Canes-Caps series to be won or lost in the heart of Carolina’s zone
It’s not about goaltending or the Washington Capitals’ power play or any of that if everything goes as expected for the Carolina Hurricanes in this first-round series, although not giving up any bad goals and staying out of the penalty box would be advised, to say the least.
If everything else performs to expectations, the battlefield where this series will be won or lost in the middle of the ice in front of the Carolina net, where strength meets strength and the difference in styles between these two teams becomes readily apparent.
The Hurricanes like to shoot, in volume, from anywhere and everywhere on the ice, trying to create scoring opportunities and chaos. The Capitals are the opposite, taking fewer and better shots, almost exclusively from directly in front of the net, from crease to blue line, putting their elite offensive players in position to pick corners and do elite offensive things.
Micah McCurdy, of the analytics site Hockeyviz.com, produced an outstanding visual breakdown of this phenomenon, with a giant blotch of red between the circles for Washington and a big red dot around the net for Carolina with red all around the perimeter: generally speaking, shots leading to rebounds.
While the Hurricanes’ style doesn’t really pose a specific challenge to the Capitals – it’ll work or it won’t – the Hurricanes can’t compete, let alone win, if they allow the kinds of shots the Capitals like to take. If the Hurricanes can keep the Capitals bottled up on the perimeter, Washington’s skill advantage can be somewhat neutralized and it’s anyone’s series.
“That’s why I think they’re one of the elite teams they’re comfortable getting 3-4 shots a game,” Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour said. they’re waiting for that chance. They create it, they look for it. … Do we have to change anything? No. We’re certainly not changing anything. But we have to be aware at some of the things we gave up this year against them.”
The Hurricanes gave up 16 goals in the four games against Washington this season, going 0-3-1, and it’s not just the structured, in-the-zone offense where the Capitals get to dangerous places in the middle of the ice to create and finish scoring chances; they do it on the rush, too, which puts even more of a test on the Hurricanes’ defensive structure.
“They score a lot of goals off the rush, a lot of goals off turnovers,” said Hurricanes captain Justin Williams, who would know given his time with the Capitals. “They can do that because they have the high-end talent to make plays other guys won’t be able to make.”
None of that matters if the tandem of Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney can’t at least duel Braden Holtby to a draw, if not outplay him, and it’s probably worth noting that while the red-hot Mrazek gets the start Thursday, the exiled Scott Darling recorded the only point against the Capitals.
And none of that matters on the power play, where Alex Ovechkin will score from the left circle no matter what the opposition does. The only way to avoid that is to play a clean game, stay in position, avoid needless offensive-zone penalties (somewhere, Andrei Svechnikov just looked up, hearing his name spoken on the wind) and stay out of the box unless it’s the kind of cynical but necessary penalty that can deny a goal.
But at even strength, there’s a battle to be won. And a series to be won. Or lost.
This story was originally published April 11, 2019 at 3:52 PM.
