NCAA bracket projection: Will the ACC get eight teams in? How SMU could make it

The ACC team with the most at stake Saturday is one that hasn’t played since the conference tournament’s second round.

While there is a seven-team contingent of ACC schools safely inside the field (Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State and Virginia) and quick conference tournament flame-outs by California, Stanford and Virginia Tech doomed their at-large hopes, Southern Methodist sits in a tenuous spot less than 36 hours from the NCAA’s selection show.

The Mustangs (20-13) earned a split in Charlotte, defeating Syracuse and losing a tight decision to Louisville. It left them with exactly what they had coming into the week — a borderline postseason profile that was neither overwhelmingly good or bad.

For what it’s worth, ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips believes in SMU’s chances.

But, there is nothing SMU can do about that now. Instead, it has to hope there are no significant surprises over the next two days. And that means keeping an eye on games in three conference tournaments on Saturday.

Atlantic 10. Saint Louis is going to make the tournament whether it wins the A-10 tournament or not, and Virginia Commonwealth might be able to pin down an at-large as well. Far better for SMU for both teams to win on Saturday (Saint Louis against Dayton, VCU against Saint Joseph’s) and remove any obvious bid thieves prior to the final.

SEC. Mississippi has made a surprising three-day run as the SEC’s No. 15 seed, including Friday’s upset of Alabama. If the Rebels pick off third-seeded Arkansas on Saturday, they’ll have matched their win total from the entire conference season this week and stay alive as a possible spoiler for Sunday’s final. SMU will be rooting for the Razorbacks.

Mountain West. It’s a one-bid league if Utah State wins Saturday’s final. But the Aggies are safely in the field regardless, and San Diego State would bump someone else from the field if it can win the Mountain West in its final year in the league.

Best case for SMU? Saint Louis, VCU, Arkansas and Utah State all win today, and there’s space in the field for the Mustangs — assuming the committee judges them ahead of the likes of Auburn and Oklahoma.

East Region

UCLA added a high-end victory over Michigan State on Friday, and the Bruins have the potential to escape an 8/9 game. They’re close to doing so. … One of the handful of seeding changes from the last 24 hours is flipping Vanderbilt and Kansas. The Commodores rank between 10th and 14th in the seven team sheet metrics and are 9-6 in Quad 1 games. It’s hard to justify keeping them on the No. 5 line any longer. …

Nebraska slipped a seed line after its Big Ten quarterfinal loss to Purdue. If they land a No. 3, the Cornhuskers would match the best seed in program history, which they did in 1991. … Coincidentally, Louisiana Tech last reached the tournament in 1991 as the champion of the American South Conference (it merged with the remnants of a fragmented Sun Belt after that season). The Bulldogs face Kennesaw State for the Conference USA title on Saturday.

South Region

Utah State kept a lot of borderline tournament teams happy by dispatching Nevada in the Mountain West semifinals. An Aggies victory over San Diego State will keep the Mountain West a one-bid league and leave a spot open for an Oklahoma, SMU or Texas. …Despite a gaudy NET ranking at No. 8, Illinois is between 16th and 19th in the results-based metrics on the team sheets. And unlike other teams clustered around the No. 3 line such as Alabama (7-7), Gonzaga (7-2), Iowa State (8-7), Michigan State (9-6), Nebraska (9-6), Purdue (9-8) and Virginia (8-3), the Illini is under .500 (7-8) in Quad 1 games. …

No movement this week for Tennessee, which split with Auburn and Vanderbilt and looks solidly like a No. 6 seed. … A Miami-Miami (Ohio) matchup would create some awkward confusion. The teams have actually played nine times previously, but the last time was in 1990.

