Remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur could bring heavy rain, storms to central NC
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- Remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur may bring about an inch of rain to North Carolina.
- NHC gives a 10% chance of subtropical or tropical formation in the Atlantic.
- NOAA forecasts a 55% chance of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
North Carolina could see about an inch of rain from the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur on the evening of Thursday, June 18, and into Friday, June 19. And there’s a small chance the system could re-form off the coast.
Arthur, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed in the Gulf of Mexico, dissipating quickly on Wednesday, June 17, but still bringing a risk of life-threatening flooding and rainfall to some southern states.
Forecasters with the Weather Prediction Center issued a “very rare” high risk of flooding rain for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, according to The New York Times.
Rain forecast
Central North Carolina could see widespread rain showers and storms Thursday evening and overnight into Friday thanks, in part, to the remnants of Arthur and a cold front colliding.
Parts of the Triangle and central North Carolina could see rainfall up 1.5 inches through midday Friday, according to a Thursday afternoon National Weather Service briefing.
“Isolated rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour may occur, which could lead to localized minor flooding, especially in urban areas,” according to the briefing.
Some of those storms could produce damaging wind gusts over 60 miles per hour, with the possibility of isolated tornadoes later in the night. People should have multiple ways to receive weather alerts.
“Otherwise we dry out, and definitely by this weekend,” according to the National Weather Service’s Thursday weather briefing. “Both Saturday and Sunday looks mainly dry.”
Those remnants have a 10% chance of forming a subtropical or tropical development on Friday or Saturday off the North Carolina coast in the Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for widespread and life-threatening flash flooding is likely across portions of the southeast United States during the next day or two,” according to the hurricane center.
2026 Hurricane Season Outlook
The National Weather Service is predicting a below-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean this year, partly due to warming waters from an expected strong El Niño.
This hurricane season, which began June 1 and continues through Nov. 30, has a 55% chance of being below normal, 35% of being near-normal and 10% change of an above-normal season, according to the official forecast released Thursday, May 21, during a press conference.
The National Weather Service is predicting a below-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean this year, partly due to warming waters from an expected strong El Niño.
This hurricane season, which began June 1 and continues through Nov. 30, has a 55% chance of being below normal, 35% of being near-normal and 10% change of an above-normal season, according to the official forecast released Thursday, May 21, during a press conference.
The official forecast predicts:
- Eight to 14 names storms with winds of 39 mph or higher
- Three to six hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher
- One to three major hurricanes, a category 3, 4 or 5 storm with winds 111 mph or higher
Tropical storm vs hurricane
These storms are categorized based on wind speed, which helps predict potential property damage, The News & Observer previously reported. Danger from other hazards like flooding, storm surges and tornadoes are not factored into the storm’s categorization.
According to the National Hurricane Center, storms are classified as:
- Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less.
- Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph.
- Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones.
- Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Portions of this story were previously published in The News & Observer.
This story was originally published June 18, 2026 at 2:05 PM.
