More than 90% of NC’s counties are showing heavy community spread of COVID
Nearly two-thirds of counties in North Carolina are now experiencing critical levels of coronavirus spread, according to the state’s county alert system updated Tuesday.
The system’s color-coded map shows that 65 counties are red, indicating critical spread of the virus. Another 27 counties are orange, signifying substantial spread, meaning that only eight of the state’s 100 counties are in the lowest tier of yellow.
Gov. Roy Cooper called the trend “alarming,” and noted that in the last week the state had set a daily record of more than 8,000 cases and that more than 10% of COVID-19 tests are now turning up positive.
“This virus continues to spread quickly,” Cooper said at a press conference Tuesday. “Don’t get numb to these numbers. They have plateaued a bit over the last few weeks, but they are too high.”
December has been by far the worst month of the pandemic in North Carolina, with more than 120,000 new cases reported and more than 1,000 deaths. As of Tuesday, 488,902 people have tested positive in the state since the first case in early March, and 6,291 have died of COVID-19, according to the state Department of Health and Human Services.
Cooper cautioned residents not to travel for the upcoming holidays and invited faith leaders to speak about why it’s important for faith communities to observe the holidays safely — and ideally celebrate them virtually.
Cooper launched the county alert system on Nov. 17 to illustrate where the coronavirus is spreading the most. At the time, only 10 counties were shown in red and 31 were orange. The colors are determined by measures such as the number of new cases per capita, hospital impact, and the portion of tests that are positive.
By Dec. 4, the increasing prevalence of the virus meant that 48 were red and 34 were orange.
In the Triangle, Johnston County is red, Wake and Durham counties are orange and Orange and Chatham counties are yellow.
Executive order on mixed drinks
The press conference came a day after Cooper issued an executive order allowing bars and restaurants to sell mixed drinks for takeout or delivery. The move, which Cooper said had the support of other top elected state officials on the Council of State, was aimed at helping the industry while discouraging people from gathering in large numbers where the coronavirus can spread.
“We believe this will provide a safer situation and will also provide an important financial boost for bars and restaurants that are really hurting right now,” Cooper said Tuesday.
Cooper did not announce any changes to the other coronavirus-related restrictions on businesses and the public, which include a curfew set from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. nightly, with exceptions for work, health care and grocery shopping. The curfew went into effect Dec. 11 and is scheduled to expire Jan. 8.
During the press conference, Cooper urged people living in red or orange counties — the vast majority of state residents — to limit going out to essential activities. He said that applies to holiday activities as well.
“North Carolina needs to drive down our numbers,” he said. “To do that, we need to change our holiday plans if we haven’t already. The best and safest option is to connect virtually or by phone. If you gather in person, keep it small and outside if you can. Get a COVID test before you go. Spread out the tables and chairs.”
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized emergency use of the Pfizer vaccine against COVID-19 on Dec. 11. Last week, North Carolina received 85,800 doses to distribute to hospitals, then saw its allotment drop to 61,425 this week.
Meanwhile, the state expects to receive 175,900 doses of the Moderna vaccine, which received emergency use authorization from the FDA on Friday. Between 70,000 and 80,000 of those will go to local health departments and the 63 hospitals that did not receive any of the Pfizer vaccine last week, said Dr. Mandy Cohen, state secretary of Health and Human Services.
Increase in hospitalizations has slowed
The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 on a given day has nearly doubled since mid-November, to 3,001 on Tuesday, a new high. But the pace of growth in hospitalizations has slowed, from about 20% a week in late November and early December to about 12% per week in the last two weeks, according to a group of researchers at The Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research.
The slower upward climb buys time before North Carolina begins to reach capacity of staffed hospital beds statewide, the researchers said. They now say that at the current growth rate, the state will reach the limit of its hospital bed capacity in about two months.
The supply of staffed intensive care unit beds would likely run out sooner, in about four weeks, according to the latest estimates. That prediction is the same as the one the group made Dec. 8.
“Two weeks have passed since the last brief, so an unchanged runway projection means conditions have actually improved statewide relative to two weeks ago, though a one-month runway of staffed ICU beds statewide is still concerning,” write Mark Holmes of the UNC Gillings School of Public Health and Hilary Campbell and Aaron McKethan at the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy.
Hospitals in the Triangle say they have been able to handle the influx of COVID-19 patients so far by re-purposing rooms and tweaking schedules for surgeries and other procedures. They say the biggest challenge is keeping enough doctors, nurses and other health care workers healthy and on the job.
The dozen hospitals in the UNC Health system have more than 400 COVID-19 patients, more than at any point in the pandemic, said spokesman Alan Wolf.
“It’s putting incredible strain on our workforce, which has been working incredibly hard for many months,” Wolf wrote in an email.
The three Triangle hospitals in the Duke University Health System had 111 COVID-19 patients Tuesday morning, after a steady increase since early November, said Dr. Joseph Rogers, the chief medical officer.
“We remain concerned about the impact of the upcoming holidays on COVID transmission in our communities,” Rogers said in a written statement, “and endorse the recommendations of state and federal officials to limit holiday travel and practice measures to prevent the spread of the disease including wearing masks, hand washing, and physical distancing.”
Wolf said hospitals may get a break in the coming two weeks, because doctors generally don’t schedule as many non-emergency surgeries over the holidays. The arrival of COVID-19 vaccines is also providing hope among front-line health care workers, Wolf said.
“But the harsh reality is that this virus is still causing way too much death and misery,” Wolf wrote. “Our doctors, nurses and other providers want people to know that they need to follow the recommended safety precautions over the holidays, so that the situation doesn’t get even worse in January.”
This story was originally published December 22, 2020 at 2:22 PM with the headline "More than 90% of NC’s counties are showing heavy community spread of COVID."
