Scouting Duke basketball’s NCAA opponent: Top seed Houston stands in the Blue Devils’ way
Duke’s emphatic performance while advancing out of the NCAA Tournament’s first weekend earned the Blue Devils one of the toughest matchups in the field.
The South Region’s No. 4 seed, the Blue Devils will battle top-seeded Houston on Friday night at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.
The Cougars (32-4) have become one of the nation’s top teams under coach Kelvin Sampson over the past four seasons. This is the third season in a row Houston has won 30 games or more and the fourth time in Sampson’s 10 seasons at the school.
Houston made the Final Four in 2021, the Elite 8 in 2022 and is a No. 1 seed for the second consecutive tournament.
The final Associated Press Top 25 poll prior to the tournament had the Cougars at No. 2, which is also where they are in Ken Pomeroy’s national efficiency ratings.
So what do the Blue Devils face against the Cougars? A tough-minded defensive bunch, for starters.
Houston has allowed just 57.7 points per game this season, the lowest of any Division I team. Its opposition has made just 37.8% of field goal tries. That’s also the best in the nation.
While Duke has one senior starter in guard Jeremy Roach, the Cougars are much more experienced. Jamal Shead and LJ Cryer, a pair of 6-1 seniors, have started every Houston game this season. So, too, has rugged 6-8, 240-pound junior forward Ja’Vier Francis.
Another senior forward, 6-7, 235-pound J’Wan Roberts, has started 35 of 36 games, missing only a nonconference win over Penn last December.
Shead and Roberts were deep reserves on Houston’s 2021 Final Four team. Cryer played on Baylor’s 2021 NCAA championship team as a deep reserve and transferred to Houston to play this season.
Duke will have to find a way to run its offense against a Houston defense that challenges nearly every shot and is adept at forcing turnovers.
The Cougars have caused turnovers on 24.4% of their opponents’ possessions this season, according to KenPom.com. That’s No. 3 nationally and well above the national average of 17.1%. Only Iowa State, at 25.5%, is better among the NCAA Tournament’s remaining 16 teams.
A good number of those turnovers Houston forces come as a result of a steal, a sign of their aggressiveness in the passing lanes and with on-ball defense. The Cougars have ended 15.3% of their opponents’ possession with a steal, good for No. 2 nationally in that statistic.
Conversely, Duke has proven to be solid when it comes to taking care of the ball. The Blue Devils have only turned the ball over on 14.2% of their possessions. That’s No. 23 nationally. Duke had just six turnovers while pounding James Madison, 93-55, last Sunday night in the second round.
The Blue Devils are also a competent shooting team, particularly on 3-pointers. Duke has made 38.1% of its 3-pointers this season. That’s No. 13 nationally. The Blue Devils made 14 against James Madison, their season high for a single game as freshman guard Jared McCain drilled eight by himself.
Houston’s opponents have only made 30% of 3-pointers this season.
So watch the battle on both ends involving Roach, McCain and sophomore Tyrese Proctor from Duke against Cryer, Shead and sophomore Emanuel Sharp.
On the interior, 7-foot sophomore Kyle Filipowski and 6-9 sophomore Mark Mitchell will be physically challenged by Francis and Roberts. But Duke has a slight height advantage there and Houston has been susceptible to allowing offensive rebounds that give opponents second-chance points.
However, Houston has blocked 16.1% of shots taken against it this season. That’s No. 2 nationally and far above the national average of 9.3. At the same time, Duke has had 11.9% of its shots blocked this season, No. 340 among offenses nationally.
Duke and Houston both strive to reach Sunday’s South Region final against the winner of Friday night’s game between No. 2 seed Marquette and No. 11 seed N.C. State. While the Wolfpack shockingly won the ACC Tournament after a 10th-place finish in the regular season, Marquette entered the NCAA Tournament ranked No. 8 in The Associated Press poll.
It’s very possible the region’s top two seeds could knock out the ACC’s duo in Dallas and clash for a Final Four trip on Sunday. Or an NC State-Houston battle could ensue between the two schools that played in the memorable 1983 NCAA championship game in Albuquerque.
Of course, neighborhood rivals Duke and N.C. State could also meet again on Sunday for a third time since March arrived. Duke won, 79-64, at PNC Arena on March 4 before losing, 74-69, to the Wolfpack in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals March 14 in Washington, D.C.