In April, basketball hope springs eternal

Let last year serve as a warning before we go too far down this path, but as things stand at the end of April – and that specific timeframe is critical – next basketball season is looking pretty good for North Carolina, Duke and N.C. State.

Famous last words.

That’s also how things looked at various points last April, like after Duke reloaded with Brandon Ingram and Derryck Thornton, or before Trevor Lacey and Kyle Washington left N.C. State. Those latter two departures, combined with Terry Henderson’s season-ending injury in the first half of the first game, sunk the Wolfpack, just as Amile Jefferson’s season-ending injury in December kept Duke from achieving its full potential.

The Tar Heels were obviously just fine, coming within a shot or two of winning the national title, but even they unexpectedly lost J.P. Tokoto, which actually turned out to be addition by subtraction as roles were further defined and chemistry coalesced.

So here we are a year later, and everyone’s feeling pretty good about themselves again, even N.C. State, which missed the NCAA tournament for the first time in five seasons, thanks to the impending arrival of the “Rescue Squad” – Henderson, freshman point guard Dennis Smith and Charlotte transfer Torin Dorn. With Maverick Rowan back, that’s a pretty solid influx of perimeter talent to go with Abdul-Malik Abu and BeeJay Anya inside.

Meanwhile, as has become a Wolfpack rite of spring, N.C. State continues to scour the earth for last-minute additions, in this case another forward. There isn’t much room for error, again, but there should be enough talent to get the Wolfpack back to the tournament, if not into the upper third of the ACC, where Duke and North Carolina both expect to reside.

Duke absolutely reloads, with Jefferson back for a fifth year to join what’s either the best or second-best freshman class in the country, depending on who’s doing the rating. Its quality and composition – point guard Frank Jackson, swingman Jayson Tatum, big man Harry Giles – will inevitably invite inaccurate comparisons to the freshmen who won the national title in 2015; this is a very different group with very similar goals.

Duke also returns Grayson Allen, Matt Jones and Luke Kennard, and with the four veterans and three explosive freshmen, the Blue Devils are both experienced and talented – and as important, immune to draft manipulation with Allen committed to returning. Jefferson’s inability to make a timely recovery hurt the Blue Devils’ prospects last season, but his unexpected return could pay huge dividends this season.

It would be shocking (and ill-advised) if any of North Carolina's returning players aren’t back in the fall, even if Justin Jackson and Kennedy Meeks quite pragmatically explore the NBA draft process. Assuming everyone returns, that bequeaths a starting five of Joel Berry, who drastically improved over the course of his sophomore season and may very well be a first-team all-ACC player, with Jackson, Meeks, Isaiah Hicks and either Nate Britt or Theo Pinson.

There’s some improvement required on several fronts there – Meeks and Hicks most notably – but the Tar Heels also add a three-man freshman class that should offer immediate contributions off the bench and give Roy Williams the raw material for a nine- or 10-man rotation.

North Carolina and Duke will face stiff competition at the top of the ACC from Virginia and Louisville, while Mike Brey has proven to be an ace at reloading on the fly at Notre Dame and Virginia Tech is poised to take a massive leap forward. Then there’s the Florida contingent, with Miami and Florida State both capable of making a title run. That’s six other ACC teams with high hopes for next season, and how can you count out Syracuse?

Then again, it’s still April. Things looked a lot better last April than they did in November (for N.C. State) or January (for Duke). Enjoy this moment while it lasts, just in case it doesn’t.

This story was originally published April 22, 2016 at 2:14 PM with the headline "In April, basketball hope springs eternal."