More than 200,000 young people have already voted in NC, on pace to surpass 2016 total
North Carolina is among the key states leading the country in voter turnout among young people.
Across the state, 204,986 people ages 18-29 cast their early ballots as of Oct. 21, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, or CIRCLE, a non-partisan research organization tracking young-voter data.
That puts North Carolina at No. 3, behind Texas and Florida, among 14 key states that could determine the outcome of the presidency and control of the U.S. Senate.
In 2016, 25,150 young voters had cast ballots at the same point in the election, the group’s data show.
That year, early voting started on Oct. 20, but it started Oct. 15 in 2020, meaning the number of young voters CIRCLE says have cast their ballots this year reflect five more days of early voting than 2016’s numbers.
In 2016, more than 714,000 people ages 18-29 in the state ended up voting in the election won by President Donald Trump.
Record-breaking numbers of Americans overall are voting early this year, partly because of the coronavirus pandemic. More than 60.9 million voters have cast ballots as of Monday, eight days before Election Day, according to the U.S. Elections Project. That’s about 44% of all ballots cast in 2016.
Nationally, more than 3 million voters ages 18-29 cast their ballots as of Oct. 21 this year, according to CIRCLE. More than 2 million of those voters live in key states, including North Carolina.
Young voters’ influence
Young voters could play a critical role in North Carolina, a battleground state with 15 electoral votes that could determine whether Trump or Democratic challenger Joe Biden wins the presidency.
Poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight ranked North Carolina as the fifth most likely to tip the election in favor of one candidate or the other, at a 6.1% chance.
Meanwhile, the N.C. race between Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and challenger Cal Cunningham could determine which party will hold the majority in the U.S. Senate.
CIRCLE ranked North Carolina among the top five states where young people can influence the outcome of the presidential and Senate elections — No. 2 for the presidency and No. 4 for the Senate.
The 18-29 age group accounts for a higher percentage of the electorate in North Carolina than the nation overall, according to CIRCLE. In 2016, 45% of young North Carolinians voted, compared to 38% of all young Americans.
However, 55% of young eligible voters didn’t cast ballots in North Carolina, which favored Trump over Hillary Clinton, data show.
“These non-voting, eligible youth make up 5 times more potential votes than the margin of victory in the 2016 presidential election in North Carolina,” CIRCLE says. “That same block of potential young voters who did not cast a ballot in 2016 is 19 times larger than the margin of victory when Tillis won his seat in 2014.”
Who do young voters favor?
In 2016, young North Carolina voters favored Democrats more than the overall electorate.
While 57% of young North Carolina voters voted Democrat and 35% voted Republican in the presidential race, the vote was split 46% to 50% overall, respectively.
In the Senate race, 56% of young voters picked Democratic challenger Deborah Ross and 40% picked Republican incumbent Sen. Richard Burr. That compared to a 45% to 51% divide overall.
The largest margin was in the governor’s race, in which 63% of young voters picked Democrat Roy Cooper and 35% picked Republican Pat McCrory. Overall, the vote was even at 49%.
This election, polling shows Trump trailing Biden nationally among young voters.
In poll conducted in late September and early October by the Institute of Politics at Harvard, 63% of likely voters under age 30 said they plan to vote for Biden and 25% said they planned to vote for Trump at a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 percentage points.
Similarly, a Forbes “Under 30 Voter Survey” in September found 57% of likely young voters favor Biden. A Pew Research Center report this month found young voters favor Biden by 30 percentage points.
“Younger voters are by far the most supportive of Biden when comparing voter preferences by age,” Pew said.
This story was originally published October 26, 2020 at 1:58 PM.
