Voters weigh Tillis’ support for Trump, Cunningham sexting in tight Senate race: poll
U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis’ support for President Donald Trump is more important to their vote than Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham’s sexting scandal, North Carolina residents say in a new poll that found a tight race between the two candidates.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll of 706 North Carolina registered voters and 646 likely voters from Oct. 12-17 found Cunningham leading Tillis 49% to 47% among likely voters and 49% to 46% among registered voters — in line with other recent polling showing a competitive race.
The poll was conducted via phone interviews and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
An East Carolina University Center for Survey Research poll of 1,155 likely voters in North Carolina shows Cunningham leading Tillis 48% to 47% with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Other polls conducted in October and listed on poll analysis website FiveThirtyEight show Cunningham up by similarly narrow margins. But a few show a stronger lead — including two with him up by 10 percentage points. Overall, FiveThirtyEight gives Cunningham a 66% chance and Tillis a 34% chance of winning the seat.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll, released Tuesday, found many voters were “willing to set aside” Cunningham’s “marital infidelity.”
Cunningham admitted he exchanged sexual text messages with a California public relations strategist, Arlene Guzman Todd, who has “acknowledged one intimate encounter” with him, The News & Observer reported.
The candidate previously said he’s “taken responsibility for the hurt I’ve caused in my personal life,” per The N&O.
“I’ve apologized for it,” he said. “I’ve said what I’m going to say about it.”
When asked “how important this is to your vote for U.S. Senate” 26% of registered voters said Cunningham’s “extramarital affair” was “very” or “extremely” important while 21% said it was “somewhat” and 50% said it was “not so” important. Meanwhile, 57% said Tillis’ support for Trump was “extremely” or “very” important while 18% said it was “somewhat” and 23% said it was “not so” important.
Among likely voters, 27% called Cunningham’s scandal “extremely or very” important while 59% said the same of Tillis’ Trump support, the poll says.
Of registered voters surveyed, 80% said whether Republicans or Democrats control the Senate is “extremely” or “very” important. Eighty-five percent of likely voters said the same.
“Among those who call Cunningham’s infidelity highly important, 80 percent back Tillis, while the Republican’s support dives to 33 percent among likely voters who call this less important or unimportant,” the poll says. “There are far closer divisions among those who focused on Tillis’ support for Trump (52-46 percent, Tillis-Cunningham) and on control of the Senate (48-48 percent).”
Earlier polling showed Cunningham’s favorability rating down following the scandal but showed his lead over Tillis remaining stable, The N&O reports.
The race between Tillis and Cunningham is considered a key contest that could determine which party has control of the Senate. Democrats need to flip three or four seats to win the now Republican-controlled Senate, CNN reports — depending on if they win the presidency as the vice president would break a tie.
Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading Trump in the presidential race by an average of 10.3 percentage points nationally, according to FiveThirtyEight.
But the race is tighter in North Carolina, which is considered a key battleground state for the presidency with 15 electoral votes up for grabs.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll found Biden leading Trump 49% to 48% among likely voters and 48% to 46% among registered voters. The ECU poll found Biden leading Trump 50% to 47%.
The FiveThirtyEight average shows Biden leading by 3.1 percentage points in North Carolina.
Trump and his campaign have made several visits to the Tar Heel state in the weeks leading up to the election. Biden made a trip to Durham on Sunday after another to the state in late September. Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris will visit Charlotte and Asheville on Wednesday.
North Carolina in 2016 went for Trump, who got 49.8% of the state’s vote compared to former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s 46.2%, according to Ballotpedia. It went for former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in 2012 and for then-candidate Barack Obama, a Democrat, in 2008.
