NC Democrats need to focus on winning votes, then push redistricting reform

Politicians from both parties are nervously awaiting redistricting instructions from the state Supreme Court that could come any day. North Carolina is one of several states under U.S. Supreme Court directives to bring election maps into compliance with the federal Voting Rights Act.

State lawsuits accuse Republican-led legislatures of illegally “packing” too many African-Americans and other minorities into too few districts, thus diluting their ability to influence elections in other districts. Since African-Americans overwhelmingly vote Democratic, the GOP-drawn maps have allowed Republicans to gain undeserved legislative and congressional seats.

Movement to reform redistricting and end gerrymandering has been bubbling around the country as a result of federal and state litigation and citizen activism. Virginia, Florida and Ohio are states where Democrats stand to make modest gains as the courts – and the legislature in Ohio’s case – make substantive redistricting changes.

But in North Carolina, redistricting remains the exclusive province of the General Assembly. It’s unclear that even if ordered to revise the maps, GOP legislators would make more than superficial changes to satisfy the ruling. That would likely perpetuate patterns where Democrats have won half the statewide vote but end up with barely a third of the seats.

A recent News & Observer editorial described the current districts as “so aggressively gerrymandered it would take a pitch-fork rebellion by voters to end the GOP majority.” That’s a gentle way of telling Democrats that without undoing currently rigged elections, they have virtually no chance of retaking the legislature.

Democrats are pinning their comeback hopes on strong public disapproval of a legislature that has abused power and imposed a far-right agenda. A recent fundraising appeal from Sen. Josh Stein urged Democrats to kick in $25 (or more) “to begin taking back the legislature.” The stated goal is to retake “four” of the 170 House and Senate seats up for election in 2016.

At that rate, it would take until the middle of next decade for Democrats to erode the GOP’s current 75-45 House and 34-16 Senate majorities. I don’t know whether they considered the credibility or ethical implications of asking people to contribute money for a Mission Impossible, but I would like to suggest an alternative strategy for Democrats.

Rather than trying to “win the election,” Democrats should mobilize to “win the vote.” Instead of putting all their efforts into a handful of competitive districts, they should turn out voters everywhere in the state with strong candidates and vigorous campaigns in every district. No district should go without a Democratic candidate. By producing a larger overall vote than Republicans, Democrats would demonstrate the level of voter support they command across North Carolina.

That would position Democrats to shine a spotlight on the GOP’s illegitimate hold on power. In 2012, Democrats won more votes for Congress both nationally and in the state delegation, but Republicans won undeserved majorities of seats. It was a powerful political talking point then and could be again in a presidential year when higher turnout favors Democrats.

The true measure of a gerrymander is not the bizarre shape of the districts but how much it gives the party in power undeserved seats. The 2012 elections left a 13 percentage-point disparity between votes and undeserved legislative seats and a 20-point disparity in undeserved congressional seats. During five elections from 2002 through 2010 when Democrats drew the maps, the disparity averaged five points in legislative elections and two points in congressional elections.

Some might dismiss a “win the vote” strategy as irrelevant to electing more members. But it seems no less relevant than asking people to support an undertaking that hasn’t the remotest chance of succeeding. Democrats have all but conceded that retaking the legislature and Congress is unattainable. So, why not focus on the most gerrymandered districts in our history?

Certainly, “win the vote” would be an essential strategy for what should be the Democrats’ No. 1 priority to have any hope of regaining majorities in Raleigh and Washington. And that would be to mobilize energetic public support to end gerrymandering and demand meaningful redistricting reform that assures fair election outcomes and makes the politicians accountable to voters.

This story was originally published October 13, 2015 at 5:08 PM with the headline "NC Democrats need to focus on winning votes, then push redistricting reform."