Tropical depression will likely develop this week. What it could mean for NC
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- An Atlantic disturbance has an 80% chance to form a tropical depression by late this week.
- The disturbance poses no immediate threat to North Carolina.
- Tropical Storm Gabrielle would be 2025's seventh named storm if formation occurs.
Update: Find our latest story on Gabrielle here.
Meteorologists are tracking a disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean with a high chance of developing this week.
As of 8 a.m. Monday, Sept. 15, the wave was over the central tropical Atlantic and expected to develop into a tropical depression by the middle or end of the week, according to the National Hurricane Center. A tropical depression is a cyclone that has maximum sustained surface wind speeds of 38 mph or less.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle
The disturbance has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days. If it does eventually form a tropical storm, it would be named Gabrielle, the seventh named Atlantic storm of the 2025 hurricane season.
The disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
As of Monday, the disturbance was producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms but was too far away from the U.S. coast to pose any immediate threat to North Carolina.
The National Hurricane Center will continue to track the disturbance throughout the week. Any local impacts will be shared by National Weather Service forecast offices, such as those in Newport/Morehead City, Wilmington and Raleigh.
Meanwhile, NWS meteorologists in Raleigh are forecasting periods of potentially heavy rain for central North Carolina through Wednesday, Sept. 17. Charlotte residents could see isolated afternoon and evening showers Monday.
Hurricane season 2025
So far, there have been six named Atlantic storms during the 2025 hurricane season, which began June 1 and continues through Nov. 30.
The peak of the hurricane season has passed, but powerful storms could still form. Last year, both Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton occurred after the Sept. 10 peak.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration adjusted its predictions for tropical activity in early August. While meteorologists are still expecting above-normal activity, the forecast now includes an expected 13-18 named storms, down from 13-19. Of those, between five and nine could be hurricanes, including between two and five major hurricanes.
Erin was the first major hurricane of the 2025 season. While it did not make direct landfall in North Carolina, it brought dangerous surf, rip currents and flooding to the coast. Multiple Outer Banks communities evacuated ahead of the storm, and Gov. Josh Stein declared a state of emergency for the whole state to help with preparation and recovery efforts.
This story was originally published September 15, 2025 at 11:00 AM.
