Why UNC basketball may need more than win over Duke to make the NCAA tournament field
Here’s a short list of what a win over Duke on Saturday in Chapel Hill will do for North Carolina: Give the Tar Heels a confidence boost going into the ACC tournament; tie the Tar Heels with N.C. State for sixth place in the ACC standings; keep coach Hubert Davis’ record against Duke above .500.
Here’s an even shorter list of what a win over Duke won’t do: Make Carolina a lock for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.
The Tar Heels still likely couldn’t endure an early exit from Greensboro in the ACC tournament and still feel comfortable about getting into the big dance.
“We still know what’s at stake, we gotta go win Saturday and we got to be good in the ACC tournament, too,” UNC forward Armando Bacot said. “So we’re not taking a deep breath, we still have to keep our foot on the gas.”
Tournament prognosticators in ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm, both still have the Heels in the “first four out” category. Carolina only showed up on 22 of the 110 different mock tournament brackets tracked by Bracketmatrix.com.
A loss to the Blue Devils and Carolina will be a desperate team in the ACC tournament, especially if it again finds itself without a Quad 1 win in the NCAA NET rankings.
The metric used by the NCAA tournament committee uses an algorithm that doesn’t guarantee Carolina’s win over Virginia remains a Quad 1 win.
The Cavaliers dropped six spots when they lost to the Heels, and even fell back a spot to No. 29 after their win over Clemson on Tuesday. With their last game against Louisville, which is ranked 310, it’s conceivable that Virginia could drop past No. 30, which would move UNC’s win into a Quad 2 category.
Duke is currently No. 22 in the NET, meaning a win for Carolina would be a Quad 1 victory — for now. The Heels are just 1-8 in Quad 1 games. Since the NCAA began using the NET to replace the RPI in 2019, no team has received an at-large bid without at least one Quad 1 victory.
The Heels should be pulling for Michigan. The Wolverines close out the season at Illinois and at Indiana. If they win those two they would surely move into the top 50 in the NET rankings and reclassify to a Quad 1 victory for the Heels.
Here’s how the Heels stack up against other potential bubble teams:
UNC (19-11)
NET: 45
Records vs Quad 1: 1-8; vs Q2: 6-3; vs Q3: 7-0; vs Q4: 5-0
Best wins: Virginia (29), NC State (42), College of Charleston (51), Michigan (55)
Bad losses: None
Current trend: Won three straight
Remaining: vs Duke (22)
Clemson (21-9)
NET: 62
Records vs Q1: 4-3; Q2: 3-2; Q3: 6-2; Q4: 8-2
Best wins: Duke (22), NC State (42) twice, at Pitt (53)
Bad losses: South Carolina (234), Loyola Chicago (270), Louisville (310)
Current trend: Won three of past five
Remaining: vs Notre Dame (188)
Wisconsin (16-12)
Net: 74
Records vs Q1: 6-6; Q2: 4-5; Q3: 1-1; Q4: 5-0
Best wins: Marquette (13), Maryland (20), Iowa (33)
Bad losses: at Nebraska (94)
Current trend: Lost three of past five
Remaining: vs Purdue (5), at Minnesota (239)
New Mexico (20-9)
Net: 48
Records vs Q1: 3-4; Q2: 3-1; Q3: 8-3; Q4: 6-1
Best wins: St. Mary’s (7), San Diego State (16)
Bad losses: at Air Force (152), Wyoming (173)
Current trend: Lost six of past eight
Remaining: at Colorado State
Mississippi State (19-10)
Net: 44
Records vs Q1: 4-7; Q2: 4-2; Q3: 4-1; Q4: 8-0
Best wins: Marquette (13), at Arkansas (14), TCU (22), Texas A&M (24)
Bad losses: Georgia (150)
Current trend: Won eight of past 10
Remaining: at Vanderbilt
Arizona State (20-9)
Net: 61
Records vs Q1: 4-2; Q2: 4-6; Q3: 5-0; Q4: 7-1
Best wins: Arizona (12), Creighton (15), Michigan (55)
Bad losses: Texas Southern (312), San Francisco (120)
Current trend: Won four of past five
Remaining: at UCLA, at USC
Oklahoma State (16-14)
Net: 47
Records vs Q1: 5-11; Q2: 3-2; Q3: 3-1; Q4: 5-0
Best wins: TCU (21), West Virginia (23), Iowa State (27) twice
Bad losses: Southern Illinois (117)
Current trend: Lost past five
Remaining: at Texas Tech
Michigan (17-12)
Net: 55
Records vs Q1: 3-10; Q2: 6-1; Q3: 4-0; Q4: 4-1
Best wins: Maryland (20), Rutgers (32), Michigan State (31)
Bad losses: Central Michigan (323)
Current trend: Won six of past eight
Remaining: at Illinois, at Indiana
Nevada (22-8)
Net: 35
Records vs Q1: 4-5 Q2: 5-2 Q3: 7-1 Q4: 5-0
Best wins: San Diego State (16), Boise State (26), Utah State (30)
Bad losses: at Wyoming (173), Loyola Marymout (102)
Current trend: Lost two of past four
Remaining: at Utah State
This story was originally published March 1, 2023 at 2:07 PM.