Can NC State football have a winning season? Here’s the path for the Wolfpack

N.C. State, despite struggling in 2024, has been consistent under head coach Dave Doeren. The Wolfpack averaged 7.25 wins in the past 12 seasons, finishing with nine winning campaigns, 10 bowl game appearances and three finishes in the College Football Playoff Top 25.

The team has an opportunity in 2025 to build on that consistency, but the prognosticators do not share the same confidence that the team has shared throughout fall camp.

Pro Football Focus and the ESPN Power Index both estimate the Wolfpack will finish eleventh in the ACC, which is one spot behind where N.C. State was picked in the preseason ACC poll.

PFF gives N.C. State a 75% chance of achieving bowl eligibility, estimating the team wins seven games. It also gives the Wolfpack an 8% chance of winning the ACC and an 11% chance of making the College Football Playoff field. Though it’s ranked No. 11 in the PFF model, N.C. State ranks ahead of North Carolina and behind Duke.

ESPN, meanwhile, gives N.C. State a 64% chance of making a bowl game and only estimates the team wins 6.2 games. It is expected to finish behind Boston College (No. 8), UNC (No. 9) and Duke (No. 10).

Additionally, ESPN’s power index lists the team’s chances of winning the ACC at 1.3% and making the playoff at 2.2%.

The odds are stacked against the Wolfpack as it tries to bounce back, but there are plenty of opportunities to exceed expectations.

N.C. State also features top playmakers. CJ Bailey, Hollywood Smothers and Justin Joly on offense, are three dynamic players who could light up the scoreboard if all goes well. Bailey put up Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson-type numbers as a freshman, during a year in which he was expected to redshirt. Smothers found his groove in the second half of the season and is expected to start alongside Bailey. Meanwhile, Joly has the chance to be one of the ACC’s best tight ends; a strong physique and high IQ make him a potential NFL draft pick.

There are more unknowns on the defense after the team lost a chunk of its starters and more than half of its letterwinners. The program has a proud history of defensive success, though, and wants to prove last season was an exception not a new norm.

Here is N.C.State’s 2025 schedule, and how the Pack could perform in each game.

Aug. 28, East Carolina

Predicted record: 1-0

What to know: The Wolfpack opens the 2025 season at home against an in-state opponent, with a lot to prove after limping to the finish line last year. N.C. State gave up a fourth-quarter lead to the Pirates in December’s Military Bowl, ending the season with a 26-21 loss. It allowed 473 yards of total offense and forced one punt. Prior to the loss, the Wolfpack won three consecutive games against ECU, including a 34-6 blowout victory in 2019, one of the worst seasons during Doeren’s tenure.

Success meter: Probable win. U.S. sports books list the Wolfpack as an 11.5- to 12.5-point favorite. N.C. State leads the all-time series, which dates back to 1970, 19-13. The Pack holds a 3-1 record in the last four meetings and the programs are tied 5-5 in the past 10. It is 16-7 against ECU at home, as well, giving N.C. State an advantage.

Beyond the numbers and history, the Wolfpack has something to prove. Not only did it fail to meet expectations last season, the external confidence level for the season isn’t particularly high. A win is expected. A big win could restore some excitement.

Sept. 6, Virginia

Predicted record: 2-0

What to know: The Cavaliers are among the ACC teams surrounded with question marks. ESPN and PFF both list UVA toward the bottom of their respective Power Indexes, while the program was selected to finish No. 14 in the ACC. Despite being an ACC opponent, the game will not be counted as a conference game.

Success meter: Probable win. There are no betting lines available on this game but history has been kind to the Wolfpack in the more recent games against the Cavaliers. Additionally, N.C. State holds a 77.3 PFF passing grade, which quantifies multiple advanced analytics into a single number, far higher than Virginia’s 59.7.

The Pack also holds a 37-22-1 record in the longtime series, with five wins in the last six games. N.C. State has won three in a row and is 17-9 when playing the Hoos at home.

