Luke DeCock

Rating Duke, UNC, NC State chances in NCAA tournament

Breaking down the probabilities and advanced metrics for the Triangle’s teams in the Sweet 16.


chance to make Final Four: 32.0%

chance to win title: 7.9%

chance to make FF: 43%

chance to win title: 12%


chance to make FF: 7.7%

chance to win title: 0.8%

chance to make FF: 8%

chance to win title: 1%


chance to make FF: 12.8%

chance to win title: 0.4%

chance to make FF: 17%

chance to win title: <1%


▪ The 13 teams in the NCAA tournament that take the highest percentage of 3-point shots have been eliminated, including Villanova, Maryland and Northern Iowa, as well as 19 of the top 22. The three still alive? Notre Dame, Utah and Wisconsin.

▪ It’s no secret that North Carolina likes to play fast and Wisconsin likes to play slow. predicts 63 possessions in this game; North Carolina is 2-4 in games with fewer than 65 possessions this season. Wisconsin has played only five games with more than 65 possessions, none since December. Wisconsin’s fastest game (70 possessions) is almost exactly North Carolina’s average pace (69.8).


▪ The Wolfpack is 4-5 vs. teams among the top 20 of the efficiency ratings this season.

▪ Since Chris Jones was kicked off the team, Quentin Snider has taken his starting spot. Snider’s offensive efficiency in Louisville’s five wins as a starter: 116.8. In Louisville’s three losses: 78.0.

▪ The teams stack up evenly in many ways, except for one category: N.C. State’s defensive turnover percentage of 15.1 percent is among the worst in the country. The Wolfpack forced only five turnovers in its win at Louisville but held the Cardinals to 29.5 percent shooting. That happens to be Louisville’s big weakness, with an effective field-goal percentage (weighting two- and 3-point attempts) that ranks 308th nationally.


▪ They say defense wins championships, but six of the top seven teams and 10 of the top 20 in offensive efficiency remain alive, and only six of the top 20 in defensive efficiency. Duke is second, Utah 16th.

▪ This is an interesting matchup of opposing strengths: Utah is one of the best teams in the country at getting to the line (29th nationally in free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt), particularly because of Delon Wright and Jakob Poeltl, although Poeltl is a miserable shooter once he gets there. Duke is one of the best at keeping teams off the line (fifth nationally). Luke DeCock

Thursday’s games

7:15: Notre Dame vs. Wichita St., CBS

7:47: North Carolina vs. Wisconsin, TBS

9:45: Kentucky vs. West Virginia, CBS

10:17: Arizona vs. Xavier, TBS

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