North Carolina

UNC basketball bubble watch could come down to one game. A look at Heels’ NCAA resume

North Carolina’s Armando Bacot (5) slam dunks during the first half of UNC’s game against Duke Saturday, Feb. 5, 2022 at the Dean Smith Center.
North Carolina’s Armando Bacot (5) slam dunks during the first half of UNC’s game against Duke Saturday, Feb. 5, 2022 at the Dean Smith Center. tlong@newsobserver.com

Here’s the part where a weakened ACC isn’t doing any favors for North Carolina and its NCAA Tournament positioning. The Tar Heels’ overtime win over Syracuse only served not to drop them, it didn’t improve their status.

That’s not the case in the Big 12 where TCU’s win over Kansas may have just solidified its bid. The Horned Frogs were reeling after losing three of four, but they just picked up wins over Texas Tech and Kansas in the last week.

The Big Ten doesn’t have those problems either, where Rutgers’ win at Indiana was a way for the Scarlet Knights to play their way into the tournament. While the Hoosiers’ home loss in a de facto play-in game adds pressure on their regular season finale at rival Purdue.

Creighton got a chance to prove itself worthy in the Big East with its win over Connecticut to complete the season sweep. The Blue Jays have played without starting point guard Ryan Nembhard the past two games after winning six straight, but still look like a tournament team.

Carolina didn’t have that kind of luxury for most of conference play, but it does have a rich opportunity on Saturday when it travels to Cameron Indoor Stadium to face Duke in the regular season finale and the last home game for Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski. Should Carolina come away with a victory given all the pomp and circumstance surrounding Krzyzewski’s last game, that might be enough to clinch an at-large berth regardless of what happens in Brooklyn at the ACC tournament.

The Heels did ensure a top four finish in the ACC standings with their win over the Orange and earned a coveted double bye in the ACC tournament as a result. Short of a win on Saturday, they’ll likely need to win one game in Brooklyn just to feel at ease on Selection Sunday.

Here’s how the Heels compare to other bubble teams:

UNC (22-8)

NET: 40

Best wins: Michigan, at Virginia Tech

Bad losses: Pittsburgh

Current trend: Won last four

Remaining: at Duke

San Diego State (19-7)

NET: 26

Best wins: St. Mary’s, Colorado State, Wyoming

Bad losses: none

Current trend: Won seven of last eight

Remaining: vs. Fresno State, at Nevada

San Francisco (23-8)

NET: 27

Best wins: Davidson, BYU

Bad losses: Portland

Current trend: Won four of last six

Remaining: WCC tournament

Loyola, Chicago (22-7)

NET: 31

Best wins: San Francisco, at Missouri State, at Vanderbilt

Bad losses: vs Drake

Current trend: Won four of last six

Remaining: vs Bradley in Missouri Valley tournament

Michigan (16-12)

NET: 32

Best wins: Purdue, Iowa, San Diego St., Michigan State

Bad losses: Minnesota

Current trend: Won three of last five.

Remaining: vs. Iowa, at Ohio State

Memphis (17-9)

NET: 41

Best wins: Alabama, Virginia Tech

Bad losses: at Georgia, at East Carolina

Current trend: Won eight of last nine

Remaining: at South Florida, vs. Houston

Indiana (18-11)

NET: 43

Best wins: Notre Dame, Purdue, Ohio State

Bad losses: Penn State

Current trend: Lost six of last eight.

Remaining: at Purdue

TCU (19-9)

NET: 46

Best wins: Iowa State, LSU, Texas Tech, Kansas

Bad losses: None

Current trend: Won three of last four

Remaining: at Kansas, at West Virginia

SMU (20-7)

NET: 50

Best wins: Houston, Memphis (twice), Dayton

Bad losses: Loyola Marymount, Missouri

Current trend: Won four of last six

Remaining: vs. Cincinnati, vs. Tulane

VCU (21-7)

NET: 49

Best wins: at Davidson, Syracuse, at Vanderbilt

Bad losses: Wagner

Current trend: Won eight consecutive games

Remaining: at St. Louis

Florida (19-11)

NET: 51

Best wins: Auburn, Ohio State

Bad losses: Texas Southern, Ole Miss

Current trend: Won three of last four

Remaining: vs Kentucky

BYU (21-9)

NET: 52

Best wins: San Diego State, Oregon, San Francisco

Bad losses: Pacific

Current trend: Won four of last five

Remaining: West Coast Conference tournament

Oregon (17-11)

NET: 58

Best wins: SMU, UCLA (twice), USC

Bad losses: California, Arizona State (twice)

Current trend: Lost three of last four.

Remaining: at Washington, at Washington State

Creighton (20-9)

Net: 66

Best wins: UConn (twice), Villanova

Bad losses: Butler, Arizona State

Current trend: Won seven of last eight

Remaining: vs. Seton Hall

Rutgers (17-12)

NET: 81

Best wins: Purdue, Ohio State, Illinois, Wisconsin

Bad losses: Lafayette, UMass

Current trend: Lost three of last four

Remaining: vs. Penn State

C.L. Brown
The News & Observer
C.L. Brown covers the University of North Carolina for The News & Observer. Brown brings more than two decades of reporting experience including stints as the beat writer on Indiana University and the University of Louisville. After a long stay at the Louisville Courier-Journal, where he earned an APSE award, he’s had stops at ESPN.com, The Athletic and even tried his hand at running his own website, clbrownhoops.com.
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