Sept. 11, at Wake Forest

Predicted record: 3-0

What to know: Things look favorable for the Pack, notably comparing retention, but Wake Forest matchups can be squirrelly. Last season, N.C. State had a chance to win in the fourth quarter — despite Grayson McCall’s head injury — but late defensive breakdowns allowed the Demon Deacons to come back for a 34-30 win at Carter-Finley. A year prior, N.C. State won the meeting in Winston-Salem, 26-6, as part of Brennan Armstrong’s return at starting quarterback.

With this being head coach Jake Dickert’s first season at Wake Forest and 58 new players, it’s unclear how the Deacs will mesh.

Success meter: Probable win. N.C. State should, emphasis on should, come out of this game with another victory on its record. The Wolfpack owns a 69-43-6 record in the series dating back more than a century. It is 5-5 in the last 10 meetings and has not lost back-to-back games since 2018-19. N.C. State is 31-21-2 on the road.

Wake was picked to finish 16th in the ACC this season. Metrics, however, are split on the Demon Deacons’ projected success this season. ESPN’s estimates give Wake Forest 4.7 wins on the season and a sub-30% chance of making a bowl game. PFF gives the Deacs a 71% chance of making a bowl and estimates 6.7 wins but ranks it 23 spots lower on its overall power index.

Sept. 20, at Duke

Predicted record: 3-1

What to know: This series has favored each program at different times, but Duke has found more recent success. The Blue Devils retained most of its roster, adding 37 players, but it has a new starting QB after Maalik Murphy left for Oregon State. It brought in Tulane transfer Darian Mensah who recorded 2,723 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and threw six interceptions in 2024.

Some question whether Mensah can succeed against Power Four opponents. Last season, the Green Wave played at Kansas State and Oklahoma. It lost both games. Mensah threw for 166 yards and one touchdown against the Sooners and 342 yards and two touchdowns against the Wildcats. He threw one interception in each contest. Mensah likely could’ve had more success against the two opponents but he was sacked a combined eight times. It’s hard to blame a guy when his offensive line didn’t give him enough help.

Success meter: Tossup but possible loss. ESPN has Duke and N.C. State finishing with roughly six wins apiece, while PFF guesses the Blue Devils will finish closer to eight wins. Duke leads the all-time series 43-37-5 and has won four of the last five meetings. Rivalry games are always difficult to predict, but Duke may have the edge due to some of its returners and playing at home.

Sept. 27, Virginia Tech

Predicted record: 4-1

What to know: The Hokies were picked to finish 11th in the ACC preseason poll — including one first-place vote — while ESPN (7.8) and PFF (7.0) have them winning roughly seven games. Unlike some teams in the league, Virginia Tech is not replacing its QB but it lost some guys to the pros.

Quarterback Kyron Drones received four votes for ACC Preseason Player of the Year. In three seasons with the Hokies, he’s thrown 3,865 yards for 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. First-team All-ACC defensive linemen Antwaun Powell-Ryland and Aeneas Peebles and second-team running back Bhayshul Tuten went to the NFL.

Success meter: Tossup but possible win. The Wolfpack trails the series 28-20-4 with two consecutive wins, on the road and at home. N.C. State squeaked by in 2022 with a 22-21 victory and again a season later with a 35-28 win. The team is 3-5 against the Hokies since 2000. Since the Pack is playing at home, where it has a 9-5-1 record, N.C. State gets the edge in this one.

Oct. 4, Campbell

Predicted record: 5-1

What to know: Campbell was picked to finish No. 10 in the Coastal Athletic Association preseason poll after going 3-9 last year, including 1-7 in conference play. The Camels rank 228th in the 247Sports overall recruiting rankings. There are players who should make plays in Raleigh, but the Camels are undoubtedly underdogs.

Success meter: Probable win. N.C. State has never played Campbell, but the Pack has no business losing to the Camels. This is no shade at the FCS program. N.C. State, however, has the talent and resources that should lend itself to a huge win. The Wolfpack has not lost to an FCS opponent this century and it shouldn’t start now.

