What Vegas Thinks: ‘Notable’ movement in USC’s favor as bettors sour on Kentucky
Despite starting the season 1-3, South Carolina football opened this week as the slight favorite in its home game with SEC East rival Kentucky. That line has since shifted even more in favor of the Gamecocks to the tune of three points.
With ESPN’s Power Football Index now projecting South Carolina to win just 4.4 games this season and hopes of a bowl game in serious jeopardy, the Gamecocks and coach Will Muschamp are seeking to end not only a six-game losing streak against Power 5 opponents, but also a five-game losing streak to Kentucky.
Ahead of Saturday’s night game, The State spoke with longtime gambling industry reporter David Purdum, of ESPN Chalk, to get his thoughts on the betting side of USC-UK.
The State: What’s the consensus line at right now?
David Purdum: The consensus line is at three (points) right now, that’s notable movement from where it opened as low as 1.5 at some places.
TS: Is movement like that towards key scoring numbers more common in close games?
DP: To get it all the way up to three is pretty significant. Three is not as critical in college as it is in the NFL, but it is still a key number that people look to. For them to get all the way up to three was notable. I saw one oddsmaker tweet out that people are really betting on South Carolina, and there was some money that came in that moved the number, so there’s some belief in the Gamecocks this week.
TS: Why do you think that is, considering South Carolina is 1-3?
DP: I think a little bit of it is anti-Kentucky money as much as it is pro-South Carolina. They have struggled as well, got beat pretty bad last week. So I would say it’s a combination, and I would say it’s more anti-Kentucky money than it is pro-South Carolina.
TS: Kentucky’s working with a backup quarterback and it seems like Las Vegas is pretty down on them at the moment.
DP: No, to make South Carolina a small favorite. If Kentucky does not have its quarterback issues, who knows what would have happened? But you would probably assume they would have been a small favorite in this game. To make South Carolina a small favorite, for the number to run all the way up to three is definitely notable.
TS: Do things like Kentucky’s five-year winning streak over South Carolina factor into the spread and oddsmakers’ decisions?
DP: Very minimal. Again, they’re not going to look at past seasons’ results that much. They’re going to look at the talent that’s currently on the field and gauge it from there.
This story was originally published September 25, 2019 at 6:45 PM with the headline "What Vegas Thinks: ‘Notable’ movement in USC’s favor as bettors sour on Kentucky."
