Is NC State still in the NCAA tournament picture? Yes. Here’s why.
A win at North Carolina on Tuesday wasn’t going to clinch an NCAA tournament bid for N.C. State.
The 85-79 loss to the Tar Heels is not going to keep the Wolfpack out, either.
It’s important to remember how the NCAA tournament selection process works. N.C. State (17-11, 8-9 ACC) is not going to be compared to the teams vying for one of the top 16 seeds in the 68-team field.
The Wolfpack is going to be compared to the other dozen (or so) teams trying to secure one of the final four or eight spots in the at-large field.
Despite two losses to UNC (the last-place ACC team) and a recent loss at Boston College (the lowest-rated ACC team in the NET), N.C. State is still in good position to make the NCAA tournament.
Here’s why:
Quality wins
If you take the last nine teams (N.C. State, Providence, Cincinnati, USC, Mississippi State, Xavier, Utah State, Oklahoma, Rhode Island) on The Washington Post’s latest projected NCAA at-large board and the first four teams out (Stanford, Wichita State, Arkansas, Alabama) N.C. State is the only bubble team with a winning record (5-4) in Quadrant 1 games.
“Quadrant 1” is what the NCAA considers to be the best wins. They are home wins over teams ranked in the top 30 of the NET, neutral-site wins over top-50 teams and road wins over top-75 teams.
Providence (7-8) is the only bubble team with more Q1 wins than N.C. State and eight of the 13 teams have two or fewer. So, again, you have to remember N.C. State’s not being compared to Baylor (10-1 in Q1 games) or Kansas (11-3), it’s being compared to other teams in the same boat.
Of the teams on the bubble, N.C. State also has the “best” win with the 88-66 decision over Duke (No. 6 in the NET). Providence is the only other bubble team with a top-10 win (over No. 8 Creighton).
N.C. State has more Q1 wins than it did on Selection Sunday last year (3-9), when it ended up in the NIT because the chair of the selection committee said it didn’t have enough quality wins against the top teams in the ACC.
The Wolfpack has more Q1 wins and better Q1 wins this year. Duke and Wisconsin (No. 30) will be in the NCAA field. Virginia (No. 52) is likely going to be given the chance to repeat as national champions.
That means of N.C. State’s five Q1 wins, three are against teams likely to be in the field. Compare that to last year when N.C. State had three Q1 wins but only Auburn made the tournament.
No red flags
N.C. State went into Selection Sunday last year with the worst rated nonconference strength of schedule, No. 353 out of 353 teams, in the country.
That didn’t help the Wolfpack’s cause. Any outlier is bad. This time around, N.C. State doesn’t have any outliers. Its SOS after Tuesday’s loss is No. 72.
Providence has two Q4 losses (the worst by NET rankings) while Cincinnati has a 6-4 Q3 record. Alabama (2-7) and Rhode Island (1-5) have poor Q1 records. Wichita State has two Q1 wins but neither team (Oklahoma State, Connecticut) is likely to make the field.
So everyone’s resume has its own faults. That’s why the teams are on the bubble.
The path to the Dance
What losing to UNC on Tuesday did was eliminate N.C. State’s margin of error. The Wolfpack has three regular-season games left — vs. Pittsburgh (Saturday), at Duke (Monday) and vs. Wake Forest (next Friday) — and is guaranteed one game in the ACC tournament.
N.C. State almost certainly can’t afford another home loss. Conversely, a road win at Duke would almost be a golden ticket.
As the Wolfpack learned last year, a win in the opening round of the ACC tournament doesn’t guarantee a spot in the NCAA tournament but it can eliminate you (ask Clemson).
Almost certainly, N.C. State’s path to a second NCAA bid in three years under coach Kevin Keatts includes one win in Greensboro. Of the final eight teams in the 2019 field, seven won their first conference tournament game.
One potential fly in the ointment: bid thieves.
The NCAA showed an interest in being more inclusive to teams outside the major conferences last year. Belmont lost in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament championship game to Murray State but both Belmont and Murray made the NCAA field.
Belmont had fewer Q1 wins (2-2) than N.C. State but made the “First Four” in Dayton, Ohio, while N.C. State was in the NIT.
East Tennessee State could be this year’s Belmont. The Bucs are a game ahead of UNCG and Furman in a tight Southern Conference race. ETSU has a 2-1 Q1 record with a win over LSU and road win over UNCG.
If the Spartans (or Furman) win the SoCon tournament, the Bucs are in line to get an at-large spot. UNCG, which lost at the buzzer to N.C. State in December, was swept by ETSU and would likely end up in the NIT if it doesn’t win the SoCon tournament.
Stephen F. Austin, who won at Duke in November, might also have a shot at making the field if it loses in the Southland Conference final.
Pitt at NC State
When: Noon, Saturday
Where: PNC Arena, Raleigh
Watch: ACC Network
This story was originally published February 26, 2020 at 6:29 PM.
