Tropical Storm Rafael in the Gulf may be a hurricane by mid-week. Could NC be impacted?
Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Gulf of Mexico Monday, Nov. 4, and is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday that could threaten the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Jamaica and the Florida Keys on its way toward the Gulf Coast, forecasters say.
Where is Tropical Storm Rafael?
The National Hurricane Center said Monday the low-pressure system forecasters had been watching for more than a week had developed a well-defined center and was producing organized deep convection, meeting the criteria of a tropical depression.
The system became Tropical Storm Rafael Monday afternoon, meaning it has sustained winds of 39 mph or more.
Where is Rafael headed?
The storm was over the south-central Caribbean south of Jamaica at mid-day Nov. 4 and was expected to make a turn toward the northwest later in the day. It’s expected to stay on a northwesterly track for the next few days.
Tropical Storm Rafael will pass near Jamaica Monday night, the Hurricane Center said, near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday and toward western Cuba on Wednesday, possibly strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane as it goes.
Forecasters say the system will bring wind and heavy rain across portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and portions of Cuba, through mid-week. Flooding and mudslides are possible in these areas.
Heavy rainfall also will spread north into Florida and in Gulf states mid- to late week, the Hurricane Center said.
What will happen once Rafael reaches the central Gulf?
The storm should reach the central Gulf late Wednesday or Thursday, forecasters say. There, it will encounter vertical wind shear, drier air and slightly cooler waters, which should all help to weaken it.
International forecasts for what the storm will do then vary, but most show it taking a turn toward the north and coming ashore by the weekend in Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama. From there, models show it either dissipating or tracking north through the Mississippi Valley into Tennessee or Kentucky.
Will Rafael affect North Carolina?
Even if it tracks far inland through the Mississippi Valley, forecasts current as of Nov. 4 indicate the system should stay out of North Carolina.
This story was originally published November 4, 2024 at 1:24 PM.
