Open Source: The 25 things to watch in NC business, tech and labor in 2025

I’m Brian Gordon, tech reporter for The News & Observer, and this is Open Source, a weekly newsletter on business, labor and technology in North Carolina.

Heading into 2025, here are 25 questions in my notebook. We could know some of these answers in weeks. Others won’t become clearer until closer to Dec. 31. Some of these questions could shape the future of North Carolina and the Triangle especially, while others are more minor, if no less interesting.

Thanks for being with me as we figure them out.

Can the state’s big bets on lithium batteries withstand oversupply?

In recent years, North Carolina has awarded incentive deals to multiple lithium-ion battery producers: Forge Battery, Toyota, Dai Nippon Printing, Epsilon Advanced Materials, and Green New Energy Materials. But lithium prices have fallen amid higher supply and slowing electric vehicle demand. Some predict the global market will stay oversupplied for three more years. Where does that leave North Carolina’s lithium-ion projects?

Will IBM, Red Hat and other companies adjust their language around “diversity” hiring?

Last year, a former employee sued the Raleigh software provider Red Hat, claiming he was “a victim of Red Hat’s discriminatory employment policies.” Months earlier, a law firm headed by Trump adviser Stephen Miller filed a federal complaint against IBM, Red Hat’s parent company, over the company’s use of “a diversity modifier” in its executive incentive program. Miller has been named deputy chief of staff for policy in the incoming Trump administration.

Will SAS go public?

The private Cary software giant said 2025 will be the year for its long-awaited IPO. But SAS Institute has delayed this decision before. Plus, fewer companies are now hitting the stock market.

How much will NCInnovation scale?

North Carolina has set aside $500 million to launch NCInnovation, a nonprofit that helps UNC System researchers outside the Triangle commercialize their research. Few object to the organization’s aim, but some have raised eyebrows at the sum given. After awarding its first pilot grants, how far will NCInnovation develop in the next 12 months?

How many more Dollar Generals will open in North Carolina?

The leading U.S. dollar store chain added 41 stores statewide in 2024, continuing its steady expansion since the 2008 financial crisis. There were 1,076 Dollar Generals in North Carolina last year, the third most of any state (behind only Texas and Georgia). Will we top 1,100 this year? Or does scaling back by rival dollar chains signal North Carolinians may also be tapped out on DG?

Did Apple meet its initial hiring goals in Wake County?

Under its state incentive agreement, Apple agreed to create 126 jobs in Wake County in 2023 and 378 jobs by the end of 2024. The N.C. Department of Commerce still needs to confirm whether Apple met its first hiring milestone as the company leases space at the MetLife campus in Cary.

Will Apple give any more information about its RTP plans?

In 2024, Apple paused development on its promised $552 million campus in Research Triangle Park. This was only the second time the famously secretive company publicly commented on its Wake County plans. Will we get any more insight into Apple’s local intentions over the next 12 months?

Will Epic Games announce anything about the former Cary Towne Center?

It’s been four years since the Cary video game studio purchased the former Cary Towne Center for $95 million. It’s goal was to convert the site into a new HQ. But the area remains desolate, and Epic Games hasn’t provided updates.

When will Microsoft reveal its data center plans?

This fall, Microsoft bought 1,350 acres north of Durham in Person County. The company didn’t share why, but I’m told Microsoft will use the site to either build or power data centers. Data centers use a lot of energy and don’t employ that many people — but they are essential to powering the modern economy and our growing use of artificial intelligence.

Does the Amazon union in Garner have enough support to get an election?

Last month, Carolina Amazonians United for Solidarity and Empowerment petitioned for a union election at the massive Amazon fulfillment center south of Raleigh, contending it had collected authorization cards from at least 30% of employees. Amazon refuted this. The National Labor Relations Board will soon determine if an election can proceed.

Only one other Amazon warehouse in the U.S. is currently unionized.

Where will NC fall on the CNBC list of best business states?

It’s more than just vanity: State officials say North Carolina’s placement on the annual best business rankings helps attract companies. After finishing No. 1, No. 1 and No. 2 in the past three years, will North Carolina slip or regain ultimate bragging rights?

Will state incentive votes continue to be unanimous?

For all the partisanship in North Carolina politics, the state Commerce Department’s Economic Investment Committee has been unified when awarding incentives to support economic projects. Votes are always unanimous. No whispers of dissent behind the scenes. Will that remain so?

Does Gov. Stein like battery projects and Japanese companies as much as his predecessor?

It’s not clear how new Gov. Josh Stein will depart from former Gov. Roy Cooper on the economy. For example, Cooper adviser Lee Lilley will head the state Commerce Department under Stein. Will the new administration prioritize the same types of jobs projects? Green energy and Japanese businesses were two Cooper favorites.

Will NC tip its plans for the VinFast site in Chatham County?

The Vietnamese automaker VinFast owns around 1,765 acres southeast of Raleigh, where it’s promised to build its first North American factory. But VinFast has delayed this project until at least 2028, which gives North Carolina the option to buy the land in 2026. Would the state act if it’s lost confidence in the car company?

Will people want to live in Research Triangle Park?