Oct. 11, at Notre Dame

Predicted record: 5-2

What to know: Notre Dame enters the 2025 season after appearing in last season’s national championship game and reloading with a class that’s ranked No. 12 in the overall recruiting rankings. Head coach Marcus Freeman added one five-star recruit and 16 four-stars, including Alabama safety DeVonta Smith and Virginia receiver Malachi Fields.

According to U.S. sports books, the Fighting Irish are No. 7 in ESPN’s odds to win the national title.

Success meter: Probable loss. This will be the fifth meeting between the two programs. The series is tied 2-2, with the Irish winning two straight. N.C. State’s most recent game against the pseudo-ACC opponent was a 45-24 loss at home. Its only trip to South Bend included a 35-14 loss for the Pack.

ESPN gives Notre Dame a 45% chance of making the CFP, while PFF projects a 20% chance. N.C. State is listed as a serviceable but not elite squad. It’s not impossible to beat the Irish, but doing so against Notre Dame will be a tough assignment.

Oct. 25, at Pitt

Predicted record: 6-2

What to know: The ACC is the league of “We’re all just guessing here,” and Pittsburgh embodies that perfectly. Pitt is not a team expected to do much this season. Analysts say it’ll win a few games and maybe make a low-tier bowl game, but that’s about it. The accuracy of those predictions remains to be seen, but Pitt has been inconsistent in previous years, going 11-3 in 2021, 3-9 in 2023 and 7-6 in 2024.

The Panthers’ roster features running back Desmond Reid, who started his career at Western Carolina. Reid finished just shy of the 1,000-yard rushing mark last year, recording 966 yards and five touchdowns. He served as a receiver, as well, adding 579 yards and punching in a quartet of touchdowns.

Reid earned six second team All-America honors last season and was an All-ACC First Team selection.

Success meter: Tossup but possible win. The Wolfpack will travel to Pittsburgh fully rested after its first bye week. The two teams are tied 5-5 in the series, while N.C. State has won three in a row. Much of the team’s success will likely rely on stopping the run, which it’s struggled with. Last season, it gave up too many explosives — see ECU’s game-winning score — but it also shut down NFL-caliber players like UNC running back Omarion Hampton. If N.C. State can slow Reid, it has a good chance at returning to Raleigh with a win.

Nov. 1, Georgia Tech

Predicted record: 6-3

What to know: Georgia Tech returns a plethora of major playmakers, including quarterback Haynes King, wide receiver Malik Rutherford, running back Jamal Haynes and offensive lineman Keylan Rutledge. All four players earned All-ACC recognition last season, with Rutledge and Haynes earning preseason honors in July. King was second in the preseason Player of the Year voting, behind Clemson’s Cade Klubnik.

PFF gives the Yellow Jackets a 63% chance of making a bowl game and ESPN increases that probability to 85%. Like N.C. State, GaTech’s schedule features several 50/50 games. The two teams also have offenses that are viewed favorably with the defense featuring uncertainty.

Success meter: Tossup but possible loss. Georgia Tech has owned the series, especially in the modern era. The Yellow Jackets lead the Wolfpack 21-11 all time, including wins in four of the last five games and nine in the last 13. Last year, N.C. State had an opportunity to upset GaTech after scoring 22 points in the fourth quarter. A failed two-point conversion and defensive breakdowns on the Jackets’ final drive gave them a 30-29 win.

With two great offenses returning to the field, the better defense will likely win. After N.C. State’s attrition, the Pack could be an underdog at home.

Nov. 15, at Miami

Predicted record: 6-4

What to know: Miami was picked to finish No. 2 in the ACC, while ESPN and PFF favor the Hurricanes in the conference title race. The team was given a 97% chance to make a bowl and roughly a 50/50 shot at making the CFP field.

The Hurricanes lost quarterback Cam Ward — the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft — they picked up Carson Beck from Georgia. He was inconsistent with the Bulldogs but enters the season with a perfect record against ACC teams. Beck finished No. 4 in the preseason Player of the Year voting.

