Luke DeCock’s AP Top 25 basketball poll ballot: Week 2

If it feels like we’ve yet to have a really titanic upset this season — and unranked Arizona beating No. 4 Michigan late Sunday night really wasn’t, for reasons to be explained shortly — it’s because we haven’t.

Only five teams that started the season in the top 40 of Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings have lost to a team outside the top 40 at the time of the game, and it would be absolutely zero shock to see all of the winning teams in the NCAA tournament come March.

The full list, with the winning team’s ranking at the time: Illinois to Marquette (77), Louisville to Furman (114), Colorado to Southern Illinois (133), Maryland to George Mason (138), Oklahoma State to Oakland (156).

The vast majority of the losses by top teams have been to each other. Michigan’s two losses were to Seton Hall (31) and Arizona (20), both talented teams that were flying under the radar to start the season. Tennessee lost to Villanova (8). Villanova has lost twice, to UCLA (7) and Purdue (3). North Carolina has lost twice, to Purdue (3) and Tennessee (11). Ohio State’s loss to Xavier (32) isn’t all that bad. BYU beat both Oregon and San Diego State but was ranked 25th at the time of both games. And so on.

Which says two things:

One, we’ve had some really good games. Without going back and looking at the numbers from past seasons, it feels like we’ve had a better early nonconference slate. It may also just feel that way coming out of the pandemic. It may also just be Villanova playing Gonzaga, Tennessee and Purdue. Either way, thumbs up.

Two, we’ve yet to have any really earth-shaking upsets. The country’s better teams have, for the most part, taken care of business. Even their bad losses aren’t that bad. We’ll see how long that lasts.

The two “good” losses were enough to drop North Carolina from the ballot, and Oregon and Furman exit as well, in part to make room for Arizona and BYU. San Francisco gets the nod for the final spot over Seton Hall, but it was a coin flip.

THIS SEASON’S BALLOTS

Week 1 (Preseason) Week 2

THIS WEEK’S TOP 25 BASKETBALL BALLOT

1. Gonzaga (Last week: 1)

2. Memphis (2)

3. Kansas (3)

4. UCLA (4)

5. Purdue (6)

6. Duke (7)

7. Texas (8)

8. Baylor (11)

9. Houston (13)

10. Villanova (9)

11. Michigan (5)

12. Alabama (14)

13. Illinois (10)

14. Tennessee (12)

15. St. Bonaventure (15)

16. Connecticut (17)

17. Kentucky (19)

18. Xavier (20)

19. Arkansas (22)

20. Florida (24)

21. Arizona (NR)

22. BYU (NR)

23. Ohio State (21)

24. Maryland (18)

25. San Francisco (NR)

OUT UNC (16), Oregon (23), Furman (25)

This story was originally published November 22, 2021 at 9:08 AM.

Luke DeCock

The News & Observer

Luke DeCock is a former journalist for the News & Observer.