Will NC State football make a bowl game? The numbers say there’s still a chance

N.C. State football received a much-needed week off after seven straight weeks of play and time to reset ahead of the final five games of the season.

“We’ve had games where we played lights out on defense, had games where we played lights out on offense. Had games where special teams was really poor,” N.C. State head coach Dave Doeren said last week. “We need to put all three phases together. It’s a five-game season now. That’s going to be the focus of this thing, finishing with three-phase football, complementary football, and getting better.”

The Wolfpack is 4-3 overall and 1-2 in ACC play, far lower than it wants to be after squandering opportunities against Duke and Virginia Tech. Its defensive effort was applauded after Notre Dame, a 36-7 loss, keeping the team in the game for three quarters despite the offense’s inability to move the ball downfield.

This wasn’t the position N.C. State wanted to be in. Entering the year, the Wolfpack’s ceiling was around 9-3 and its floor at 4-8.

The team, however, still has a chance to be bowl eligible. The margin of error is slim and the strength of schedule is tougher, but it’s far from impossible.

The Pro Football Focus Power Index lists N.C. State at No. 7 in the ACC and No. 48 in the country, with an estimated 6.6 wins expected this season. Entering the season, it was No. 11 in the ACC and No. 51 nationally.

The current numbers give the Wolfpack an 82% chance of making a bowl game, which is actually 7% higher than PFF had the team listed preseason. The team’s chances to win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff field are negligible.

ESPN’s Power Index is slightly less optimistic on N.C. State. It lists the Pack at No. 59 nationally, which is two spots down from its preseason ranking. The team remains at No. 10 in the ACC, which is where it began, and is estimated to finish the regular season 6-6.

According to the ESPN numbers, the Wolfpack has a 69% chance of making a bowl game — up 5% from August — while it is not given a statistical chance to win the conference or make the playoff field.

A portion of the fan base is outwardly critical of Doeren and the administration for retaining the head coach But Athletic Director Boo Corrigan is not in panic mode.

“Let’s remind ourselves we’re 4-3, we’re not 0-7 at this point in time,” Corrigan said on his radio show this week. “The bye week is hitting at a good time for us.”

Here’s how the rest of the season could play out. (Note: All stats reflect games played through Friday, Oct. 17)

Oct. 25, at Pitt

Predicted record: 4-4

What to know: Pittsburgh was not a team expected to be a contender this season, but the predictions have not been completely accurate. Based on the first six games, Pitt has looked like a solid team in the ACC.

It picked up wins over Florida State (34-31) and Boston College (48-7), and its lone conference loss came to Louisville (34-27) by one possession.

True freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel — who was third on the Pitt depth chart until two weeks ago — led the Panthers to wins over Boston College and Florida State. He completed 20 of 29 passes for 321 yards, two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions in the win over the Seminoles.

Running back Desmond Reid was out with an injury for nearly a month but returned to play last week. He contributed 155 yards and two touchdowns.

According to PFF, the Panthers rank No. 7 in the ACC with a 90.6 offensive grade and No. 3 with a 91.7 defensive grade.

Success meter: Tossup but possible loss. N.C. State will enter Pittsburgh after its first bye, and the urgency to pick up a win will be high after the blowout loss at Notre Dame.

Pitt looks to be a more well-rounded team this season than it’s been in the two most recent years, and the Wolfpack will have to be disciplined in all three phases of the game to win. If the team were playing at home, N.C. State would have the edge, but another road game against a rolling Pitt team makes it seem unlikely.

N.C. State’s defense has shown it can stop the run, which will be imperative against Pitt, but it hasn’t always been consistent. Explosive plays remain to be an issue, and missed tackles could swing the game in Pitt’s favor.

Meanwhile, the Wolfpack offense looked like a shell of itself in South Bend after the team finished with a season-low seven points. CJ Bailey, however, does not typically have back-to-back bad games and should be expected to bounce back in Week 9.

The Panthers lead the ACC in rushing defense, holding opponents to 83.5 yards per game. A decent portion of N.C. State’s success will come from whether Hollywood Smothers and Duke Scott can find gaps and make plays. Notre Dame’s run defense made the offense one-dimensional, and the Pack can’t afford to have that for a second game in a row.

