How NC State can make a run into the national rankings

N.C. State will not start the 2018 season in the top 25. The way the first half of the Wolfpack’s schedule is set up, it will have a chance to move up the rankings.

N.C. State received 22 points in the preseason AP top 25 poll, which was released on Monday. That’s enough to make the “others receiving votes” category in the media poll but not the proper rankings.

The Wolfpack received the fifth-most points among ACC teams. Clemson (No. 2), Miami (No. 8), Florida State (No. 19) and Virginia Tech (No. 20) will have to fly the conference banner into the first week of the college football season.

(Note: It’s 25 points for a first-place vote, 24 for second, continuing all the way down to one point for a No. 25 vote).

That’s probably for the best. The past four times N.C. State has been ranked in the preseason AP poll, it did not finish the season there.

Where you start isn’t what counts, it’s where you finish. The Wolfpack finished 2017 with a 9-4 record and No. 23 in the final AP poll. It was only the second time in 15 years that N.C. State finished the season in the top 25 (and first since 2010).

Since N.C. State lost seven draft picks from last year’s team, it’s understandable why most voters did not include them in the preseason top 25. In general, voters look at what you have coming back and how you finished the previous season. (Note: I voted in the AP poll for nine years).

N.C. State was able to use a strong first-half of the season to move into the rankings last year. After a season-opening loss to South Carolina, the Wolfpack won six straight games and peaked at No. 14 before an Oct. 28 loss at Notre Dame.

Given West Virginia is ranked No. 17 in the preseason poll, N.C. State will have an early chance before ACC play to impress the voters.

How the first half of the schedule (N.C. State’s open date actually comes after the first six games this season), sets up for the Wolfpack to make another run up the national polls:

James Madison

Date: Sept. 1

Time: noon. TV: ESPNU

Series: first meeting

The Dukes are not your typical Football Championship Subdivision opponent looking for a quick payday from a Power 5 team. They went 14-1 last season and reached the FCS title game (a 17-13 loss to North Dakota State).

In 2016, they went 14-1 and won the national title. It’s notable, the Dukes’ lone loss that season was at North Carolina (56-28). That UNC team featured an NFL quarterback and a quick-strike offense. Before this season is over, there just might be a few similarities between that UNC team (which finished 8-5) and this N.C. State team.

Since a 29-14 home loss to East Tennessee State in 1987, N.C. State has won 30 straight against Division I-AA (or FCS) opponents.

Doeren’s 5-0 against FCS foes at N.C. State and the average margin of victory has been nearly 30 points. The one close call was against another Colonial Athletic team, Richmond (led by current Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson). Doeren’s first team, which finished 3-8, got a 48-yard field goal from Nik Sade with 33 seconds left to edge the Spiders, 23-21.

Georgia State

Date: Sept. 8

Time: 12:30 p.m. TV: ACC Network (WRAL)

Series: first meeting

If you’re ranking the games in order of expected wins, this game would top the list. The Panthers went a perfectly acceptable 5-3 in the Sun Belt last season, and 7-5 overall with a Cure Bowl win (over Western Kentucky), but they’re a relative newcomer to college football.

They’re winless in seven tries against Power 5 conference teams (including a 56-0 loss at Penn State last year) since moving up to the Bowl Subdivision level in 2013.

Doeren, meanwhile, has excelled in games against teams outside the Power 5. Including his two seasons at Northern Illinois, he has a 38-3 record against teams outside the Power 5. He has a 16-2 mark at N.C. State with both losses coming to East Carolina (in 2013 and ’16).

West Virginia

Date: Sept. 15

Time: 3:30 p.m. TV: ABC/ESPN

Series: Tied, 5-5

Last meeting: N.C. State, 23-7 (Orlando, Fla.); Dec. 28, 2010

This might turn out to be the toughest game on the home schedule. The Mountaineers, 7-6 a year ago, feature one of the best pass/catch combos in college football in quarterback Will Grier (34 TD passes last year) and receiver David Sills (18 TD catches).

