Democrats' Chances of Flipping Florida in the Midterms-Poll

As Democrats hope to stage a comeback in Florida’s 2026 Senate and gubernatorial races, a poll released by the Florida Chamber of Commerce on Friday gave Republicans single-digit leads.

Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, so Democrats are hoping to win seats in more conservative states like Florida in November. The Sunshine State, once a premier battleground state, has shifted steadily to the right in recent cycles, backing President Donald Trump by double-digits in the 2024 presidential race.

But the state was seen as competitive less than a decade ago, and Democrats believe Florida could again be competitive if Hispanic and Latino voters shift back to them in this year's elections.

Florida Senate Race: What Poll Shows About Ashley Moody vs. Alexander Vindman

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Republican Ashley Moody to serve the remainder of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's term that began in 2022. She is running to finish the term in this year's special Senate race.

Alexander Vindman, a key figure in the 2019 Trump impeachment, is running against several other Democrats in the primary, including state Representative Angie Nixon.

Moody led Vindman by 8 points in the new poll, with 48 percent of respondents saying they would back the incumbent Republican and 40 percent saying they would support her Democratic challenger. It did not include results of a matchup against Nixon.

The poll surveyed 604 Floridians from May 1-9 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was conducted by Cherry Communications on behalf of the Florida Chamber.

Florida Governor Race: What Poll Shows About Byron Donalds vs. Democrats

Representative Byron Donalds led the race to succeed DeSantis as governor in the new poll against two potential Democratic rivals.

In a matchup against former Representative David Jolly, 47 percent said they would support Donalds, while 39 percent said they would cast their ballots for Jolly. Donalds held a similar lead over Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, with 48 percent saying they would support him compared to 39 percent for the Democratic candidate.

This is a breaking news story. Updates will follow.

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This story was originally published May 15, 2026 at 11:49 AM.