With Bill Belichick at the helm, can UNC Football reach 8 wins in 2025?

Another late-season skid for UNC football — this time culminating in a 6-7 finish and three straight losses to close 2024 — are reasons why Bill Belichick is now the Tar Heels’ head coach and Mack Brown is not.

The move is part of a massive investment North Carolina is making in football, one UNC leadership certainly hopes will lead to massive returns.

But first, the team has to win.

ESPN’s Football Power Index places North Carolina’s chances of achieving bowl eligibility at 70.6%. The Pro Football Focus rating have the Tar Heels’ chances at 69% while projecting 6 to 7 wins this season.

That said, UNC’s weak strength of schedule — ranked 60th in the nation by PFF — should help the Tar Heels out. While the slate features a challenging mix of opponents, highlighted by top-35 matchups (per PFF rankings) against Clemson (No. 13), Duke (No. 26), Syracuse (No. 35) and TCU (No. 32), lower-ranked teams like Charlotte (No. 111), Stanford (No. 104) and Virginia (No. 83) should give North Carolina some easy wins.

Here’s a look at the Tar Heels’ schedule:

Mon, Sept. 1 vs. TCU

Predicted record: 0-1

Quick take: TCU is coming off a 9-4 finish to the 2024 season under Sonny Dykes, who’s now in his fourth year. Quarterback Josh Hoover returns after a solid campaign, as does much of the Horned Frogs’ defensive depth. UNC, meanwhile, is something of a mystery heading into the opener, especially with concerns on the offensive line after the Austin Blaske injury.

UNC success rate: These two teams have played each other three times, with the last matchup coming in 1997. This time, UNC is a 3.5-point underdog per PFF, meaning TCU is favored by a field goal. With so many unknowns for the Tar Heels, it will be exceedingly difficult for TCU to scout against this new-look North Carolina team. Dykes referenced this on a Thursday radio appearance on KTCK-AM, saying: “who really knows exactly what we’re gonna see.” We’ll find out soon, but the Horned Frogs should have the edge.

Sat, Sept. 6, at Charlotte

Predicted record: 1-1

Quick take: Charlotte has mustered just one winning season (2019) in its 10 years at the FBS level — a remarkable stretch of consistent struggles. Despite an additional 2,500 temporary seats adding to the game-day atmosphere, the 49ers are still in transition after a coaching change and have a roster depleted by a transfer portal exodus of more than 15 starters.

UNC success rate: This should be an easy win for the Tar Heels, who beat the 49ers, 38-20, last season. Charlotte simply hasn’t shown the ability to compete at this level. Quarterbacks Grayson Loftis (Duke transfer) and Conner Harrell (ex-UNC) will be familiar to fans, but relatively unproven — outside of a solid Loftis performance against the Tar Heels in 2023.

Sat, Sept. 13, Richmond

Predicted record: 2-1

Quick take: Assuming a loss in Week 0, Richmond’s trip to Chapel Hill offers a prime opportunity for Belichick to earn his first home win. The Spiders are tied for No. 22 in the AFCA FCS Coaches Poll and advanced to the second round of the FCS Playoffs last year. Still, the sheer gap in resources and talent should show on the field.

UNC success rate: North Carolina hasn’t lost to an FCS team since a Furman upset in 1999. The Tar Heels should handle Richmond comfortably to improve to 2-1.

Sat, Sept. 20, at UCF

Predicted record: 3-1

Quick take: UNC wraps up its non-conference slate with a tricky road trip to Orlando — its second Big 12 opponent in four weeks — against a roster that’s seen major offseason turnover. New head coach Scott Frost, who played for Belichick when he was the Jets’ defensive coordinator in the late 1990s, is returning just four starters from last year. Right tackle Paul Rubelt is UCF’s only returning offensive starter. That said, Myles Montgomery and Jaden Nixon should form a dynamic backfield. Nyjalik Kelly, one of the top all-around Big 12 edge defenders last season per PFF metrics, will be a problem for the Tar Heels.

UNC success rate: This first-time matchup between the two programs will be North Carolina’s first true test on the road. More importantly, it’ll be a tone-setter heading into its conference slate and matchup with Clemson.

Sat, Oct. 4, Clemson

Predicted record: 3-2

Quick take: Clemson remains the ACC’s gold standard and presents UNC — and its first-year college coach — with a daunting conference opener. The Tigers simply overwhelm the Tar Heels with talent, especially in the trenches, where their monster defensive line should dominate UNC’s injury-plagued offensive front. Cade Klubnik is a solid quarterback and amongst the most improved signal-callers in the nation last season. As for his options? Klubnik has two of the country’s best wide receivers in Antonio Williams and Bryant Wesco Jr.

Simply put, this is a Clemson roster built for a national title run. UNC aspires to reach Clemson’s level, but for the time being, the Tigers’ edge up front and overall depth should prove decisive.

UNC success rate: History is not on North Carolina’s side. UNC trails the all-time series 19-40, having lost six straight and nine of the last 10 games. The Tar Heels would need an upset. Even staying competitive would be a statement of progress. The Tigers should handle business against the Tar Heels, unlike the close call in 2019.

