Just 20% of voters cast a ballot in NC’s primary elections — and that’s an improvement
With several members of Congress not seeking reelection this year, North Carolina voters were more engaged in last month’s primary election for the 2022 midterms than they have been in other recent midterm primaries.
But that’s not a high bar to clear.
Even with this year’s heightened interest, more than 80% of people who could’ve voted in the primary did not cast a ballot.
The 19.6% voter turnout in the May 17 primary was notably higher than in the last primary election, in 2018, when only 13.8% of eligible voters participated. Turnout was 15.8% in 2014.
Midterm primaries tend to have lower turnout than primaries during presidential election years, since there’s no presidential candidates on the ballot in a midterm.
In 2020, for example, when North Carolina voters were helping decide whether the Democratic Party should nominate Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Michael Bloomberg or a number of other candidates, the turnout was over 31%. And in 2016, when both the Republican and Democratic parties had contested presidential primaries, the turnout was even higher.
But even though midterms have other important elections like for Congress and the state legislature, turnout tends to lag.
Breaking down the numbers
An analysis of the data by The News & Observer shows that turnout was up this year, compared to 2018, across nearly every age, race, ethnicity and political party.
As is typically the case, older voters dominated the election. Senior citizens cast nearly triple the amount of ballots as millennials and Gen Z voters combined, even though millennials are now the largest generation. Around 212,000 voters age 40 and under participated in the primary, compared to 593,000 voters age 66 and older.
Turnout increased for Democrats, Republicans and unafilliated voters. White voter turnout increased from 16% to 24% from 2018 to 2022; Black voter turnout went from 15% to 19%; Asian voter turnout went from 5% to 8%; and Hispanic voter turnout went from 4% to 6%.
The only outlier was in Native American communities, where voter turnout dropped to 14%, down from 21% in 2018.
That might be explained by 2018’s highly competitive 9th Congressional District. The district at the time included Robeson County, home to the Lumbee Tribe, as well as several surrounding counties that also have relatively high numbers of Native American voters. This year, Robeson County is in a different congressional district that’s expected to be less competitive in November.
Why primaries matter
Primaries are important, particularly for Congress and the General Assembly, since in North Carolina most elections are really decided in the primary.
That’s not true for statewide races, like the upcoming U.S. Senate election, since North Carolina remains an evenly divided state overall. But when districts are involved — like for the 14 U.S. House of Representatives seats on the ballot this year, or the 170 state legislative races — very few will likely be competitive in this November’s general election.
Most districts have been drawn to be either deep blue or deep red, the N&O reported earlier this year during the latest round of redistricting. Only a small number of tossup seats will truly be in question in November.
So with general election outcomes largely predetermined via redistricting, the primaries afforded voters the chance to decide which direction their party should move in.
On the Democratic side voters tended to reject the more progressive candidates. In the congressional district centered around Chapel Hill and Durham, establishment favorite Valerie Foushee trounced Nida Allam, who had been endorsed by Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, in their race for an open seat in Congress to replace the retiring Democratic Rep. David Price.
And in the northeastern part of the state, Don Davis, a moderate Democrat who sometime votes with Republicans in his current role in the N.C. Senate, handily defeated a challenger to his left, Erica Smith. That was another open seat, with no incumbent due to the retirement of Democratic Rep. GK Butterfield.
While Democrats were picking candidates closer to the center, Republican primary voters veered to the right.
In the contest to replace the retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr on the ballot this November, GOP voters overwhelmingly rejected former Gov. Pat McCrory in favor of Rep. Ted Budd, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. And to take on Davis in the northeastern district — which could be a competitive race this fall — Republican voters picked far-right Sandy Smith, who has pushed impossible conspiracy theories about elections, over the more establishment candidate, Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson.
A notable exception was in the far western part of the state, where conservative firebrand Rep. Madison Cawthorn went down in a rare instance of an incumbent losing a primary.
Trump stuck with Cawthorn, urging voters to give him another chance despite his long history of actions and comments that riled many on both sides of the aisle. But the party establishment in the state coalesced around Chuck Edwards, a state senator from Hendersonville, who narrowly unseated Cawthorn in an eight-person race. Edwards won just over 33% of the vote, compared to just under 32% for Cawthorn.
For more North Carolina government and politics news, listen to the Under the Dome politics podcast from The News & Observer and the NC Insider. You can find it at https://campsite.bio/underthedome or wherever you get your podcasts.
This story was originally published June 17, 2022 at 6:00 AM.
