70 at home to Miami on Tuesday night.
The rematch at Cameron Indoor will be a Quad 2 game for Duke and the Blue Devils need to win it.
N.C. State
Feb. 28, 7 p.m.
The final two games of the regular season likely will determine if Duke gets a top-four ACC tournament seed and whether or not the Blue Devils can climb up the NCAA tournament seed board to six or five. The Wolfpack (22-7, 12-6) is currently No. 36 in the NET, making this a Quad 2 result for Duke since the game is at Cameron. NC State clobbered Duke, 84-60, in Raleigh last month.
At North Carolina
March 4, 6 p.m.
The Tar Heels (17-11, 9-8) are projected for lower ACC and NCAA tournament seeds than Duke at this point. UNC is No. 47 in the NET, so this will be a Quad 1 game for the Blue Devils. After winning, 77-55, at Syracuse on Feb. 18, Duke winning at UNC further help boost its road record in addition to offering a chance for another Quad 1 win.
This story was originally published February 17, 2023 at 6:50 AM.