Fri, Oct. 17, at California

Predicted record: 4-2

Quick take: UNC’s cross-country trip to Berkeley is a pivotal ACC matchup and chance to rebound after a likely loss to Clemson. The Tar Heels will be coming off the second bye in three weeks, but may struggle to adjust to the “Pac-12 After Dark” conditions. Meanwhile, the Golden Bears suffered heavy losses to the transfer portal, including star running back Jaydn Ott and starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Cal is turning to a true freshman, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, to replace Mendoza. That places a heavy burden on the teenager. He’ll be leading a team that hasn’t had a winning season since 2019 against an all-time NFL coaching legend.

UNC success rate: There’s little to go off of here, historically speaking. North Carolina is down 0-2 all time vs. Cal, losing two meetings in 2017 and 2018 by one score or less. The Tar Heels’ first ACC football foray to the West Coast could go either way, but UNC should be able to rely on its more experienced QB to bring home a win.

Sat, Oct. 25, Virginia

Predicted record: 5-2

Quick take: UNC returns home from the West Coast to face Virginia, a team entering a make-or-break season for coach Tony Elliott. The Cavaliers have made some upgrades through the transfer portal, especially at quarterback. TCU/North Texas Chandler Morris brings a gunslinger mentality, but is also turnover-prone.

UNC success rate: The Tar Heels have a chance to follow up last year’s convincing 41-14 victory in Charlottesville with a win at home — where UNC has a 33-14 record against Virginia. This is a very winnable game for North Carolina.

Fri, Oct. 31, at Syracuse

Predicted record: 5-3

Quick take: The Tar Heels head to Syracuse for a Halloween-night showdown under the lights at the JMA Wireless Dome. The rejuvenated Orange, led by second-year coach Fran Brown, are coming off a 10-win campaign. They have tapped Steve Angeli, a Notre Dame transfer who posted an impressive 82.3 PFF grade last season as the Fighting Irish’s backup, to be the starting quarterback. Angeli has experience on big stages — including last year’s College Football Playoff — and will have a promising group of targets at his arsenal. Look out for Darrell Gill Jr., a 6-foot-3 wideout with excellent hands who has never dropped a pass in his career, per PFF.

UNC success rate: Recent games have gone both ways, with UNC boasting a two-game win streak in this matchup. Both of Syracuse’s wins this century came in multiple overtimes: a 2OT win in 2018 and a 3OT win in 2003. The Orange should have a slight edge at home this time around.

Sat, Nov. 8, Stanford

Predicted record: 6-3

Quick take: Any renewed optimism at Stanford thanks to Frank Reich and Andrew Luck has certainly evaporated after Hawaii placekicker Kansei Matsuzawa’s game-winning 38-yard field goal made the Cardinal the early laughing stock this college football season. Reich took over as interim coach for a Stanford team with four straight 3-9 finishes. It already looks like this squad is heading for another disappointing season.

UNC success rate: The Cardinal hold a 2-1 record in the all-time series, though the programs haven’t met since 2016. This year, the Tar Heels should take care of business against Stanford.

Sat, Nov. 15, at Wake Forest

Predicted record: 7-3

Quick take: North Carolina will face a new-look Wake Forest program under Jake Dickert, who is taking over for Dave Clawson. Dickert, a defensive-minded coach, led Washington State to three bowl games in his previous spot. He inherits a roster with strong defensive returners in linebackers Quincy Bryant and Dylan Hazen, but the passing attack is a mystery. The Demon Deacons lost their top four receivers from last year.

UNC success rate: North Carolina has historically controlled the series against Wake Forest, holding a 73-36-2 record (going back to 1888!) and having won four straight. The last five matchups have been decided by seven or less points. This should be another close one, but a win, for the Tar Heels.

Sat, Nov. 22, Duke

Predicted record: 8-3

Quick take: The Victory Bell rivalry returns to Chapel Hill this fall for a pivotal November clash against the Blue Devils and Manny Diaz. At Belichick’s introductory press conference in December, he said his first words were “Beat Duke.” To make those words a reality, he’ll have to get past a dangerous Blue Devils squad with an elite secondary led by cornerback Chandler Rivers and safety Terry Moore. Tulane transfer Darian Mensah — reportedly worth $8 million — brings upside at quarterback.

UNC success rate: Duke won the last meeting and will bring confidence and an elite defense to Chapel Hill. Still, UNC’s recent dominance at Kenan Stadium — the Tar Heels have beat the Blue Devils in the last three home games — give North Carolina a slight edge.

Sat, Nov. 29, at NC State

Predicted record: 8-4

Quick take: UNC closes the regular season in Raleigh against Dave Doeren and the Wolfpack — one of the most frustrating opponents for the Tar Heels in recent years. N.C. State is coming off its first losing season since 2019, but brings back talented sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey and star tight end Justin Joly. And, of course, even with a disappointing 2024 campaign, the Wolfpack still managed to take care of business against Tar Heels.

UNC success rate: N.C. State has won four straight games against UNC. This matchup should make it five. Simply put, the Wolfpack have been able to consistently muster an edge — a sheer hunger — in this rivalry, while North Carolina hasn’t. The Tar Heels will need a clean performance to end the season on a high note, but a road environment will make that tough.

This story was originally published August 25, 2025 at 5:30 AM.