This also might turn out to be the personification of the “pointing Spiderman” meme. N.C. State, with its heavy personnel losses on defense and returning firepower on offense, could pass for an honorary Big 12 team this season. The Mountaineers had five games last year where it either scored 50 points or allowed 50 points.

The setting should help the Wolfpack, which hasn’t played a ranked nonconference opponent at home since 2008 (a 30-24 win over No. 15 ECU).

at Marshall

Date: Sept. 22

Time: 7 p.m. TV: CBS Sports Network

Series: N.C. State leads 4-0

Last meeting: N.C. State, 37-20 (Raleigh); Sept. 9, 2017

Marshall quarterback Chase Litton torched N.C. State’s secondary for 350 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last year’s meeting in Raleigh. Luckily for the Wolfpack, Litton’s safely in training camp with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Unfortunately for the Wolfpack defense, receiver Tyre Brady is still on the roster. The transfer from Miami set a Carter-Finley Stadium record last year with 248 receiving yards (on 11 catches). N.C. State withstood the early scoring assault by Litton and Brady and came back for a 37-20 win.

The placement on the schedule is in the Herd’s favor, and coach Doc Holliday has a sneaky-talented roster, but this is another one of those opponents from outside the Power 5 that Doeren has traditionally found a way to beat — even on the road (49-17 at South Florida in 2014, 38-14 at Old Dominion in 2015 and 63-13 at South Alabama in ’15).

Virginia

Date: Sept. 29

Time: TBA. TV: TBA.

Series: N.C. State leads 34-22-1

Last meeting: Virginia, 33-6 (Raleigh); Nov. 3, 2012

“Hey, Joe … Why was it so bad for N.C. State to be put in the opposite division of Duke and Virginia?”

Well, N.C. State has a winning record in ACC play (since 1953) against three original conference members: Wake Forest (41-23-1), UVA (30-17) and Duke (29-21-4).

Virginia also has the worst ACC record (17-47) this decade.

This will only be the fifth meeting between the Wolfpack and Cavaliers since the ACC first expanded in 2004 and first matchup since 2012.

Of course, the Wahoos won the last meeting, 33-6 in Raleigh in 2012. That was Tom O’Brien’s last N.C. State team. It was also “peak N.C. State.” That same Wolfpack team beat an absolute FSU juggernaut on the same field that season.

For the most part, Doeren has avoided the wild game-to-game swings of the O’Brien Era. N.C. State will also probably avoid a repeat of that UVA shocker.

Boston College

Date: Oct. 6

Time: TBA. TV: TBA.

Series record: Boston College leads, 9-6

Last meeting: 17-14 win, at Boston College, Nov. 11, 2017.

The Eagles are coming to Carter-Finley Stadium. What could possibly go wrong? Well, there was this disaster in 2014 and another one in 2016. And there’s Boston College’s general mastery of all things N.C. State.

A crazy stat to consider: since the Eagles joined the ACC in 2005, N.C. State is 5-8 against them. Over the same span, N.C. State is 5-8 against Florida State.

Florida State won the ACC in 2012, ’13 and ’14 and the national title in ’13. Boston College hasn’t had a winning ACC record this decade. The Eagles are 4-4 record against N.C. State this decade and 18-38 against everyone else in the ACC.

When you ask the question: “Can N.C. State have nice things?” Boston College usually answers with a demoralizing: “No.”

And those are usually struggling BC teams who find a way to get right against the Wolfpack. The 2016 team had lost 12 straight ACC games before a 21-14 win at Carter-Finley Stadium.

This could turn out to be Boston College’s best team since Matt Ryan’s senior year in 2007. Maybe that will have a bizarro effect on this series. There isn’t much of a logical explanation for it otherwise.

This story was originally published August 21, 2018 at 9:37 AM.