UNC withers late — again: 3 takeaways from the Tar Heels’ ACC road loss to Pittsburgh
North Carolina arrived in cold, snow-covered Pittsburgh on Monday perhaps not in the midst of a season on the brink, but without question in the middle of one with an ever-shrinking margin of error. The rising pressure surrounding the Tar Heels had to be freeing, in some ways, given the stakes are so clear: if they’re to find a higher level, the ascent has to start now.
Their game here at Pitt on Tuesday night was never going to be a season-maker. Not with Duke looming at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday. Not with a trip not far beyond that to Clemson, or a run of relatively manageable conference games starting in mid-February and stretching into March, before Duke’s visit to Chapel Hill at the end of the regular season.
Even so, approaching late January, UNC has for a while now appeared stuck in neutral. Not falling into disarray, despite disappointing recent defeats against Stanford and Wake Forest. Certainly not rising, or allowing for much hope, either, amid an endless run of uneven, often uninspired performances.
The Tar Heels have teetered. They’ve wobbled. They’ve managed, even, to excel, at times.
And they did all of those things in a 73-65 defeat at Pitt Tuesday, in a performance that proved to be a microcosm of their season. Good, at times? The Tar Heels were indeed for stretches at the Petersen Events Center. They led by 10 late in the first half and by seven early in the second, when it looked like they just might seize control.
But then there was the not-so good. The 8-0 run the Tar Heels surrendered during a sloppy final two minutes before halftime. And then another 8-0 run UNC gave up after it’d steadied itself after halftime – one that Pitt used to take a one-point lead that had Tar Heels coach Hubert Davis calling for a timeout.
And then the final minutes, too — and again, in a season of late-game letdowns — when UNC went more than three minutes without a point, missed 10 of their final 11 attempts from the field and allowed the Panthers to score the final nine points, which were part of a larger 14-2 run over the final five-plus minutes.
And so ended a painful and yet familiar kind of defeat for the Tar Heels.
The takeaways from their meltdown of a loss at Pitt:
Tar Heels NCAA Tournament resume took a major blow
Yes, it was only game. And yes, it’s not even February yet — though will be Saturday when UNC travels to Durham.
But for a team desperate to change narratives and enhance its postseason resume, the damage of a defeat like this cannot be overstated. The how of it all is one thing. Once again UNC had a chance to notch a victory against a quality opponent and just couldn’t. Once again, it faltered late (and more on that in a moment).
The most damaging part of this, though, are the implications. This was a chance for the Tar Heels to earn a coveted Quad 1 victory. To be sure, the NCAA’s NET metric is flawed and deserves a lot of the criticism it receives. As long as it plays a significant role in selecting and seeding the field, though, it’s going to have outsize influence.
And right now, in late January, it just doesn’t look good for the Tar Heels, who are now 1-8 in Quad 1 games. Had they found a way to hold on Tuesday night, they’d be 2-7. That one-game difference might not look all that different, or seem so, but if UNC finds itself on the NCAA Tournament bubble in mid-March, it’s going to need all the help it can get.
Davis said it himself late Tuesday night: “We have a thin margin for error.”
That’s true in many ways for his team these days, and it’s why this defeat hurts as much as it does. UNC simply can’t afford to give away chances for Quad 1 wins. They don’t come around often, especially given the poor state of affairs this season (and in recent seasons) in the ACC.
Another late-game meltdown
In this up-and-down, inconsistent season, the Tar Heels have been consistently inconsistent. From game to game or even from possession to possession, they’ve been maddening and unpredictable — flashing glimpses of potential in one instant and then suffering through painful mistakes in the next.
This much, though, has come to be fairly reliable: If it’s a close game late, the Tar Heels will likely find a way to lose. It happened against Michigan State and Florida and more recently against Stanford and Wake Forest and again here on Tuesday night. The circumstances and details might change. The results remain consistent, usually — outside of the Tar Heels’ comeback Saturday against Boston College, which arrived in Chapel Hill as a significant underdog.
The numbers from Tuesday night are ghastly: Seven consecutive missed shots from the field to end the game. Four points in the final eight minutes, which almost seems inconceivable. The Tar Heels were 1-for-11 from the field down the stretch. UNC led 65-64 with a little less than three and a half minutes remaining and didn’t score again, while Pitt scored the final nine points of the game.
Yes, that’ll do it.
“It’s kind of like the same movie over and over again at this point,” said senior guard RJ Davis, adding a little bit later that it’s “kind of just like the same thing over and over again.”
With Duke looming, the margin of error is non-existent.
And not just Duke. But a rematch with Pitt the week after that, and then trips to Clemson and Syracuse.
Tuesday began, without a doubt, the most difficult stretch of conference games UNC will play this season. Five games, four of them on the road — including ones at Duke and at Clemson, the league’s two best teams. The Tar Heels will be significant underdogs in both of those. Can they win either one? As crazy as it sounds, the answer is probably yes.
The Tar Heels have shown an ability to play with anyone, for stretches. But can they finish? Can they get out of their own way? Can they avoid those debilitating mistakes that turn into significant runs for the other team? UNC entered this five-game stretch needing to win at least two of these games to avoid what looked like the worst-case scenario.
At home against Pitt and at Syracuse are now as close to must-wins as any early February games can be. Beating Duke at Duke and winning at Clemson is another story, entirely, and the Tar Heels are an especially bad match-up with Duke. Saturday could be ugly, but stranger things have certainly happened in this rivalry.
The greater question: How does a team that continues losing like this keep it together? When does the mental toll start taking effect? Or has it aleady?
This story was originally published January 28, 2025 at 11:31 PM.
