UNC, Virginia, Duke face challenging regular-season finishes

The ACC basketball schedule has been a source of consternation and wonderment among the league’s coaches this season, several of whom – if you believe North Carolina coach Roy Williams – have found plenty of reasons to dislike it.

Reasons like the long gaps, at times, between games. Or the weird way in which road games and home games have been clustered. And the imbalance of it all, with some teams playing their most difficult games early and others playing them late in the season.

Williams – like Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim, who called the schedule “stupid” – recently criticized the construction of the schedule. If he were given control of college basketball, he said, the schedule would be one of the things he’d address (like, maybe, “green room” mentions during ESPN broadcasts).

And yet as weird as the schedule has been, the league office deserves some credit. Entering the final three weeks of the season, the ACC’s six primary contenders – that’d be UNC, Miami, Virginia, Notre Dame, Louisville and Duke –most have fairly balanced schedules to finish the regular season.

All except Notre Dame, which is the only team among those six whose remaining games are against teams that combined have a losing conference record. But more on that in a bit.

In looking at the remaining schedules for five of the six teams that still have a shot of finishing first in the conference, you might think the ACC planned it this way – for all of the contenders to face a difficult closing stretch. Because that’s how it has turned out, for the most part.

UNC is in the lead and controls its own destiny, but the Tar Heels’ final six games present few guarantees. Here’s a look at what the six contenders have left, which teams among those six has it the toughest and the easiest and how each team’s remaining schedule might affect the ACC race:

North Carolina (10-2)

Remaining games: vs. Duke, vs. Miami, at N.C. State, at Virginia, vs. Syracuse, at Duke

ACC record of remaining opponents: 44-29

Difficulty ranking: Most difficult

Outlook: As Williams has noted before, all of UNC’s most challenging conference games are at the end of the season. And they all seem to be during the next three weeks: two games against Duke, a road game against N.C. State, which can salvage some of its lost season with an upset win against the Tar Heels, and then a road game at Virginia. Four of UNC’s final six games – the two against Duke and ones at N.C. State and Virginia – will likely be played at peak intensity, and so that’s what makes the Tar Heels’ closing stretch the most difficult among league contenders. If the Tar Heels are for real, we’ll know it by the end of the next three weeks. A 4-2 finish, or better, would likely be cause for celebration. Such a finish would also likely secure the ACC regular-season championship, too.

Miami (9-3)

Remaining games: vs. Virginia Tech, at UNC, vs. Virginia, vs. Louisville, at Notre Dame, at Virginia Tech

ACC record of remaining opponents: 46-28

Difficulty ranking: Second-most difficult

Outlook: UNC and Miami appear on paper to have the two most difficult remaining schedules. It looks like the Tar Heels’ is slightly more challenging given that they play twice against Duke and that their lone “easy” game – against N.C. State – is a rivalry game on the road. Miami has difficult road games at UNC and at Notre Dame, but it does play Virginia Tech twice. The Hokies have been competitive this season, to be sure, but those are games the Hurricanes will be expected to win.

Virginia (9-4)

Remaining games: vs. N.C. State, at Miami, vs. UNC, at Clemson, vs. Louisville

ACC record of remaining opponents: 38-23

Difficulty ranking: Fifth-most difficult

Outlook: The Cavaliers’ remaining schedule is hardly easy, but outside of Notre Dame’s remaining games Virginia’s closing run appears to be the least daunting among the ACC’s contenders. Three of the Cavaliers’ final five games are at home – including games against UNC and Louisville – and the road games, though difficult, aren’t in arenas that present especially challenging environments. Still, Virginia is 3-4 on the road in ACC play, and it has gone on the road and lost to worse teams – Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech – than Miami and Clemson.

Notre Dame (9-4)

Remaining games: at Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest, at Florida State, vs. Miami, vs. N.C. State

ACC record of remaining opponents: 22-40

Difficulty ranking: Easiest

Outlook: Of the six teams with the best chance to win the ACC’s regular-season championship, Notre Dame faces the least challenging remaining schedule. The Fighting Irish’s most difficult remaining game, against Miami, is at home, and Notre Dame has highly winnable road games at Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. The road game at Florida State, which is fighting for its NCAA tournament life, will be tough, but the other four games shouldn’t be. Still, Notre Dame probably has to win all five of its remaining games to have a shot at finishing first – and even if it does win all five it’d likely still need some help.

Louisville (8-4)

Remaining games: vs. Syracuse, vs. Duke, at Pittsburgh, at Miami, vs. Georgia Tech, at Virginia

ACC record of remaining opponents: 42-31

Difficulty ranking: Fourth-most difficult

Outlook: The Cardinals face the greatest disadvantage of any conference team given that no matter what it does, there will be no postseason thanks to its self-imposed postseason ban. How great a story would it be, then, if Louisville somehow managed to finish in first place. It’d probably take victories in the final six games, so it’s not all that likely. But outside of the road game at Virginia there’s not a game left left in which a Cardinals’ victory would be a surprise.

Duke (8-4)

Remaining games: at UNC, at Louisville, vs. Florida State, at Pittsburgh, vs. Wake Forest, vs. UNC

Remaining games: 41-33

Difficulty ranking: Third-most difficult

Outlook: That the Blue Devils are even in this position, still with an outside shot of winning the league, speaks to their resilience and improvement. But Duke has it tougher than some due to its annual two-game arrangement with UNC – and because these two games are now coming later and later in the schedule. A victory on Wednesday night in Chapel Hill is a must to keep alive Duke’s slim first-place hopes.

This story was originally published February 14, 2016 at 6:36 PM with the headline "UNC, Virginia, Duke face challenging regular-season finishes."