The two teams are tied 5-5-1 in the series, while N.C. State has won three in a row. According to PFF, the Wolfpack remains ahead of the Panthers in its power rankings. ESPN, however, has Pitt listed one spot above N.C. State.

Up next: Pitt hosts N.C. State at 3:30 p.m. Saturday.

Nov. 1, Georgia Tech

Predicted record: 4-5

What to know: Georgia Tech started the season 6-0 and is already bowl eligible after picking up statement wins over Colorado, Clemson, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. It is one of the four teams with the highest probability of winning the ACC, according to PFF and ESPN.

Quarterback Haynes King has been the go-to guy on offense, as expected, leading the ACC with nine touchdowns scored and scoring per game (10.8 points). He ranks No. 6 and No. 4 nationally, in the respective categories. As a passer, King has four touchdowns and one interception.

As a team, the Yellow Jackets are one of the top offenses in FBS, averaging nearly 37 points and 477 yards per game. The offensive line has limited opposing teams’ pass rushing efforts and opened up holes for King and the running backs to make plays on the ground.

The defense isn’t forcing a ton of turnovers, but Georgia Tech is holding opponents to 21 points per game.

PFF lists the Yellow Jackets one spot above the Wolfpack in its ACC power rankings, but there is a substantial margin between the two teams. ESPN lists Georgia Tech as the fifth-best overall team in the ACC, five spots ahead of N.C. State.

Success meter: Probable loss. The Wolfpack was solidly in the 2024 matchup in Atlanta. This time, N.C. State hosts Georgia Tech at Carter-Finley Stadium before the Pack’s second bye. The Yellow Jackets lead the series, 21-11, and have won four of the last five. N.C. State has good pieces, but it hasn’t always shown up when needed. Georgia Tech beat Virginia Tech by 15 points, while the Pack lost to the Hokies at home. Expect the Yellow Jackets to be heavily favored.

Up next: Georgia Tech hosts Syracuse at noon Saturday.

Nov. 15, at Miami

Predicted record: 4-6

What to know: Miami is the heavy favorite to win the ACC, according to ESPN, PFF and five major U.S. sports books. The Hurricanes started the season 5-0, with a resume that included victories over Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida and Florida State. The Gators were the only unranked team in that stretch. It lost on Friday, however, to unranked Louisville.

Miami was picked by the ACC media to finish No. 2 in the ACC behind Clemson, but it has proven to be a stronger team to start the season and has been one of the best teams in the nation. ESPN and PFF both give the Hurricanes at least a 70% chance of making the College Football Playoff ahead of Week 8 and have virtually guaranteed bowl eligibility.

The Hurricanes lead the ACC in scoring defense (15.3 points per game) and rank No. 8 in scoring offense (32.7 ppg). They average more than 412 yards per game while holding opponents under 300.

Entering Friday, Miami led the conference in turnover margin (1.2), turnovers lost (3), tackles for loss allowed per game (3.2) and team completion percentage (.732). After quarterback Carson Beck threw four interceptions in the loss to Louisville, those numbers dropped. The Hurricanes now rank No. 5 in the ACC for turnover margin (0.5) and No. 3 for turnovers lost (7), while still leading in the other two categories.

PFF lists the Hurricanes as the third-highest graded offense in the ACC (83.3) and the second-best defense (93). On the season, the site ranks Miami as the best team in the conference in the 2025 performance grades.

Success meter: Probable loss. Neither the fans nor the team wants to see a four-game losing streak, but unless something fundamentally changes for N.C. State — this could be due to injuries on the Hurricanes’ roster or a significantly higher level of play for the Pack — it’s unlikely Miami will lose. The Hurricanes showed they’re beatable, but Louisville is features the best overall defense (274 ypg) and best passing defense (170.5 ypg) in the ACC. N.C. State, meanwhile, ranks No. 14 in the conference for total defense allowed.

Prior to its loss, PFF gave Miami a 6% chance of winning the national title, while ESPN bumps that estimation to 8%. The team has, by far, the strongest record in the ACC and looks every bit the part of a conference title team.

The Canes lead the series 11-6 and have seven wins in the last 10 meetings. The Wolfpack picked up a win in 2023 as part of its five-game winning streak late in the season, but Miami has not lost to the ACC foe at home since 2007.

Up next: Miami hosts Stanford at 7 p.m. Saturday.