Few have lived in RTP since it was founded in the late 1950s. But with work patterns shifting, local leaders want to add a residential element to the business park. Late last year, the first 400 apartments opened in Hub RTP. More mixed-use communities could follow (like at a former IBM office park).

Will Wolfspeed be bought?

The Durham semiconductor manufacturer Wolfspeed has struggled the past 24 months with slower chip demand and production delays. It has cut its workforce, fired its CEO, and seen its stock price struggle. Some believe it next could get purchased.

“When there are incredibly valuable assets, like Wolfspeed, with a stock that’s underperformed, this happens,” George Gianarikas, managing director of the investment bank Canaccord Genuity, said in May. “Because smart enough people know this is a very, very important company that has high asset value and (is) potentially interested in being acquired by other companies.”

What tariff actions will President Trump take?

And what will that mean for North Carolina businesses and consumers?

What will Trump’s return mean for the state’s battery, lithium and EV projects?

More than most states, North Carolina has landed major jobs deals through President Joe Biden’s green energy spending packages. State economic officials say companies will cite the Inflation Reduction Act when deciding to expand here. However, President-elect Donald Trump has criticized the IRA and vowed to scrap part of the law.

Will Holly Spring’s two mega life science plants open without a hitch?

Amgen and FujiFilm Diosynth Biotechnologies each plan to open drug manufacturing facilities in the Wake County town this year. Combined, the two sites promise to eventually employ more than 2,100 workers.

What does MrBeast do next?

Jimmy Donaldson of Greenville, North Carolina, is the most popular man on YouTube. His expensive, controversial reality show Beast Games is airing now on Amazon Video (to decidedly mixed reviews).

Could NC get driverless car tests?

Robotaxis are driving in the U.S., with the company Waymo leading the sector. None are in North Carolina however. General Motors’ self-driving division previously tested in Charlotte and Raleigh, but it’s since shuttered. Would Waymo (or a competitor) give the Triangle a look?

Will tourists return to Asheville?

Hurricane Helene flattened parts of Asheville, including its commercial River Arts District and Biltmore Village. How much will these neighborhoods rebound in the coming year? Tourism is lagging in Western North Carolina overall since the storm. The state has bolstered its marketing efforts to get visitors back.

My friend who sells art in downtown Asheville recently told me foot traffic was down this fall. But she said local residents have been visiting downtown more often to make up for the tourism slowdown.

Will Red Hat keep delivering for parent IBM?

One of the fastest-growing divisions within IBM, Raleigh’s Red Hat has made double-digit revenue leaps most quarters since getting purchased in 2019. Keeping up that pace only gets more difficult.

Will biotech funding rebound?

The pandemic era was a boom time for life science startup fundraising. But the years since have been particularly hard for companies in the sector. In 2023, Durham’s AgBiome closed citing “an extremely challenging VC and private equity market.” Will recent interest rate drops return some of the enthusiasm?

Will the two enormous biotech hubs in Morrisville find tenants?

Spark Life Science and Pathway Triangle stand across the street from each other in Western Wake County. They both promise to offer more than 1 million square feet of biomedical lab and office space, some of which is already available. But both still await tenants.

Clearing my cache

• The communications platform LiveSwitch bought the Highline building in downtown Apex for its new headquarters.
• Workers at two North Carolina Starbucks, including one in the Triangle, voted to unionize last month. There are now five unionized Starbucks locations statewide.
• Momentum is building to get workers back in the office. Here’s what 10 major Triangle employers are doing.
• The Chinese tech conglomerate Tencent removed two board members from Cary’s Epic Games following U.S. Department of Justice scrutiny. Tencent is a minority owner of Epic Games and the parent company to the rival video game studio Riot Games.
• Check out North Carolina’s five largest job announcements and layoffs of 2024.

National Tech Happenings

• A US government agency that followed foreign disinformation closed last week after Congress didn’t extend its funding. Republicans had accused the Global Engagement Center of promoting censorship while supporters said it helped combat foreign disinformation threats.

• The National Labor Relations Board is poised to switch to a Republican majority after the U.S. Senate blocked NLRB Chairman Lauren McFerran’s renomination, paving the way for another Trump appointee to flip the board.

• Facebook parent company Meta named Republican Joel Kaplan, who served as White House deputy chief of staff under President George W. Bush, to lead its global policy team. Kaplan has previously criticized Meta’s limits on political speech. The move comes as major tech companies seem to court favor with the incoming Trump administration.

• On Thursday, the Sixth Circuit Court struck down the Biden administration’s attempt to revive net neutrality laws, with the all-Republican panel arguing the Federal Communication Commission wasn’t authorized to set this regulation. The judges highlighted the pivotal 2024 Supreme Court decision ending the Chevron deference, which gave federal agencies deference on setting rules.

Thanks for reading!

This story was originally published January 3, 2025 at 6:00 AM.

Brian Gordon

The News & Observer

919-861-1238

Brian Gordon is the Business & Technology reporter for The News & Observer and The Herald-Sun. He writes about jobs, startups and big tech developments unique to the North Carolina Triangle. Brian previously worked as a senior statewide reporter for the USA Today Network. Please contact him via email, phone, or Signal at 919-861-1238.