NC State women win third in four games. Why they still have a long way to go
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- NC State fell out of the top 25 amid inconsistent defense and scoring.
- Team wins correlate with positive assist-to-turnover ratios and steal margin.
- Suspension of Awou strains frontcourt; Pierre and Trygger absorb rebound load
N.C. State women’s basketball started the season in the top 25. It steadily dropped in the rankings until falling out this past week. For a program that’s had sustained success, it’s somewhat surprising to see the Wolfpack on the outside looking in.
But thiss was somewhat predictable for head coach Wes Moore, who called his team “way overrated” last month. At ACC Tipoff, Moore said the same people who included the Wolfpack in the preseason top 25 were the same ones who didn’t rank the 2023-24 squad before it upset Connecticut in its second game of the season and made the Final Four. Moore, from the beginning, has been frank about the team.
“We’re obviously going through a tough stretch right here,” Moore said after the team’s loss against Rhode Island on Nov. 23. “Just got to be a little more bought into details; paying attention to the scout, how we’re defending certain things, how we’re running certain things offensively. We spend a lot of time on those things, but obviously it’s not getting through. It’s just very frustrating. We’re not playing well right now. That’s my fault. We’ve got to clean it up and figure it out.”
Since then, N.C. State has won three of its last four games. The Wolfpack beat Green Bay (79-67) and Southern Miss (110-56) in the Cancun Challenge last week. Its 110 points were the most scored in the Moore era and the most by any team in the challenge .
On Wednesday, the Wolfpack lost to No. 9 Oklahoma on the road, 103-98, in the ACC-SEC Challenge. Zamareya Jones recorded career highs in scoring (26 points) and rebounding (8). Zoe Brooks added 25 points. Khamil Pierre contributed 19 points and 20 rebounds in the loss.
On Sunday, the Wolfpack (6-4) overcame a nine-point deficit to pick up a 61-53 win over Seton Hall, despite a stomach virus impacting much of the team.
“We’ve got a long way to go, a lot of stuff to clean up, but I am proud of the effort in the second half,” Moore said after the win. “I think we gave up 20 points in the second half and only eight in the fourth quarter.”
N.C. State has gotten off to a tumultuous start. It beat top-10 Maryland in an exhibition and opened the nonconference slate with a three-point win over Tennessee. That is the only victory over a Power Four program during the regular season.
The Wolfpack also lost to Southern California by one point in its second game of the year, before its 24-game home winning streak was snapped by now-No. 8 TCU a week later.
Despite its recent wins (and close loss to the Sooners), N.C. State hasn’t yet looked like the teams of years past. Its defensive intensity remains inconsistent, and this may not be the team that can simply out-shoot its opponents when defense fails.
“We’re going to have to continue to grow,” Moore said. “Offensively, I still don’t feel like we’re clicking the way we need to. We’ve got to make sure we don’t get away from getting the ball inside. We’ve got to get post touches and be able to score in and around the rim. Defensively, we’re still having breakdowns on the scout; certain players taking away certain things, and we’re not doing that.”
Maddie Cox, who was a freshman on the Final Four team two years ago, said the team isn’t panicking but knows it has to get things sorted before ACC play begins. The Wolfpack plays its conference opener next week before briefly resuming non-league action.
N.C. State is averaging 75.5 points per game, including five games under 70 points. TCU held the Wolfpack to a season-low 59 points. The defense is allowing 66.7 points per game, including 79.5 points against power programs.
“We’re definitely not where we need to be right now,” Jones said on Sunday. “Again, we’re a young team. We’re figuring out each other. At the end of the day. We’re going to get better and better as the season goes.”
Interior depth takes a hit
N.C. State is down one center after Moore announced the indefinite suspension of sophomore Lorena Awou.
“We’re just going through a time right now where she’s suspended for the moment,” Moore said. “We’ll kind of see where that goes.”
Moore did not give a possible timetable for her return. He called her suspension a “coaches’ decision” and not university or NCAA mandated.
Awou played against Maine, TCU and Coastal Carolina. She has not played since Nov. 19. The sophomore has scored 10 points and pulled down 10 rebounds.
Last season, Awou appeared in 31 games. She finished the year with 99 points and 78 rebounds, averaging 3.2 points and 2.5 rebounds per appearance. Awou also added 12 steals and 11 blocks.
Tilda Trygger and Mallory Collier serve as N.C. State’s primary centers. Trygger averages 12 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. Cox and Pierre have stepped into the power forward role. Pierre leads the nation with 130 rebounds, while Cox finished with a career-high 12 boards against Seton Hall.
How to spot a win
The two biggest non-scoring statistical indicators of wins this season are assists-to-turnovers and steal margin.
N.C. State is 4-0 when it finishes with more assists than turnovers. It is 2-4 when finishing with more turnovers than assists.
Similarly, the Wolfpack’s record is 4-1 in games when the number of steals is greater than or equal to that of the opponent. It is 2-3 when it has fewer steals.
N.C. State beat Coastal Carolina and Seton Hall despite committing more turnovers than assists. The Wolfpack finished with 14 turnovers and 12 assists on Sunday, and the Pirates won the steal margin, 8-4.
The team’s comeback attempt, however, was fueled by a tougher but cleaner second half. After committing 10 turnovers in the first half, the Wolfpack committed four in the second. And, it finished with six assists while holding Seton Hall to 7 of 30 (23.3%) second-half shooting.
Correlation does not indicate causation, but the do numbers help identify in the moment which games are likely victories and quantify the intangibles Moore seeks from his team.
“Coach Moore preaches effort. You can’t teach effort,” Jones said. “Go out there and play your hardest, whether you’re rebounding, playing good defense and help side. Whatever you do, just give as much as you can when you’re on the court.”
