It’s Selection Sunday. How will ACC basketball fare in NCAA tournament bracket?
With the ACC tournament completed and Duke crowned the league champion Saturday night at Greensboro Coliseum, a second consecutive season of NCAA tournament bracket angst hovers over the league.
No longer among the top two or three leagues in the country, the ACC has three teams certain to make the NCAA tournament, two others that are most likely in with one or two teams hoping against hope to be the league’s a sixth team in the field of 68.
That’s a long way from 2019, when Duke, North Carolina and Virginia were all NCAA tournament No. 1 seeds. In 2017 and 2018, the ACC sent nine teams to the NCAA tournament.
Last year, only five ACC teams made the field. It worked out well, as three of them made the Elite Eight before Duke and North Carolina advanced to the Final Four. Still, here the ACC is once again looking at having fewer of its teams make the NCAA tournament than usual.
To change that, teams like Clemson, North Carolina and Pittsburgh needed to win multiple ACC tournament games to shore up their resumes. Clemson blasted N.C State, 80-54, in Thursday night’s quarterfinals but was similarly slapped out of the tournament with a 76-56 loss to Virginia on Friday. UNC and Pitt were knocked out in the quarterfinals after winning second-round games on Wednesday.
No. 13 Virginia and No. 14 Miami, who tied for first in the ACC regular-season standings, are going to the NCAA tournament. So is No. 21 Duke which won the league title and claimed an automatic bid.
N.C. State and Pittsburgh look good to make the field although selection Sunday won’t be without angst for either now. Both cleared important hurdles with Wednesday wins before Duke blasted Pitt, 96-69, and N.C. State lost to Clemson in Thursday’s quarterfinals.
UNC’s 68-59 quarterfinal round loss to Virginia essentially eliminated the Tar Heels from the NCAA tournament.
So here’s a breakdown of the league’s NCAA tournament hopefuls, listing their NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) and Ken Pomeroy metrics, and looking at what they need to do at the ACC tournament to improve their lot.
Playing for NCAA seeds
Duke
Overall record: 26-8
ACC tournament seed: 4
Metrics: NET (16), KenPom (21).
BracketMatrix: Average seed (5.08), brackets included (111 of 111)
Next game: NCAA tournament
Current status: Claimed automatic berth
Breakdown: After a slow start to ACC play, Duke is on an nine-game winning streak with wins in 12 of its last 14 games. With no losses outside the top two quadrants, the Blue Devils have no serious black marks and have an 12-8 record against the top two quadrants. Their 5-6 record in Quad 1 games now has them in the running for a top five seed that could keep them in Greensboro to open the NCAA tournament.
Miami
Overall record: 25-7
ACC tournament seed: 1
Metrics: NET (35), KenPom (39).
BracketMatrix: Average seed (5.69), brackets included (111 of 111)
Next game: Certainly an NCAA tournament game
Current status: Just outside top 16
Breakdown: After making the Elite Eight last season, the Hurricanes are once again primed for a deep NCAA tournament run. Currently projected a No. 5 seed, Miami’s NET is held down by losses to Georgia Tech and Florida State. The Hurricanes needed another quality win, or two, in Greensboro to move up to a top-four seed and perhaps stay close to home in Orlando to start the NCAA tournament. The quarterfinal win over Wake didn’t help much and the Hurricanes missed an opportunity against Duke.
Virginia
Overall record: 25-7
ACC tournament seed: 2
Metrics: NET (26), KenPom (34).
BracketMatrix: Average seed (4.36), brackets included (111 of 111)
Next game: Certainly an NCAA tournament game
Current status: Among the top 16 seeds nationally
Breakdown: The Cavaliers have five quad 1 wins and are 11-6 against the top two quadrants. Virginia’s lone quad 3 loss (at Boston College) hurts it compared to other teams looking to be among the top four seeds in a regional. The Cavaliers have a great chance to play in Greensboro for the NCAA tournament’s first weekend.
Looking good, but...
N.C. State
Overall record: 23-10
ACC tournament seed: 6
Metrics: NET (45), KenPom (55).
BracketMatrix: Average seed (10.9), brackets included (96 of 111)
Next game: Done with ACC tournament
Current status: On right side of bubble
Breakdown: The Wolfpack avoided bad losses this season, which should give its fans plenty of solace. N.C. State is 15-0 in the bottom two quadrants. Eight wins in the top two quads look nice, with a 1-6 record in Quad 1. Beating Virginia Tech on Wednesday gave the Wolfpack another Quad 2 win. A third loss of the season to Clemson hurts but NC State has a strong enough resume to be in the field.
Pittsburgh
Overall record: 22-11
ACC tournament seed: 5
Metrics: NET (67), KenPom (78).
BracketMatrix: Average seed (10.99), brackets included (72 of 111)
Next game: Done with ACC tournament
Current status: Likely on right side of bubble
Breakdown: Pitt’s metrics are a little concerning but one loss each in quad 3 and quad 4. But the Panthers are 7-9 in the top two quadrants with four quad 1 wins. Wednesday’s win over Georgia Tech avoided an ugly loss, which should make for a more comfortable selection Sunday. The lopsided loss to Duke surely moved Pitt closer to being excluded, though.
A nervous Sunday ahead
Clemson
Overall record: 23-10
ACC tournament seed: 3
Metrics: NET (60), KenPom (64).
BracketMatrix: Average seed (11). Brackets included (2 of 111)
Next game: Done with ACC tournament
Current status: Outside looking in
Breakdown: The Tigers are 7-6 in the top two quadrants, with four Quad 1 wins. The bad thing is Clemson has two losses each in quads 3 and 4. Losing to last-place Louisville (4-28 record, 316 NET) in league play plus non-conference losses to South Carolina (11-21 record, 233 NET) and Loyola, Ill., (10-20 record, 268 NET) damaged the Tigers metrics such that they need multiple wins in Greensboro to play in the NCAA tournament. Whipping N.C. State, 80-54, for the third time this season was a great start. But the lopsided loss to Virginia is likely to leave the Tigers headed for an NIT bid.
North Carolina
Overall record: 20-12
ACC tournament seed: 7
Metrics: NET (46), KenPom (47).
BracketMatrix: Average seed (11), brackets included (2 of 111)
Next game: Done with ACC tournament
Current status: Outside looking in
Breakdown: No team ranked No. 1 in the preseason has missed the NCAA tournament since the field expanded to 64 teams, but the Tar Heels are staring straight at the ignominious accomplishment. UNC is 1-9 in Quad 1 games after losing 68-59 to Virginia on Thursday night. The Tar Heels needed that win and probably another Friday night to get the committee’s attention. It didn’t happen.
This story was originally published March 7, 2023 at 8:00 AM.