Here’s what Duke basketball needs to do to make the NCAA tournament
Duke has one game scheduled before February begins.
Next month brings the final sprint into March, the most important part of the college basketball calendar when the NCAA tournament is played.
For the first time in 26 years, there’s a real possibility the Blue Devils won’t make the NCAA tournament.
The Blue Devils (6-5, 4-3 ACC), after splitting their first 10 games, moved back above the .500 mark with a 75-68 win over Georgia Tech on Tuesday night. To stay there entering February and the final month of regular-season play, they need a win at home over Clemson (10-4, 4-4 ACC) on Saturday.
Duke has needed to work so hard to just get to one game over the break-even mark that any discussion of what could happen on Selection Sunday is coming from outside the program.
“We’re not even talking about the NCAA tournament,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said Monday. “We’ve never talked about it. With all the interruptions, we are just trying to get better and win games and get as many games in as possible.”
The last time Duke missed the NCAA tournament
The last time the NCAA tournament didn’t include Duke was 1995, the season health issues kept Krzyzewski away from the team over the final two months. The Blue Devils finished 13-18, meaning only the ACC tournament title that never happened could have earned them a spot in the field.
Only Kansas has a longer active streak of consecutive NCAA tournament appearances. The Jayhawks last missed the field in 1989, when they were on probation and ineligible to participate. After Duke, the next two longest streaks are Michigan State, which last missed the field in 1997, and Gonzaga, a tournament team from 1999 until the present.
This season, with the pandemic altering teams’ schedules and causing some to go weeks between games, projecting the field will be a bit more difficult.
“You won’t even know what the criteria is until later as far as getting in,” Krzyzewski said. “Hopefully teams keep getting in games. You just don’t know. You just feel thankful that you are playing.”
That said, quality wins will still be important. So will a team’s overall record, its strength of schedule and the quality of its conference.
So here’s a look at where Duke stands in what will be an uphill battle in earning inclusion in the NCAA tournament:
Computer rankings
As of Thursday, the Blue Devils are No. 80 in the NET, the national rankings the NCAA selection committee uses as a sorting tool to determine quality of wins. The NET replaced the RPI and, in previous years when it was used, a team at No. 80 wouldn’t be in consideration for an at-large tournament bid.
Nine ACC teams have better NET rankings than Duke.
Ken Pomeroy’s analytical ratings at KenPom.com has Duke No. 36 in the country.
Quadrants
The selection committee still lumps a team’s wins and losses into one of four quadrants, based on the NET. Quadrant 1 results are of the highest quality, including home games against teams ranked 1-30, neutral site games against teams 1-50 and road games against 1-75.
Duke is 0-4 in those games, having lost at home to No. 7 Illinois and on the road in ACC play to No. 43 Virginia Tech, No. 46 Louisville and No. 65 Pittsburgh.
The Blue Devils are 6-1 against quadrants 2, 3 and 4, including 2-1 against Quadrant 2 and 2-0 each against quadrants 3 and 4.
At 6-5, Duke needs any wins it can get. But the Blue Devils are in particularly desperate need of quality wins to boost their postseason chances.
Bracketology
Predictably, Duke isn’t on the radar of the bracketologists. Bracketmatrix.com compiles projections from all over the country.
On Thursday, out of 77 brackets, three included Duke. The Blue Devils were a 10 seed in one and 12 seed in two others. Respected bracket projectors like ESPN’s Joe Lunardi or Jerry Palm of CBS Sports do not have Duke in the field.
What’s next
Saturday’s game with Clemson (10-4, 4-4 ACC) gives the Blue Devils a chance to give their profile a serious boost. Beating the Tigers, currently No. 50 in the NET, would qualify as a Quadrant 2 win for Duke because it’s being played at home.
Monday’s game at Miami, owner of the ACC’s worst NET ranking at No. 152, would be a Quadrant 3 win.
Next comes a Feb. 6 home game with No. 47 North Carolina, another Quadrant 2 win opportunity at this point.
Based on Thursday’s rankings, Duke has only three chances to snare Quadrant 1 wins — a Feb. 20 home game with No. 6 Virginia, a March 2 game at No. 61 Georgia Tech and the March 6 regular-season finale at UNC.
So gaining a Quadrant 2 win or two, or more, would be in Duke’s best interest.
Clemson at Duke
When: Noon, Saturday
Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham
Watch: ESPN
This story was originally published January 29, 2021 at 8:00 AM.