Miami also returns linebacker Francisco Mauigoa and defensive end Rueben Bain. Both earned spots on last season’s All-ACC teams and were picked on this year’s preseason team.

Success meter: Probable loss. While the Wolfpack will enter Hard Rock Stadium after its second bye week — and Mario Cristobal has squandered wins before — Miami doesn’t look like it’ll be easily beaten. History also favors the Canes, which lead the series 11-6 and have won seven of the last 10 games, with N.C. State defeating Miami in 2023 behind MJ Morris. The Pack has not won in Coral Gables since 2007.

Nov. 21, Florida State

Predicted record: 6-5

What to know: Following Florida State’s fall from grace, the Seminoles seek a major restart. Mike Novell brought in the second-best class this season, behind Miami, which features top transfers and high school recruits. ESPN and PFF predict the Seminoles’ schedule should be favorable to be bowl eligible again.

Former Boston College quarterback Tommy Castellanos is primed to be QB1, despite his sour ending with the Eagles. Castellanos threw for 3,614 yards and 33 touchdowns in two seasons with BC, including 18 last season to five interceptions. He was benched following the Syracuse game when he went 2 of 7 for 14 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Success meter: Tossup but possible loss. The numbers say Florida State is the probable winner, as does the Seminoles’ 27-16 record over N.C. State. The Wolfpack, however, has won three consecutive games over Florida State, including a one-point victory in 2022. It holds a 10-11 record at home. Will this be a blowout? Unlikely. Fans should expect a one- or two-possession game.

Nov. 29, North Carolina

Predicted record: 7-5

What to know: Bill Belichick might have six Super Bowl rings but he’s never coached a State-Carolina rivalry game. UNC features 71 new players and nearly an entirely new coaching staff following Mack Brown’s termination.

There’s plenty of hype around Belichick — ESPN lists the Tar Heels ahead of N.C. State and Duke in its power index — but the lack of continuity could pose problems. Omarion Hampton, Alijah Huzzie, Jahvaree Ritzie and Willie Lampkin went pro. Conner Harrell, Beau Atkinson, Amare Campbell, DeAndre Boykins and Malik McGowan were among its transfers.

South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez is the likely starting QB. He threw 2,559 yards for 18 touchdowns and five interceptions. He was relatively mobile, as well, rushing for 465 yards and seven scores. The Tar Heels return Max Johnson, who was the original starting QB last season before breaking his leg in the season opener, but his usage is unknown.

Success meter: Tossup but possible win. UNC holds a 68-40 record over N.C. State all time, but the Wolfpack won four straight and seven of the last 10. There’s always an added level of excitement to play a rival. Doeren previously mentioned the importance of beating Carolina, something brought up the day he was hired. Plus, who wouldn’t want to say they beat Belichick? This game is bound to be thrilling, with plenty of back and forth, but N.C. State probably has the pieces to pull off another victory.

NC State floor: 4-8

This would be a worst-case-scenario. Truthfully, anything under seven wins sound alarm bells. CJ Bailey should take a step forward after a strong freshman campaign and he’s got pieces around him. But what if the defense, after losing so many players, doesn’t turn things around? What if there are injuries to major contributors? The ACC is split into a few top teams, a few bottom teams and a bunch that can beat up on each other. N.C. State and several of its opponents fit into the middle category.

NC State ceiling: 9-3

Realistically, N.C. State probably isn’t going to beat Miami or Notre Dame on the road and there are enough tossup games where a third loss is reasonable. Most of its losses in 2024 came down to one possession. With additional experience from top players, those could easily be flipped this year. Doeren hasn’t had back-to-back losing seasons as a head coach, either. Knowing the Wolfpack’s history, however, it would be on brand for the team to finish just under the 10-win threshold.

This story was originally published August 21, 2025 at 5:30 AM.

Jadyn Watson-Fisher

The News & Observer