How NC State’s ACC schedule breaks down by NET quadrants
N.C. State coach Kevin Keatts didn’t want his team to dwell on Saturday’s disappointing loss to Clemson.
“If you put your head down, one loss will lead to two or three,” Keatts said after the 81-70 road loss to the Tigers.
N.C. State (10-4, 1-2 ACC) gets its first chance to pick up the pieces on Wednesday with a home game against Notre Dame (10-4, 1-2).
Senior guard C.J. Bryce, who missed the Clemson loss with a concussion, will be a “game-time decision,” Keatts said during the weekly ACC teleconference on Monday.
The start of ACC play hasn’t exactly gone according to plan for the Wolfpack, who began the season with hopes of a top-4 finish in the league. It lost the opener to Georgia Tech at home on Nov. 5 and then won at Wake Forest on Dec. 7. The win over Wake was the only time Keatts has had his full lineup for an ACC game.
But not all ACC games are judged the same by the NCAA tournament selection committee. N.C. State went 9-9 in league play last season but was left out of the tournament because it went 0-7 in what the NCAA qualifies as “Quadrant 1” games.
Home games against teams ranked No. 1 through 30 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, No. 1 through 50 at a neutral site or No. 1 through 75 on the road are considered Q1 games.
N.C. State, No. 46 in the latest NET rankings, currently has six Q1 games in ACC play this season (the number changes with the NET rankings as the season progresses). The Notre Dame matchup is the first of three “Quadrant 3” games N.C. State has over the next four games.
How the ACC schedule breaks down:
Quadrant 1
Home: 1-30, Neutral: 1-50, Road: 1-75
So far: none
Home: No. 18 Louisville (Feb. 1), No. 4 Duke (Feb. 19), No. 19 Florida State (Feb. 22)
Road: at No. 54 Virginia Tech (Saturday), at No. 51 Virginia (Jan. 20), at No. 4 Duke (March 2)
N.C. State picked up one Q1 win in nonconference play (No. 26 Wisconsin). It had one Q1 win outside the league last season (No. 18 Auburn), so you figure it will need to make a little more hay between now and Selection Sunday.
Two wins out of the six chances would probably be enough, especially if one is over Duke (No. 4 in the NET). A lone win over a depleted Duke lineup was basically what put Syracuse in the tournament field last year.
It’s going to be difficult to pick off any of the road games, especially if Bryce can’t play on Saturday at surprising Virginia Tech.
Quadrant 2
Home: 31-75, Neutral: 51-100, Road: 76-135
So far: 1-1 (W at No. 89 Wake Forest, L at No. 103 Clemson)
Home: none
Road: at No. 95 Georgia Tech (Jan. 25), No. 94 at Miami (Feb. 5), at No. 88 Syracuse (Feb. 11) at No. 100 UNC (Feb. 25)
The Clemson loss, while ugly and avoidable, actually doesn’t hurt N.C. State, by itself. Even if the Tigers fall into Q3, the selection committee usually only docks teams for egregious Q4 losses. As N.C. State learned last year, there’s no reward for good losses, either.
It’s notable that all four of these Q2 games are on the road. Also notable that N.C. State had a strong Q2 record last year (5-0) and the committee did not care.
Quadrant 3
Home: 76-160, Neutral: 101-200, Road: 136-240
So far: 0-1 (L No. 95 Georgia Tech)
Home: No. 79 Notre Dame (Wednesday), No. 94 Miami (Jan. 15), No. 103 Clemson (Jan. 18), No. 100 UNC (Jan. 27), No. 83 Pittsburgh (Feb. 29), No. 89 Wake Forest (March 6)
Road: No. 145 Boston College (Feb. 16)
To sum up UNC’s struggles to this point of the season: A home game against the Tar Heels is a Q3 game.
The value of these games can be tricky. A 7-0 sweep doesn’t guarantee you anything but you don’t want to lose too many, either. Dropping one or two is not going to break you.
Notre Dame at NC State
When: Wednesday, 7 p.m.
Where: PNC Arena, Raleigh
Watch: ESPN2
Listen: 101.5-WRAL
Notre Dame (10-4, 1-2 ACC)
G Prentiss Hubb 11.6 ppg, 5.1 apg
G T.J. Gibbs 12.9 ppg, 3.6 apg
G Rex Pflueger 4.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg
F John Mooney 15.9 ppg, 13.5 rpg
F Juwan Durham 8.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg
NC State (10-4, 1-2 ACC)
G Markell Johnson 12.9 ppg, 6.8 apg
G Braxton Beverly 8.1 ppg, 2.0 rpg
G Devon Daniels 11.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg
F Jericole Hellems 10.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg
F Manny Bates 6.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg
This story was originally published January 7, 2020 at 11:53 AM.
