What’s the road to 8 wins for NC State? Evaluating the rest of the football schedule
Two of N.C. State’s three losses probably don’t sting as much.
The games at Virginia Tech and North Carolina were decided long before the fourth quarter, and they had time to settle in a bit before the clock struck 0:00. The latest defeat, though, at home versus a ranked Miami team, was different.
The Wolfpack were up 10 in the fourth quarter — one haymaker away from a knockout blow. But the Hurricanes threw jab after jab and pulled off the fourth-quarter comeback. Now N.C. State sits at 4-3 overall with four games remaining in the regular season.
“We’ve got four games left and an opportunity to really have a great close to our season,” Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren said on Monday.
Since the NCAA waived eligibility requirements for bowl games in 2020, the Wolfpack possibly have five games in front of them, with a shot at a third nine-win season under Doeren. Sitting at four wins, getting to nine means the Wolfpack will have to put together a perfect finish. Under Doeren, N.C. State has put together two five-game winning streaks (2017, 2018), so there is precedent. But winning five in a row, even with a favorable schedule, is easier said than done.
The good news for N.C. State is that three of the next four games are at home. Even better news is the next four opponents have a combined record of 12-17. The Wolfpack will probably be favored the rest of the way, with the exception potentially being the Liberty game Nov. 21. Saturday’s loss to Miami at Carter-Finley Stadium was the first home loss of the season for N.C. State. The Wolfpack has averaged 39 points per game inside the Carter this year.
Taking care of business at home, and a trip to Syracuse where N.C. State has only lost once ever, paints a picture of an easy path to eight wins. But when has anything ever been easy for the Wolfpack?
FSU is 2-1 in its last three trips to Raleigh and has only lost in consecutive trips to Carter-Finley Stadium once (2010 and 2012).
NC State’s dream scenario to 8 wins
N.C. State figures it all out in November and ends the regular season on a high note. Against Miami, the team proved it can play toe-to-toe with a top 10 opponent. The Wolfpack defense has proven (see: Virginia, Pittsburgh, Duke) that it can stop the run. If you take out D’Eriq King’s 105 yards last weekend, N.C. State stuffed Miami’s ground game. Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Florida State are at the bottom half of the ACC when it comes to passing offense, and the Wolfpack secondary could catch a break there.
Liberty has already beaten two ACC teams, but N.C. State could knock off a ranked team for the second time this season.
Quarterback Bailey Hockman builds on his strong performance from the Miami game and N.C. State rolls into the bowl selection weekend on a four-game streak. The specials teams unit (two blocked punts, a kickoff return for a score) has played well and Doeren knows that part of the game (complementary football) needs to continue to excel the rest of the way.
“I’m really proud of the performance and (special teams coach) Todd Goebbel deserves a lot of credit,” Doeren said. “He does a great job schematically and just getting the guys excited about being on those special teams.”
The nightmare scenario for NC State
Florida State (2-5) suddenly remembers it’s Florida State this weekend and picks the wrong week (for State fans) to get it all together.
“We play Florida State every year, we know what type of talent they have,” Doeren said. “We have great respect for their program. We know we’re going to play a fast athletic team that has a really good defensive line. We will not overlook these guys one bit, we have to play as well as we can play to win.”
Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis is a dual-threat athlete, not quite like King, but he steals from his playbook and slices and dices the Wolfpack in Raleigh.
“Boy is he quick and can he run,” Doeren said about the potential of facing Travis this weekend. “He’s electric running the football, he’s like Lamar Jackson with how fast he can accelerate. He’s scary with his feet. Does a lot for them on his own.”
Liberty (7-0 and No. 22 in the AP poll) rides into Raleigh with confidence having already won at two ACC sites, and Syracuse plays inspired in the Orange’s last home game. Georgia Tech has a two-game winning streak in Raleigh and scored a combined 101 points its last two trips to Carter-Finley Stadium. The struggling Yellow Jackets pulled one out its hat last season in Atlanta to edge an N.C. State team that still had hopes of becoming bowl eligible.
Like 2019, injuries (no Tanner Ingle at safety, no Tyrone Riley at tackle) start to catch up with N.C. State and things start to snowball. The losses to UNC and Miami turn into a six-game slide, matching the six-game losing streak to end the 2019 season. Since the 2013 season, the Wolfpack has had two separate streaks of six games or more.
What finish would Wolfpack fans accept?
Neither of the previous two scenarios are impossible, but not even the most optimistic State fan sees a 4-0 finish. Even the most cynical Wolfpack supporter has to assume they will win at least one of the remaining four.
A “that-sounds-about-right” finish, would have N.C. State taking two of the final four — Florida State and Georgia Tech — sandwiched in between two “how did we lose those?” head-scratchers versus Liberty and at Syracuse.
That would leave the Wolfpack at 6-5 to end the year, with the bowl game to follow. Or, if Hockman has turned the corner — Doeren thinks he has — and the defense can get back to forcing turnovers like they did to end October (seven combined in wins over Virginia and Duke), N.C. State could easily pull off three of the next four, plus a bowl win, finishing with eight wins in 2020.
NC State’s remaining football schedule
vs. Florida State
- Last match up (2019): 27-13, FSU
- All-time series: 13-27-0
vs. Liberty
- Last match up (2011): 43-21, NC State
- All-time series: 1-0-0
@ Syracuse
- Last match up (2019): 16-10, NC State
- All-time series: 11-2-0
vs. Georgia Tech
- Last match up (2019): 28-26, Georgia Tech
- All-time series: 10-20-0
This story was originally published November 9, 2020 at 3:27 PM.