Midwest Region

Michigan survived a scare from Ohio State and remains on track for the top seed in the Midwest and the No. 2 overall seed in the field. … What do Hofstra, St. John’s, Virginia and Yale have in common? They’re all close enough to Philadelphia that the NCAA can get away with not using its limited charter flights on any of them. The charters issue could lead to a greater emphasis on geography by the committee. …

North Carolina slips a line after Wisconsin’s victory over Illinois nudged its profile forward a bit. The final call on the Tar Heels is a No. 6, plus or minus a line. … Houston as a No. 2 seed in Oklahoma City looks pretty much certain at this point, regardless of its result against Arizona in the Big 12 final.

West Region

This will be Villanova coach Kevin Willard’s eighth NCAA tournament appearance. Four of the first seven resulted in appearances in the 8/9 game. … Wisconsin won at Illinois, Michigan and Purdue and added a neutral-court defeat of Illinois to its profile on Friday. The Badgers have earned their way up to the No. 5 line. …

South Florida plays its first game in the American tournament on Saturday. The Bulls need two victories to earn their first NCAA trip since 2012. … Michigan State’s loss to UCLA could cost it a No. 2 seed, though its body of work gives it a strong case to remain there.

Projected NCAA Tournament bracket

Last four included: Missouri, Virginia Commonwealth, Texas, Southern Methodist

First four on the outside: Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State, Indiana

Next four on the outside: New Mexico, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, California

Moving in: Louisiana Tech, Southern

Moving out: Florida A&M, Sam Houston

Conference call: Southeastern (10), Big Ten (9), Atlantic Coast (8), Big 12 (8), Big East (3), West Coast (3), Atlantic 10 (2), Mid-American (2)

EAST REGION

Greenville, S.C.

(1) ACC/Duke vs. (16) SWAC/Southern-AMERICA EAST/UMBC winner (8) UCLA vs. (9) Central Florida

Portland, Ore.

(5) Kansas vs. (12) MID-AMERICAN/Akron (4) Vanderbilt vs. (13) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Utah Valley

Oklahoma City

(3) Nebraska vs. (14) OHIO VALLEY/Tennessee State (6) Louisville vs. (11) Missouri-Southern Methodist winner

St. Louis

(7) Clemson vs. (10) Texas A&M (2) Iowa State vs. (15) CONFERENCE USA/Louisiana Tech

SOUTH REGION

Philadelphia

(1) Connecticut vs. (16) MEAC/Howard-PATRIOT/Lehigh winner (8) MOUNTAIN WEST/Utah State vs. (9) Ohio State

Tampa, Fla.

(5) Texas Tech vs. (12) SOUTHLAND/McNeese State (4) Illinois vs. (13) SUMMIT/North Dakota State

St. Louis

(3) Purdue vs. (14) HORIZON/Wright State (6) Tennessee vs. (11) Santa Clara

Tampa, Fla.

(7) Miami vs. (10) Miami (Ohio) (2) SEC/Florida vs. (15) SOUTHERN/Furman

MIDWEST REGION

Buffalo, N.Y.

(1) BIG TEN/Michigan vs. (16) NEC/Long Island (8) Georgia vs. (9) Texas Christian

Philadelphia

(5) BIG EAST/St. John’s vs. (12) IVY/YALE (4) Virginia vs. (13) COASTAL/Hofstra

Greenville, S.C.

(3) Alabama vs. (14) SUN BELT/Troy (6) North Carolina vs. (11) Texas-Virginia Commonwealth winner

Oklahoma City

(7) Saint Mary’s vs. (10) Iowa (2) Houston vs. (15) BIG SKY/Idaho

WEST REGION

San Diego

(1) BIG 12/Arizona vs. (16) ATLANTIC SUN/Queens (8) Villanova vs. (9) ATLANTIC 10/Saint Louis

San Diego

(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) BIG SOUTH/High Point (4) Arkansas vs. (13) MISSOURI VALLEY/Northern Iowa

Portland, Ore.

(3) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (14) BIG WEST/UC Irvine (6) Brigham Young vs. (11) AMERICAN/South Florida

Buffalo, N.Y.

(7) Kentucky vs. (10) N.C. State (2) Michigan State vs. (15) METRO ATLANTIC/Siena