How will NC State handle the second half of the season? Here’s Joe Giglio’s best guess

The first half of N.C. State’s schedule is set up for a favorable start. The Wolfpack plays five of its first six games at home, including its first two ACC contests.

The second half of the schedule will be more of a grind for Dave Doeren’s sixth team. Four of the final six games are on the road and the final home game — Nov. 8 against Wake Forest — comes after a quick turnaround.

I posted my picks for the first six games on Tuesday. Here are my picks for the second half of N.C. State’s schedule:

at Clemson

Date: Oct. 20

Time: TBA. TV: TBA.

Series: Clemson leads, 57-28-1

Last meeting: Clemson, 38-31 (Raleigh); Nov. 4, 2017

If only the rules of bocce counted for college football. N.C. State came oh-so close to beating the Tigers in 2016, then again in 2017 and gave the ACC champions all they wanted in 2015. But close doesn’t count.

As good as Clemson has been over the three-year period (22-2 in the ACC, three league titles, three playoff appearances, a national title) N.C. State hasn’t had any problems hanging with them. The Wolfpack has averaged almost 30 points and more than 425 yards per game against Clemson’s vaunted defense the past three years.

The issue has been closing the deal. N.C. State has had the lead in the second half in each of the past two games (and late in the second quarter in 2015). Getting to the finish line has proved elusive.

Clemson’s the only division foe Doeren hasn’t beaten (0-5). The Tigers have won six straight overall against the Wolfpack and 13 of 14.

N.C. State gets a week off before the trip to Death Valley (so does Clemson) and Doeren’s teams have been good with extra time. The problem here is N.C. State has played Clemson so well recently that it has the Tigers’ full attention. That’s not usually the case when the Tigers have stumbled in ACC play the past two seasons.

N.C. State certainly believes a win over Clemson is overdue but the Tigers keep finding a way (that’s usually how it works when you have a bottomless talent pool). The quest will likely be prolonged another year.

at Syracuse

Date: Oct. 27

Time: TBA. TV: TBA.

Series: N.C. State leads, 10-1

Last meeting: N.C. State, 33-25 (Raleigh); Sept. 30, 2017

When you play a team matters, especially in a year like this in the Atlantic Division where there really isn’t much separation among the six teams not named Clemson.

This is a super dangerous spot on N.C. State’s schedule. If you swap the Orange and Virginia on N.C. State’s schedule, that would change the outlook. Instead, the Orange catch the Wolfpack after what is likely to be an emotional game at Clemson.

The Orange have scored marquee home wins the past two years (Virginia Tech in 2016, Clemson in ’17). They’re also looking at the back half of their schedule as wide-open with Clemson and Florida State already in the rearview mirror.

Quarterback Eric Dungey gave N.C. State’s defense fits last year in Raleigh. If he’s healthy, N.C. State will be in trouble.

Florida State

Date: Nov. 3

Time: TBA. TV: TBA.

Series: Florida State leads, 26-12

Last meeting: N.C. State, 27-21 (Tallahassee, Fla.); Sept. 23, 2017

Who knows what coach Willie Taggart is going to do in his first year at FSU? Apparently, he’s one of the most overrated coaches in college football. I don’t know, he was pretty good at South Florida. We didn’t get to see enough of him at Oregon, in only one year, but he certainly inherits a talented roster from former coach Jimbo Fisher.

N.C. State has traditionally played well at home against the Seminoles. This is also a great spot on FSU’s schedule for the Wolfpack. The Noles host Clemson the previous week.

After a tough stretch with BC, Clemson and Syracuse, N.C. State is likely to pour it all out for this one.

Wake Forest

Date: Nov. 8 (Thursday)

Time: 7:30 p.m. TV: ESPN

Series: N.C. State leads, 66-39-6

Last meeting: Wake Forest, 30-24 (Winston-Salem); Nov. 18, 2017

As bad as N.C. State has been in Winston-Salem, it has been even better at home in this series. Going back to 1986, the Wolfpack has won 15 of 16 against the Deacs at Carter-Finley Stadium. Wake’s lone win came in 2006, the year it won the ACC title.

Quarterback John Wolford and coach Dave Clawson put on a clinic in last year’s Wake win in Winston. Wolford attempted 28 passes and wasn’t sacked once.

Wolford’s clutch fourth-down conversion, on Wake’s last touchdown drive, was as big of a factor in the decision as the controversial fumble by N.C. State receiver Emeka Emezie late in the fourth quarter (Aside: Wake’s probably going to miss Wolford more than it realizes).

Given the chance to have one game back from 2017, here’s guessing the State players would choose this one. That’s not a regret you want to have two years in a row.

at Louisville

Date: Nov. 17

Time: TBA. TV: TBA.

Series: Louisville leads, 6-2

Last meeting: N.C. State, 39-25 (Raleigh); Oct. 5, 2017

Speaking of teams missing their quarterback from last year …

Let’s consider Lamar Jackson ran the ball 139 more times than anyone else on Louisville’s roster last year (and for 1,070 more yards). The 2016 Heisman Trophy winner also threw for 3,660 yards with 27 touchdowns last year.

Even with the best player in college football, the Cards wobbled to a 4-4 ACC record and lost for their first conference game to N.C. State. So it’s not a stretch to imagine the Cards are in for a transition this season without Jackson, the first-round pick of the Baltimore Ravens.

This would be a great year to get Louisville early. That’s not how it works out for the Wolfpack. This November trip, a week before playing rival UNC, is another tricky spot on the schedule.

Louisville is likely be in desperation mode to get to six wins and salvage a bowl bid. Even with the extra few days after the Thursday night game with Wake, this feels like a stumbling block for the Wolfpack.

at North Carolina

Date: Nov. 24

Time: TBA. TV: TBA.

Series: UNC leads, 66-35-6

Last meeting: N.C. State, 33-21 (Raleigh); Nov. 25, 2017

N.C. State has never had a better stretch against UNC. Considering the teams first met 124 years ago, that’s saying something.

The Wolfpack has won 8 of the past 11 games overall and 6 of its past 9 trips to Chapel Hill. Doeren is unbeaten in two games at Kenan Stadium, with the 28-21 win there in 2016 saving his job.

These are two programs headed in opposite directions. Maybe Larry Fedora can change that by November. Maybe not.

Final tally

Overall: 8-4 (4-4 ACC)

Wins: James Madison, Georgia State, West Virginia, Marshall, Virginia, Florida State, Wake Forest, UNC

Losses: Boston College, Clemson, Syracuse, Louisville

Same record as last season. I think most N.C. State fans would take that, especially after losing all the players they did from last year’s team.

Your thoughts?

This story was originally published August 22, 2018 at 9:02 AM.