UNC vs Wake Forest: History suggests high-scoring game as Heels try to clinch Coastal
North Carolina and Wake Forest played as nonconference opponents in two of the past three seasons because waiting around for the ACC division schedule was much too long for the in-state rivals.
Finally, in the last season of divisions, the Tar Heels and Demon Deacons will meet in a game that counts toward the ACC standings. And the Heels are trying to make it count as the last game they need to clinch the Coastal Division title and a spot in the ACC championship game.
Wake is just trying to recover after back-to-back losses on the road at Louisville and at N.C. State.
The last three meetings between the Heels and Deacs have all been decided by a touchdown or less. Wake won in 2019, the last time the game was played in Winston-Salem, 24-18. Carolina won the past two games, which were both played in Chapel Hill.
The Heels are unbeaten on the road this season and look to finish with a record sixth road win.
Offensive turnovers
Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman has thrown a total of six interceptions in his last two outings against Louisville and N.C. State. Hartman had just three interceptions through the first six games of the season.
One indicator of the likelihood of his picks comes down to how many passing attempts he’s had. In the five games this season Hartman has thrown 35 or more times, he has been intercepted at least once. In the games where he has less than 35 attempts, he has not been picked off.
The Deacons as a team had just three turnovers through their first six games, but they’ve inexplicably had 13 over their past three games. That was highlighted by their implosion at Louisville with five in the third quarter and eight for the game.
Carolina’s defense has registered at least one takeaway in every game this season with the exception of its win at Georgia State. The Heels have recorded 10 takeaways this season.
First team to 50 wins?
Carolina beat Wake 59-53 in 2020 and 58-55 last season. With the offenses they have this year, there’s no reason to expect a defensive struggle.
The Heels and Deacs are ranked 1 and 2, respectively, in the ACC in scoring offense. UNC is averaging 40.5 points per game, while Wake is averaging 36.8 points per game. And they feature, arguably, the best two quarterbacks in the league in Hartman and UNC’s Drake Maye.
Wake is second to last in ACC play in scoring defense, allowing 32.5 points per game. Carolina ranks last in total defense allowing 457.7 yards per game.
Three Wake Forest players to watch
Sam Hartman, QB: Despite his recent struggles, Hartman is still second behind Maye in the ACC in passing yards and passing touchdowns. He averages 302 passing yards per game and has thrown 24 touchdown passes in eight games.
A.T. Perry, WR: The 6-foot-5, fourth-year junior ranks fourth among ACC receivers in both catches (47) and receiving yards (711) and has six touchdowns. He torched UNC last season with six catches for 129 yards and two scores.
Ryan Smenda Jr., LB: Ranks in the top 20 for career tackles in Wake Forest program history. Is coming off tying his career-high with 16 tackles in their loss at N.C. State.
Three UNC players to watch
Drake Maye, QB: Is currently on a three game streak without throwing an interception, which is his longest stretch of the season. Maye has not thrown a pick since the third quarter against Miami, a string of 126 consecutive attempts.
Storm Duck, CB: Just got his second interception of the season against Virginia. More importantly for the Heels, he finally has moved past a mental block of playing after his injured foot healed. Duck and UNC’s secondary will be tested early and often by the Deacs.
Jahvaree Ritzie, DL: Made his first start at power end last week against Virginia due to the injuries to Des Evans and Noah Taylor. Ritzie has primarily played defensive tackle all season, but how quickly he adapts to the new position will be a factor as the Heels march toward the postseason.
Vegas betting odds
The Demon Deacons are a 2.5-point favorite according to VegasInsider.com’s consensus line.
UNC at Wake Forest game and TV info
Who: UNC (8-1, 5-0) vs. Wake Forest (6-3, 2-3)
Where: Truist Field, Winston-Salem
When: 7:30 p.m., Saturday
TV: ESPN2
Stream: ESPN+
This story was originally published November 7, 2022 at 6:10 AM.