Nov. 21, Florida State

Predicted record: 5-6

What to know: Florida State is in a precarious position once again. The Seminoles started the season with three straight victories, including the opening-week thrashing over Alabama. Things have gone downhill quickly. They are on a three-game losing streak and have not beaten an ACC opponent in more than a year.

The Seminoles, statistically, are still a strong team. They rank in the ACC top five in 20 categories, according to the NCAA. FSU leads the conference in total offense (536.5 yards per game), scoring (44.2 points per game), yards per completion (15.6) and total first downs (106).

Florida State has relied heavily on quarterback Tommy Castellanos, who has 1,365 passing yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions. He’s been sacked six times.

On defense, Florida State is holding opponents to 23 points per game but struggling to pick up stops in the red zone and on third- and fourth-down conversion attempts.

PFF and ESPN have significantly different numbers when evaluating the Seminoles’ outlook for the rest of the season. PFF gives FSU a 66% chance of winning six games, while ESPN gives the team a 94% chance.

Success meter: Tossup but possible win. The Seminoles have a 27-16 record over N.C. State, but the Wolfpack has won three straight, including a one-point victory in 2022 and 10-11 record at home.

The Wolfpack, however, beat Virginia and Virginia beat FSU. In theory, N.C. State has a shot.

Despite the struggles this season, N.C. State’s defensive front has players who can pressure Castellanos, and the versatility of the offense has been a strong suit.

Plus, if the previous three games go as the math predicts, N.C. State will be in must-win mode to remain in contention for bowl eligibility.

Up next: Florida State is off in Week 9. The Seminoles return to action on Nov. 1 when they host Wake Forest. The time has not been determined.

Nov. 29, North Carolina

Predicted record: 6-6

What to know: To say the Bill Belichick era has started poorly would be an understatement. North Carolina started its season with three losses of 25-plus points to Power Four opponents. Its 34-9 loss to Central Florida sticks out in particular, because UCF followed its victory with three consecutive losses in Big 12 play. Then, on Friday night, it lost to California on the road, the game book ended by a pair of fumbles.

The Tar Heels are statistically one of the worst teams in FBS football, and they haven’t looked cohesive on the field, despite looking improved in some areas against the Golden Bears. They entered the game ranked last out of 134 teams in total first downs (74) and No. 131 in total offense (263.8 yards per game).

UNC rose to No. 129 for first downs (92) but remained at No. 131 for yards per game (267.7) after its trip to Berkeley. Carolina still ranks 100 or worse in 12 other categories.

On offense, quarterback Gio Lopez has not lived up to his billing and Max Johnson’s mobility, or lack of it, is more of a liability than an asset. There are no major stars, though running back Demon June’s 266 rushing yards have been a positive, and that’s hurting Carolina.

One of UNC’s strengths, however, has come in the red zone. It ranks No. 6 in the nation for red zone defense, holding teams to 16 scores on 23 attempts (69.6%), up from 65% prior to the game. Of those scores, nine were touchdowns. It allowed Cal to score three red zone TDs.

The defense has still given up 25 points and 360 yards per contest this fall. Against Power Four opponents, UNC has allowed 35.3 points per game. That is down from 40 points allowed prior to the Cal loss, in which the Tar Heels gave up just 21 points.

PFF lists Carolina as No. 15 overall in the ACC season grades. It is last in the offensive grade (61.6) and ninth on defense (85.8).

Success meter: Probable win. UNC possesses a 68-40 record over N.C. State, but the Wolfpack won four straight and seven of the last 10. Based on the product Carolina has put on the field, it doesn’t look promising for the Tar Heels. Though N.C. State has struggled at time this season, it has still been a stronger overall team.

In fact, UNC was listed at No. 15 in the PFF ACC power rankings prior to the Cal game. It had a 21% chance of winning six games.

As of Saturday, the Tar Heels were last in the ACC on the ESPN power index, receiving a 2.8% chance of bowl eligibility; a drop of nearly two percentage points from the probability before picking up its third straight loss. Carolina, alongside Stanford and Wake Forest, are at the bottom of ACC Championship odds.

Even if the Wolfpack secures bowl eligibility before hosting the Heels, N.C. State — despite some of its hiccups — will likely pick up a fifth consecutive win over the Tar Heels.

Up next: UNC hosts Virginia at noon on Saturday.

Jadyn Watson-Fisher

The News & Observer