Quick scout: Roy Williams will try and tie Dean Smith against Yale
If North Carolina beats Yale on Monday, coach Roy Williams will tie his mentor and Hall of Fame coach Dean Smith for the fifth-most wins in NCAA history.
Williams, who was a former assistant at UNC under Smith from 1978 to 1988, is currently in sixth place with 878 wins.
But getting this win might not be as easy as it seems. Yale is hot, riding a seven-game winning streak, including its most recent win against Clemson.
The Tar Heels, meanwhile, are coming off a rough December. They lost four consecutive games before beating UCLA 74-64 on Dec. 21. It was an important victory for a Tar Heels team dealing with a number of injuries, and still trying to find its way without its best player, Cole Anthony.
Anthony, a freshman guard, is out for at least a month after having an arthroscopic knee procedure on his knee on Dec. 16.
Harvard was picked to win the Ivy League, but Yale could give the Crimson a run for its money.
Here is a quick scout of the Bulldogs:
Yale’s KenPom rankings: 71
UNC head-to-head with Yale: 6-1
Yale’s record: 10-3
Last game: W 54-45 vs. Clemson, Dec. 22
Head coach: James Jones
Weaknesses
▪ The Bulldogs rank 319th out of 353 Division I teams in offensive rebounding percentage. They rebound 22.4 percent of their misses, which means they are not getting many second chance opportunities.
▪ The Bulldogs are turning it over on 20.2 percent of their possessions. More than half of those turnovers have come from steals. Opponents force steals on 11.3 percent of their possessions.
Strengths
▪ The Bulldogs have a team full of experienced players. Most of their key contributors this season are seniors and juniors. And most of those players were on the team that played in the NCAA tournament last year.
▪ Teams have struggled against Yale when shooting the 3. Opponents are shooting 25.9 percent from behind the arc., which is ranked fifth in the country.
Player to watch
Paul Atkinson.
The 6-10, 220-pound junior forward is averaging a team-high 17.2 points per game and 7.2 rebounds. He is also shooting 65.2 percent from the floor. He scored 20 points and was 8 of 10 from the floor in Yale’s win over Clemson.
UNC forward Armando Bacot will probably be tasked with slowing him down.
Prediction
The Tar Heels got a nice surprise out of freshmen Anthony Harris and Jeremiah Francis last week. The two players, who were injured to start the season, combined to score 26 points against UCLA. Francis created shots for his teammates and Harris played well defensively. Harris also hit a couple of 3-pointers.
But UNC still has not proven it can score on a consistent basis. Yale has to the size to match the Tar Heels, and multiple scorers. Three players average 10 points or more, including Atkinson.
Yale plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they make things difficult for their opponents. And injuries, and the uncertainty of who will play on a day-to-day basis, seems to have caught up to the Tar Heels.
For that reason, I’m picking Yale.
Yale 63 UNC 60
UNC vs. Yale
When: Monday, Dec. 30, 7 p.m.
Where: Dean Smith Center, Chapel Hill
TV: ACCNetwork
Listen: WTKK-106.1 Raleigh; WCHL-97.9, WCHL-1360 Chapel Hill; WBT-99.3, WBT-1110 Charlotte
This story was originally published December 30, 2019 at 6:00 AM.
