Sports betting: Why this year’s NCAA Tournament presents a ‘gambler’s fallacy.’ So beware
March is supposed to be mad. This NCAA tournament hasn’t been, at least not yet.
For only the fifth time since the men’s field expanded in 1985 (and only the third time in the 2000s), all of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16.
The only double-digit seed left in the bracket? NC State, the No. 11 seed in the South.
Along gambling lines, the second-round games were particularly chalky. The favorites went 11-5 against the spread and 15-1 straight up. Clemson, a No. 6 seed in the West, was the only underdog to win outright (beating Baylor as a 4.5-point dog).
With such a top-heavy Sweet 16, when will the worm turn? It has to, right? Welcome to the “gambler’s fallacy.” Just because favorites ran wild during the second round doesn’t mean the underdogs have to come up in Round 3.
The odds, just like the fallacy suggest, remain the same. Just because a coin lands on heads five times in a row, it doesn’t change the odds for the sixth flip.
There were three double-digit favorites in the second round (Illinois, Purdue, UConn). They all covered. You could lucidly argue that was both a testament to the strength of those three teams and the weakness of their opponents (Duquesne, Utah State and Northwestern, respectively).
If there’s one rule to follow in gambling: a team’s only as good as its next game. There are exceptions to the rule — and the heater that UConn is on suggests the Huskies might be the exception — but for the most part it’s a simple concept.
A team that performs at a high level — Gonzaga crushing injury-riddled Kansas (89-68) or Duke smashing James Madison (93-55) — will have a difficult time repeating that type of rout.
Conversely, a team that has to labor — Tennessee squeaking past Texas (62-58) or NC State gritting out a win over upstart Oakland (79-73 in OT) — is more likely to play better the next time out.
With that in mind, on with the picks (Last week 4-1):
▪ UNC vs. Alabama (U 174), Thursday, 9:39 p.m.: The total (174) in this game is almost 20 points higher than any of the other seven regional semifinal matchups. That’s because the Crimson Tide have played in 13 games this season where at least one team has hit triple-digits. Given UNC’s defensive efficiency this season, this game feels like it will be closer to the one Alabama just played (133 total points) in the previous round. Pick: Under
▪ Duke vs. Houston (-4.5), Friday, 9:39 p.m.: Duke has been labeled “soft” this season. That’s a bit harsh but the Blue Devils are certainly more skilled than they are gritty this season. No one has ever accused Houston of being soft. The Cougars are tougher than a $2 steak. Duke will have a difficult time repeating its 14-28 performance from the 3-point line in its romp of JMU. Pick: Houston
▪ Creighton vs. Tennessee (-2.5), Friday, 10:09 p.m.: This hasn’t exactly been the tournament for the SEC but the Vols have one thing most of their conference counterparts don’t have: a drought-stopper in guard Dalton Knecht. The Northern Colorado transfer was banging in 3s in Round 1 (4-8 vs. St. Peter’s) but struggling in Round 2 (1-8 vs. Texas). Creighton’s backcourt is favorable matchup for Knecht. Pick: Tennessee
This story was originally published March 27, 2024 at 4:28 PM.