A make-or-break year approaches for Nikola Jović

Nikola Jović had a disappointing fourth season right after signing his contract extension, and he finished the year hurt with a right ankle sprain. His value is the lowest it could possibly be, but he is salvageable because his talents are suited for the run-and-stun offense which could return next season (depending on the personnel).

He can take some comfort in not being the only one who struggled to pick up the new offense because Bam Adebayo did, too. Still, Jović has shown promise in the past with the team and in some moments of international play. For him to get better, coach Erik Spoelstra says he can't "have a victim mindset," and that he needs to get back in the lab.

Since he's going into year five, developmental resources will sparsely go to him if they do at all, since younger players get more of a priority. Even with his shortcomings, it would be hard for Spoelstra to bench him if he became one of the team's top four defenders. Considering his size and length, it should be priority number one. Maintaining a strong defense is the best way to ensure the team has a strong transition attack, and his area of focus should be upgrading his backpedaling so he can play closer to the arc to pressure shooters.

On top of that, Spoelstra sees a parallel with Jović and his string of bad luck: Jaime Jaquez Jr's second season, in which injuries derailed any chance of his progress. Jaquez then came back as the team's third-most important player in 2025-26.

Perhaps Jović should try to get in contact with Dwyane Wade for some Jedi mind training or someone who has dealt with expectations. There were too many times that his body language was shot after a poor sequence, and he played like he was 5'7. He needs to do a better job of rolling with those punches without turning into a reckless player.

Some of his mental fortitude could improve with age since he is only 22. But his progress is time sensitive as a make-or-break year is coming in 2026-27, in which his extension money kicks in. If this is as good as he will look, Pat Riley likely won't threaten him with a trade to NBA Siberia (at the time it was Cleveland) like he did back in the day, but they'll cut their losses and try to get rid of him at the first moment they can.

Another area he needs growth in is becoming a half-court threat. This starts with tightening the handle and close-range finishing. It's more important than ever as long as the Heat keep playing this offensive style since it generates the lowest screen frequency in the NBA, and a downhill attacker needs to create leverage by himself so that others can have easier shots.

While he may be low on the totem pole, Adebayo hasn't lost confidence in him. The team captain said at exit interviews regarding Jović, "You've got another opportunity to get better. You've got another chance to change the narrative around your name."

This article was originally published on www.si.com/nba/heat/onsi as A make-or-break year approaches for Nikola Jović.

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This story was originally published April 17, 2026 at 9:30 AM.