ACC still has a place for seniors

Seniors still matter in the ACC.

Duke, fueled by three fabulous freshmen, won the national title last season but the Blue Devils did not win the ACC title.

Notre Dame, behind the senior duo of Pat Connaughton and Jerian Grant, took home the ACC championship last season. Virginia, with two senior stars, won the conference title the season before that. In 2013, it was Miami and its senior-laden lineup, preceded by Florida State and its group of seniors in 2012.

That pattern bodes well for North Carolina this season, even with senior guard Marcus Paige sidelined at the start of the season with a broken bone in his right hand.

The Tar Heels, by the start of the ACC schedule, will have two strong seniors – Paige and forward Brice Johnson – to lead an experienced group that won 26 games last season and reached the Sweet 16.

Virginia, which finished first in the past two regular seasons, should be UNC’s main competition with four senior starters in guards Malcolm Brogdon and Evan Nolte, forward Anthony Gill and center Mike Tobey.

Miami and coach Jim Larranaga might be able to reprise its winning formula with three senior starters, including guard Sheldon McClellan, who averaged more points per game (14.5) than all but two returning players.

Duke, after Mike Krzyzewski’s fifth national title, will be a factor in the conference race and again the Blue Devils will need their freshman class to contribute, albeit not as much as last season.

Duke added three more McDonald’s All-Americans, led by Kinston product Brandon Ingram, plus point guard Derryck Thornton.

Duke’s new group of freshmen will be compared to last season’s trio of Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones, who led the Blue Devils to a 68-63 win against Wisconsin in the national championship game.

Okafor was the ACC Player of the Year and the No. 3 pick in the NBA draft, joined in the first round by Winslow and Jones. All three averaged more than 11.8 points per game and accounted for 52.5 percent of Duke’s offense last season.

Is it fair to compare Duke’s talented and ultra-successful newcomers on last season’s team to this new group?

“What’s fair?” Krzyzewski asked at ACC Operation Basketball last month in Charlotte. “But that’s the way it is.”

Duke, by the way, will regularly start senior forward Amile Jefferson and graduate Marshall Plumlee – so the Blue Devils will have some experience to rely on.

Your guide to the 2015-16 ACC basketball season:

Five games to watch

1. Kentucky vs. Duke (at Chicago), Nov. 17: Maybe a season late, but Kentucky’s latest group of one-and-done stars meets up with Duke’s most recent batch of recruiting gems.

2. Maryland at UNC, Dec. 1: The Terps will open the season as the favorite in the Big Ten and will bring Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon with them for their first trip back to Chapel Hill as a former ACC team.

3. N.C. State at UNC, Jan. 16: The Wolfpack held the Tar Heels to 46 points, the fewest UNC has ever scored at the Smith Center, in its first road win in the rivalry since 2003.

4. Duke at UNC, Feb. 17: The first game between these two is always the most interesting, and it marks the unofficial start of the college basketball season for casual fans.

5. UNC at Virginia, Feb. 27: The Cavaliers only have two games with Duke and UNC (again) and they get the Tar Heels at John Paul Jones Arena, where they’ve won 26 of their past 27 ACC games.

Five names to watch

1. Justin Jackson, UNC: A year older and stronger, the sophomore guard’s scoring average (10.7 per game) could take a significant jump, particularly during Paige’s early absence.

2. Cat Barber, N.C. State: Like T.J. Warren and Trevor Lacey before him, the junior point guard moves into the “bus driver” role as the Wolfpack seeks a fifth straight NCAA tournament bid.

3. Grayson Allen, Duke: “I love that kid,” Krzyzewski said. All you need to know about the sophomore and lone holdover from the fabulous recruiting class of 2014.

4. Zach Auguste, Notre Dame: Was the 20-point, nine-rebound performance against Kentucky a sign of greatness to come from the senior forward? The Fighting Irish are banking on it.

5. London Perrantes, Virginia: He’s not Joe Harris or Justin Anderson, but the junior point guard’s value to the Cavaliers might be in their class by the end of the season.

Welcome

1. Brandon Ingram, Duke: Bucked the Kinston tradition and picked Duke over UNC. He’s not Winslow, but that doesn’t mean he can’t do some damage in the ACC.

