Quick scout: UNC vs. UVA. Here’s everything you need to know about the Cavaliers
North Carolina’s 74-49 loss to Ohio State on Wednesday was one of the top three most frustrating moments Roy Williams has had as a head coach, he said on Friday.
Nothing went right. The Tar Heels were outrebounded by 16, they shot 27 percent from the floor and it resulted in their worst home loss in the Roy Williams era.
To make matters worse, UNC plays No. 5 Virginia on Sunday, a team that can cause those same frustrations.
When asked Friday how to attack Virginia, Williams said he didn’t have a good answer. The Tar Heels have lost their last four games to Virginia. Its last win was in 65-41 win in February 2017.
“You’ve got to make shots,” Williams added. “It’s going to be a low possession game. You’ve got to make some shots. You’ve got to make sure they don’t get second shot opportunities, and you’ve got to try to get second shot opportunities.”
Virginia, which lost badly to Purdue in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge (69-40), is the third consecutive ranked opponent the Tar Heels will face this season, and fourth, if you count Michigan, which entered the AP Top 25 earlier this week.
If the Tar Heels lose, it will be their third loss in four games.
Here is a quick scout of Virginia:
Virginia’s KenPom rankings: 10
UNC head-to-head with Virginia: 131-57
Virginia’s record: 7-1
Last game: L 69-40 at Purdue on Dec. 4
Head coach: Tony Bennett
Weaknesses
▪ Shooting percentage. Of the eight players who have played in six of Virginia’s eight games this season, only one — Jay Huff — is shooting above 50 percent.
As a team, the Cavaliers are shooting 23.8 percent from 3-point range, which is 348th out of 353 Division I teams. By comparison, the Tar Heels are shooting 30.3 percent from 3.
Strengths
▪ Defense. But this is par for the course. Virginia has consistently been one of the top defensive teams each year since Bennett arrived. This season, Virginia has the country’s most-efficient defense.
No opponent has scored more than 69 points against Virginia’s Pack Line defense. Opponents are shooting 34.2 percent from inside the arc, and 28 percent from behind the arc against Virginia.
▪ Experience. The Cavaliers are the defending national champions, and while they are missing their top three players from that team, they still have some experience. Four players on this year’s Virginia team played important minutes for the Cavaliers last season.
Player to watch
Mamadi Diakete.
The 6-9, 224-pound forward is averaging 14.2 points per game and 7.5 rebounds.
His offensive game has improved since last year. He’s long, and has shown some good low post moves. He’s even stepping outside the 3-point line to hit the occasional 3-pointer. Diakete takes the majority of the Cavaliers’ shots and is shooting 46.7 percent from the floor overall.
Prediction
There’s a joke circulating on Twitter that the first team to 40 points wins.
The Tar Heels will be without freshman forward Armando Bacot, who suffered a sprained ankle in Wednesday’s game against Ohio State. Bacot leads the Tar Heels in rebounds (8.9) and blocked shots (1.8) per game.
UVA is also without one of its best players in senior Braxton Key, who is out indefinitely following wrist surgery. Key was averaging 10.3 points per game and a team-high 8.3 rebounds.
But after poor performances by Virginia and UNC in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, where the two teams scored season lows in points, I think both teams will be motivated to play much better.
Don’t get me wrong. This will still be a low-scoring game. Virginia likes to slow the pace. And both teams are among the country’s best defensively — and in Virginia’s case, the best.
But Bennett and Williams are two of the country’s best coaches and will make adjustments.
Virginia loves to pack the paint and prevent teams from getting easy buckets. That occasionally will allow opportunities for open 3-pointers. Purdue hit those 3-pointers against UVA, finishing 13-for-25 from behind the arc.
The Tar Heels will have to do the same.
But in the end, I think Bacot’s injury will have a larger effect on the Tar Heels than Key’s injury. What Bacot does for the Tar Heels — rebounds, blocks shots, scores in the paint — is so important. And they won’t have that.
Also, Virginia will be at home, so I’m giving them the edge here.
Virginia 54, UNC 50
UNC vs. Virginia
When: Sunday, Dec. 8, 4 p.m.
Where: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, Va.
TV: ACC Network
Listen: WTKK-106.1 Raleigh; WCHL-97.9, WCHL-1360 Chapel Hill; WBT-99.3, WBT-1110 Charlotte
This story was originally published December 7, 2019 at 4:50 PM.
