Democrats’ polling advantage puts more NC districts in play for 2026 | Opinion
In North Carolina, truly competitive elections for Congress and the General Assembly can be few and far between. With gerrymandered maps, the vast majority of election outcomes are virtually preordained.
But 2026 is shaping up to be a strong year for Democrats, and there could be more competitive districts than usual in November’s midterms if current trends hold. According to a June poll, Democrats have a 6-point advantage on a generic ballot for the state House and an 8-point advantage on a generic ballot for the state Senate. Democrats have an 8-point lead on a generic ballot for congressional races as well.
Of course, generic ballots aren’t a perfect predictor of actual election outcomes, as results can be influenced by the dynamics of a specific race, such as voter turnout or the quality of a particular candidate or campaign. But it does indicate which direction the political winds are blowing and how strong those winds might be. If Democrats can maintain that edge, more districts across North Carolina could be in play.
N.C. House
For the North Carolina House, a D+6 generic ballot could put more than 20 additional districts in play. Democrats would need to pick up a dozen seats to win a majority, so it’s not completely out of the question. That’s likely why national Democrats have already singled out roughly a dozen state House races as competitive and worthy of additional party resources.
But there are opportunities elsewhere on the map, too, especially in districts where Democrats have fielded strong candidates. That includes House District 64 in Alamance County, which is an R+2 district, according to the John Locke Foundation’s Civitas Partisan Index. In that district, incumbent Republican Dennis Riddell faces a challenge from LeVon Barnes, a veteran educator and basketball coach. Democrats also have a strong chance to win back House District 73 in Cabarrus County, which they flipped in 2022 but lost in 2024 after another round of gerrymandering. House District 20 in New Hanover County, which is R+4, could also get interesting, as there’s no incumbent in that race, and two local elected officials are vying for the seat.
N.C. Senate
Even with a D+8 generic ballot, the state Senate may not have a lot of competitive races, because the districts are larger and therefore less responsive to shifts in public opinion. Most districts give Democrats or Republicans a double-digit edge. There’s not really a realistic scenario in which Democrats win a majority here, but picking up just one seat could break the supermajority that Republicans have had in the Senate since 2022.
The Civitas Partisan Index ranks just six Senate districts as “toss-up” or “lean Republican,” meaning that they have a score of R+5 or below. One of those districts is already occupied by a Democrat, and national Democrats have singled out two others. But there are a few other districts classified as “likely Republican” that could be more competitive than expected if Democrats have a sizable advantage on the generic ballot. One example is Senate District 1, which lies in the northeastern part of the state. It has an R+6 rating, but the Republican incumbent is not running, giving Democrats an opening for a strong performance. A neighboring district, Senate District 2, is also R+6, and District 3 is R+8.
Congress
North Carolina’s congressional maps are deeply gerrymandered, and even more so this year as Republicans recently drew themselves an additional district at the behest of Donald Trump. But that district they drew for themselves may not be a guarantee, especially if Democrats overperform.
The Cook Partisan Voting Index puts the 1st Congressional District at R+5, or lean Republican. This is also an example of a race where the underlying dynamics may benefit Democrats: Don Davis is the incumbent, and he’s a moderate Democrat with a bipartisan streak. Democrats are also getting their hopes up in the 11th Congressional District, especially as incumbent Chuck Edwards has come under scrutiny for sexual misconduct allegations.
But the real long shot for Democrats would be in NC-03, which is an R+6 district, according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index. That district is currently represented by incumbent Greg Murphy, a Republican. Murphy has cruised to reelection every year by double-digit margins, but his district became a little bit less red in order to make the 1st District redder. National Democrats are funneling resources into this race, and they may perform better than usual, but a victory will be extremely difficult.
Deputy Opinion Editor Paige Masten covers politics and the 2026 elections for The Charlotte Observer and The News & Observer.
This story was originally published June 28, 2026 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Democrats’ polling advantage puts more NC districts in play for 2026 | Opinion."