2. Kamari Murphy, Miami: The rugged redshirt junior forward joins Angel Rodriguez (Kansas State) and Sheldon McClellan (Texas) on Miami’s Big 12 all-star team.

3. Damion Lee, Louisville: The graduate transfer guard from Drexel can fill it up (21.4 points per game) and will be the centerpiece of Louisville’s re-tooled lineup.

4. Eli Carter, Boston College: Another graduate transfer (from Florida), Carter won’t be Olivier Hanlan, but he’ll have to carry the water for the Eagles.

5. Seth Allen, Virginia Tech: Maryland left the ACC, but the redshirt junior guard didn’t. Allen jumped to the Hokies, where he’ll be an instant talent upgrade in Buzz Williams’ backcourt.

We’ll miss

1. The Duke freshmen: A player like Okafor comes around maybe once every 20 years, if you’re lucky. To have him with Winslow and Jones was a Duke coup.

2. Trevor Lacey, N.C. State: Clutch, one-on-one scorer broke Mark Gottfried’s heart by jumping to a pro career in Italy.

3. Pat Connaughton, Notre Dame: Pure guts, underrated talent, his leadership will be missed by the Irish.

4. Rakeem Christmas, Syracuse: While Syracuse burned last season, the big man quietly delivered 17.5 points per game and 9.1 rebounds per game.

5. Olivier Hanlan, Boston College: The definition of “no help,” Hanlan led the ACC in scoring (19.5 ppg) despite every team being geared to stop him.

Predicted order of finish (with projected ACC record in parenthesis):

1. UNC (15-3): That’s a four-game jump in the standings from last season, but Jackson and forward Isaiah Hicks should provide the extra lift.

2. Virginia (14-4): The Wahoos have back-to-back 16-2 ACC marks. They’ll be in the thick of the race again behind Brogdon and Perrantes.

3. Miami (13-5): FSU is getting more love than the Canes. That’s a mistake that will be corrected come March.

4. Duke (12-6): The Blue Devils have to reinvent the wheel again, and Allen and Ingram will have to be outstanding for Duke to win its first ACC title since 2011.

5. Notre Dame (12-6): Huge hit in losing Connaughton and Grant, but the Irish have confidence and a capable returning trio in Auguste, Demetrius Jackson and Stevie Vasturia.

6. Pittsburgh (10-8): Everybody’s sleeping on the Panthers. Junior forward Jamel Artis is the best player in the ACC nobody’s talking about.

7. FSU (10-8): The Seminoles will be deep and sophomore guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes won’t be shy. Their success will depend on how well, and quickly, the new parts blend with the old.

8. N.C. State (9-9): Barber and forward Abdul-Malik Abu will have to carry the Wolfpack, which might follow the recent pattern of struggling early and finding itself late.

9. Louisville (9-9): Almost a complete roster turnover from a Final Eight team with Lee, Cleveland State transfer Trey Lewis and freshman Deng Adel being counted on as new leaders.

10. Syracuse (9-9): The Orange won’t have coach Jim Boeheim for nine ACC games, after an NCAA suspension, but will have a veteran backcourt in seniors Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije.

11. Clemson (7-11): The Tigers are as tough as scrap metal under Brad Brownell, but they need more scoring. Forwards Jaron Blossomgame and Donte Grantham are Brownell’s best hope.

12. Virginia Tech (6-12): Buzz Williams made chicken salad out of last season’s limited roster. The addition of Allen and freshman wing Chris Clarke should triple the ACC win total.

13. Wake Forest (4-14): Danny Manning feels good about top-100 recruits Bryant Crawford, Doral Moore and John Collins. They’re going to need some time grow up.

14. Georgia Tech (3-15): Transfer guard Adam Smith jumps from Virginia Tech. The results probably will look about the same.

15. Boston College (2-16): Carter and senior big man Dennis Clifford offer second-year coach Jim Christian some experience, but the Eagles are woefully short on ACC-level talent.

This story was originally published November 11, 2015 at 6:04 PM with the headline "ACC still has a place for seniors."