5 reasons to be optimistic about UNC football. And 5 reasons to worry.

North Carolina’s football season starts Saturday. The Tar Heels have a lot to prove after finishing with a disappointing 3-9 record last year.

Hobbled by injuries last season, they hope they can get back to their winning ways after finishing 11-3 and 8-5 in 2015 and 2016. But the start to the new season has not been smooth.

Here are five reasons to be optimistic UNC will be among the top teams in the ACC Coastal Division and five reasons to be pessimistic it won’t:

Reasons for optimism

1. UNC’s injury-riddled season was rare

It’s hard to imagine UNC having as many players go down this year as it did last year. The Tar Heels had to dig deep to find players who weren’t hurt. The injuries included linebacker Andre Smith, wide receiver Austin Proehl, cornerback Corey Bell Jr., and defensive end Tyler Powell, among others.

This year, UNC starts the season healthier than it was when it concluded the 2017 season.

UNC could be dealing with a few injuries heading into its first game against Cal. UNC coach Larry Fedora would neither confirm nor deny whether sophomore running back Michael Carter and junior defensive tackle Aaron Crawford were injured.

But the majority of its key players appear to be ready to go.

UNC’s training staff put in a lot of work in the offseason to understand what went wrong last year, and what caused them to have so many players go down. They conducted a study and are working with the exercise and sports science department to figure out how to prevent injuries.

2. Returnees on defense

UNC will return a lot of players who played significant minutes and made contributions to the team last season. Part of that is because of all those injuries.

UNC has defensive tackles Crawford and Jalen Dalton and defensive ends Malik Carney and Tomon Fox coming back. The latter two players will be suspended for four games this season due to their involvement in the sales of team-issued sneakers. Their suspensions will be staggered since they play the same position.

UNC also returns linebackers Jonathan Smith and Cole Holcomb, who is returning from an injury, and a few players in the secondary, including cornerback K.J. Sails and safeties Myles Dorn and J.K. Britt.

“We’ve got a fast defense from our D-Line, linebackers and secondary,” Britt said. “So I think we’re going to be able to have a really good defense this year.”

3. Depth at running back

Running back is probably UNC’s deepest position. Not only do the Tar Heels return two backs who played significant minutes last season — Jordon Brown and Michael Carter — they added an Ohio State transfer, Antonio Williams, who UNC coach Larry Fedora has said good things about.

Fedora also likes what he has in true freshman Javonte Williams.

Fedora would not say whether Carter was dealing with an injury but seemed to indicate that he would miss at least the first game of the season.

Fedora said he would likely utilize three running backs by committee against Cal. When asked which running backs he would likely use, Fedora said Brown, Antonio Williams and Javonte Williams.

4. QB Nathan Elliott appears confident

Confidence was what helped Nathan Elliott pull out two victories, including one against Pitt, at the end of last season. He appears confident again this summer. Knowing that you’ll be the starter for at least four weeks helps.

Elliott was in a quarterback battle with Chazz Surratt in the spring, but Surratt was suspended earlier this month for four games after he sold team-issued sneakers. Some players have raved about Elliott’s leadership, a trait Fedora had said he was looking for in his quarterback.

If Elliott can be good this year, so can UNC.

“I’ve been waiting for this moment my whole life,” Elliott said. “I’ve been preparing for this moment my whole life and it’s finally here. So I’ve got to make the most of it.”

5. They have a fairly favorable schedule

Five out of six of UNC’s away games appear winnable. UNC’s toughest games, with the exception of No. 8 Miami on the road on Sept. 27, will come at home. UNC plays N.C. State, No. 20 Virginia Tech, No. 21 Central Florida and Georgia Tech. It also plays Western Carolina at home, which should be an automatic win.

On Sept. 1, UNC plays Cal, which won 35-30 in Chapel Hill last season. UNC plays East Carolina on Sept. 8 in Greenville. The Pirates have finished 3-9 in each of the last two seasons.

On Oct. 20, UNC plays at Syracuse. The Orange finished at the bottom of the Atlantic Division last season with a 4-8 overall record. On Oct. 27, UNC plays at Virginia. UVa. is expected to struggle this season, too. The Cavaliers lost key players on both offense and defense.

On Nov. 10, UNC plays at Duke. Anything can happen in a rivalry game. Duke beat UNC last season 27-17.

Reasons for pessimism

1. 13 players will miss at least one game. Some four.

Thirteen players will be suspended this season for their roles in selling team-issued sneakers. That will particularly affect depth at some positions, like offensive line, defensive line and the defensive backs. It also disrupts the chemistry.

The suspended players can practice. However, it won’t be the same as playing in a game.

2. Offensive line is young and inexperienced

UNC returns only one starting offensive lineman, Charlie Heck. All the other offensive lineman are new. They haven’t played in a game together, so they’ll have to develop chemistry.

The line must grow up fast.

“Everybody has the talent, but then you’ve got to be able to master the skills and craft it every day,” Heck said of the young offensive lineman.

3. Quarterback play

Last season, Elliott had a tendency to be inaccurate at times. So did Surratt. Elliott’s completion percentage was 51.4 percent last season, which won’t be good enough to win a lot of games.

Fedora has said Elliott has improved. He has to show that he can also throw the deep pass accurately.

If Elliott doesn’t perform well in the first four games, there isn’t another proven quarterback on the roster to fall back on.

4. Consistent weapon outside of Anthony Ratliff-Williams?

Anthony Ratliff-Williams showed that he can be a playmaker for the Tar Heels this season. But all of the other receivers are unproven.

Dazz Newsome had some good moments as a true freshman last year, but the Tar Heels will need some consistency from other receivers. When teams figure out that Ratliff-Williams is as talented as he is, they will try to double team him. That’s when other players will have to step up.

“I love everything that Dazz Newsome is doing this camp,” Fedora said, when asked who he liked outside of Ratliff-Williams at wide receiver.” I love what Thomas Jackson is doing. Beau Corrales had a great camp. I mean he really has. That guy has come a long way since his freshman year. And then Dyami (Brown). For a true freshman, that kid is going to help us this year, and he’s made a lot of plays for us in the Fall.”

5. This team hasn’t quite figured out how to close games

One of the keys for UNC this offseason has been trying to figure out how to finish games. It was an issue last season.

With less than three minutes left, and the ball in Miami’s territory, UNC had a legitimate shot to score the game-winning touchdown. But it fumbled the football back to Miami.

Against UVa., UNC had the ball in the Cavaliers’ territory, down by six, with less than two minutes left. But on fourth down UNC quarterback Brandon Harris was sacked and the Tar Heels lost.

UNC also led Louisville by one point after three quarters, but lost that game by 12 points.

This story was originally published August 28, 2018 at 10:32 AM.