Trump makes endorsement in Berger-Page race. How much does it matter?

Hello! I’m Danielle Battaglia with this week’s edition of Under the Dome focused on the Trump administration.

President Donald Trump weighed in on a state-level election in North Carolina Wednesday night, endorsing Senate leader Phil Berger over Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page in a race for Berger’s seat.

And Trump tried to entice Page to drop out of the race by offering him a job in Washington.

I started my career back in 2011 covering Rockingham County and I always believed Page was caught between his love for Rockingham County and his aspirations for a more high-profile position. So I was quite interested to see how Page would navigate this public call to action to drop out of the race. He immediately announced he would not be moved.

Republican political consultant Jonathan Felts posted on X, “I’m old ... enough to remember when (former Gov. Pat McCrory, former Rep. Mark Walker and) similarly-minded folks would plead the case that Trump’s endorsement doesn’t matter. (Sam Page) is Dust in the Wind.”

Felts runs the campaigns for people like Sen. Ted Budd and Rep. Addison McDowell, two people who benefitted from an endorsement by Trump.

It was Budd who was trailing both McCrory and Walker in 2021 when Trump surprised everyone, including Budd’s team, by announcing his endorsement of Budd for Senate during a state Republican Party convention, which turned the race around and led to Budd’s win.

McDowell was nearly unheard of in 2023 when Trump announced McDowell would run for Congress with his endorsement, jumping him ahead of several popular candidates.

So I called Felts and asked him what he thinks about a Trump endorsement in 2026.

“Trump’s endorsement remains the most important endorsement you can get in the Republican primary, with the caveat that you also have to run a strong campaign,” Felts said.

Felts added that that is not unique to Trump; if you don’t have a strong candidate, you’re not guaranteed anything.

I also took the question to Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper.

“You want it in a Republican primary,” Cooper said. “I think the evidence is pretty clear that it helps in Republican primaries. In a general election, I think the evidence shows, it’s pretty close to a wash, but it’s not going to hurt you.”

“Does it mean you’ll win? Definitely not,” he added.

And not getting it, he added, doesn’t mean “you need to shut up your campaign headquarters and call it a day.”

That got me looking at who from North Carolina has received a Trump endorsement.

Here’s a list of candidates who Trump endorsed in North Carolina and who went on to win:

• Sen. Ted Budd (2018 general, 2022 primary, general)
• Sen. Thom Tillis (2020 primary, general)
• Rep. Pat Harrigan (2024 general)
• Rep. Brad Knott (2024 primary, general)
• Rep. Tim Moore (2024 primary, general)
• Rep. Virginia Foxx (2022 primary, general, 2024 primary)
• Rep. Addison McDowell (2024 primary, general)
• Rep. Mark Harris (2024 general)
• Rep. Richard Hudson (2020 general, 2022 primary, general; 2024 primary, general)
• Rep. Patrick McHenry (2020 primary, general; 2022 primary, general)
• Rep. Greg Murphy (2019 general, 2022 primary, general)
• Rep. David Rouzer (2022 primary, general)
• Former Rep. Dan Bishop (2019 primary, general; 2020 general, 2022 primary, general)
• Former Rep. Madison Cawthorn (2020 general)

And here’s who lost:

• Former Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson for governor (2024 - won primary before losing in general.)
• Laurie Buckhout for Congress (2024 general)
• Sandy Smith for Congress (2022 general)
• Cawthorn (2022 primary)
• Bo Hines for Congress (2022 - won primary before losing in general.)
• Lynda Bennett for Congress (2020 primary runoff)
• Former Lt. Gov. Dan Forest for governor (2020 general)
• Harris for Congress (2018 general — Harris led before the results were set aside in favor of a new election)

Cawthorn and Bennett are the only two who lost primaries after Trump endorsed them.

Here are his endorsements for 2026, with the results still pending:

• Michael Whatley for U.S. Senate
• Harrigan
• Foxx
• Rep. Chuck Edwards
• Moore
• Knott
• Murphy
• Hudson
• McDowell
• Rouzer
• Harris
• Berger

What else we worked on:

• A Raleigh man threatened to kill President Biden. How long he’ll spend in prison
• Trump endorses NC Senate leader Phil Berger in primary, offers challenger a job
• Conservative super PAC backs Whatley as ‘real world’ Senate candidate in new ad
• National Democrats think they have a shot at flipping these two NC districts in 2026
• Durham Commissioner Nida Allam to challenge Foushee in Democratic primary rematch
• Wake schools warn more budget cuts may be coming due to uncertainty over funding
• ICE arrests of people with no criminal records rose in NC before Border Patrol surge
• Man accused of ramming ICE agents’ cars in Morrisville was not intended target
• NC leads nation in shrinking environmental agency, leaving water, land unprotected
• Federal recognition for NC’s Lumbee Tribe included in congressional defense bill

Thanks for reading and for supporting local journalism.

Be kind to each other.

If you have any feedback or tips for this edition of the newsletter, feel free to reach out to me directly at dbattaglia@mcclatchydc.com.

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Danielle Battaglia

McClatchy DC

Danielle Battaglia is the congressional impact reporter for The News & Observer and The Charlotte Observer, leading coverage of the impact of North Carolina’s congressional delegation and the White House. Her career has spanned three North Carolina newsrooms where she has covered crime, courts and local, state and national politics. She has won two McClatchy President’s awards and numerous national and state awards for her work.